美国劳动力市场企稳。推迟发布的1月全美就业非农数据增长意外加速，为此前就业增长疲弱的一年画 上阶段性句号。市场此前预计1月新增非农就业人数在5万—7.5万，本次13万数据大超预期，可能会促 使美联储进一步推迟降息，但美国劳动力市场下行风险并未消散，结构性失衡仍存。 意外增长 美国劳工统计局周三发布报告称，1月，新增非农就业人数13万，创2025年下半年以来最大增幅（均为 初值）；与此同时，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.3%。分析人士指出，本次报告显示美国劳动力市 场趋于稳定，预计美联储短期内将继续按兵不动。 劳工统计局数据显示，1月，美国在医疗保健、社会援助和建筑业实现就业增长，而联邦政府和金融业 的就业减少。其中，医疗保健业当月新增就业8.2万人，社会援助行业增加4.2万人，建筑业新增3.3万 人。薪资增长方面，1月私营部门非农员工平均时薪上涨15美分，至37.17美元，同比增长3.7%。 过去数月，美国就业市场呈现出一种"冻结式"状态：企业并未大规模裁员，但也普遍放缓新增招聘。这 种格局使毕业生更难进入职场，也让不少失业者陷入漫长且收效甚微的求职过程。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，失业率持续保持温和 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]