[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 港股通成分股调入调出效应与预测 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]陈原文 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080003 | | 0755-82797057 | | chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 安宁宁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，陈原文并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 金融工程:成长质量选股探讨 | 2026-02-13 | | --- | --- | | 基于卷积神经网络的指数轮 | 2026-02-13 | | 动策略:行业主题轮动研究报 | | | 告 | | | 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分 | 2026 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260302 科技阵痛与地缘阴霾交织，静待"两会"破 局之机——港股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 一、本周回顾（2026/2/23-2/27）：全球主要市场涨跌互现，韩国综指、日 经 225 指数涨幅居前，印度 SENSEX30、恒生科技指数跌幅居前。恒生科 技下跌1.4%，恒指上涨0.8%，恒生国企下跌1.1%。行业上，原材料业（4.8%）、 金融业（2.9%）、地产建筑业（2.8%）领涨；医疗保健业（-5%）、非必需 性消费（-1.8%）领跌。 本周港股表现分化。美股围绕英伟达财报和"HALO"交易，市场对 AI 支 出的担忧持续，谨慎对待轻资产"代码"叙事。在地缘风险持续上升和中东 冲突的背景下，重资产特性的企业和实物资产在近期成为共识的避险选择， 原材料、能源、工业等中上游行业获得资金青睐。 南向资金减速流入。港股通净流入 67 亿元，港股成交额占比降至本周 32%。 净流入：资讯科技业、非必需性消费、地产建筑业；净流出：电讯业、公用 事业。净买入 TOP：美团、小米集团、腾讯。 本周内地投向中国香港市场的 ETF（港股通+QDII）净流入 ...

如果你是一位港股投资者，今年的账户表现可能会让你怀疑人生。 第二个驱动力：大宗商品价格持续上行，能源原材料板块业绩直接兑现。 打开账户一看，有的人赚得盆满钵满，有的人亏得怀疑人生。这不是运气问题，而是你有没有站对队的 问题。 来看一组数据：截至2026年2月底，恒生综合行业指数呈现出罕见的极致分化。原材料业暴涨23.62%， 地产建筑业大涨20.02%，能源业涨18.8%，工业涨15.87%。而另一边，信息科技业大跌9.74%，电讯业 跌2.39%，非必需性消费微跌0.65%。 首尾相差超过33个百分点。这意味着，如果你年初买的是原材料，现在已经赚了将近四分之一；如果你 买的是科技股，可能已经亏了十个点。冰火两重天，不过如此。 那么，究竟是什么原因导致了如此剧烈的分化？ 说白了，市场的定价逻辑正在发生根本性转变——从"讲故事"转向"看业绩"，从"成长叙事"转向"政策 确定性"。 第一个驱动力：稳增长政策超预期发力，地产链风险基本解除。 这是本轮分化最核心的政策逻辑。2025年底中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"后，2026年开 年政策密集落地：商业用房首付比例从50%直接降到30%，二手房增值税减免， ...

● 本报记者 万宇 2月20日，春节假期后港股市场率先开盘。截至2月25日，恒生指数累计上涨0.22%，恒生科技指数累计 下跌近2%。同时，港股市场板块表现分化，电讯业、能源业、工业、原材料业等板块上涨，必需性消 费、综合企业、医疗保健业等板块出现调整。个股方面，大昌微线集团、玖源集团、普天通信集团、亚 博科技控股等大幅上涨，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、泡泡玛特等下跌。 民生加银基金的基金经理刘欣也对港股市场保持相对乐观，但他同时提示，港股性价比相对低于A股市 场。 港股市场春节假期之后持续波动，部分板块表现分化。公募基金在市场调整之际布局港股，把握后市机 会。多家基金机构仍然对港股投资持相对积极的看法，看好科技与周期品种等。 资金持续布局 诺安基金认为，港股近期表现波动是市场担忧流动性收紧和港股特色结构吸引力下降的共同结果。在整 体信用周期震荡甚至阶段性走弱的情形下，市场指数层面上行空间有限，机会主要来自景气结构方面。 虽然近期港股表现不尽如人意，但资金近来持续积极布局港股。统计显示，截至2月24日，今年以来份 额增加前十的ETF中，有一半是投资港股市场的跨境ETF，华泰柏瑞恒生科技ETF份额增加134.36亿 份 ...

从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

美国劳动力市场企稳。推迟发布的1月全美就业非农数据增长意外加速，为此前就业增长疲弱的一年画 上阶段性句号。市场此前预计1月新增非农就业人数在5万—7.5万，本次13万数据大超预期，可能会促 使美联储进一步推迟降息，但美国劳动力市场下行风险并未消散，结构性失衡仍存。 意外增长 美国劳工统计局周三发布报告称，1月，新增非农就业人数13万，创2025年下半年以来最大增幅（均为 初值）；与此同时，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.3%。分析人士指出，本次报告显示美国劳动力市 场趋于稳定，预计美联储短期内将继续按兵不动。 劳工统计局数据显示，1月，美国在医疗保健、社会援助和建筑业实现就业增长，而联邦政府和金融业 的就业减少。其中，医疗保健业当月新增就业8.2万人，社会援助行业增加4.2万人，建筑业新增3.3万 人。薪资增长方面，1月私营部门非农员工平均时薪上涨15美分，至37.17美元，同比增长3.7%。 过去数月，美国就业市场呈现出一种"冻结式"状态：企业并未大规模裁员，但也普遍放缓新增招聘。这 种格局使毕业生更难进入职场，也让不少失业者陷入漫长且收效甚微的求职过程。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，失业率持续保持温和 ...

Group 1 - The January non-farm employment report, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is expected to reveal a moderate slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated addition of approximately 70,000 jobs, slightly above December's 50,000 [1] - The core characteristic of the current U.S. labor market is a structural balance of "low hiring, low layoffs," indicating that while there are no large-scale layoffs, the pace of job creation has significantly slowed [6] - The upcoming report will include an annual benchmark revision, which could potentially revise employment data down by as much as 910,000, marking a historical record, although some analysts expect the final adjustment to be around 720,000 [7] Group 2 - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding the interpretation of revised employment data have emerged, with some officials suggesting that job growth may have been overestimated, while others argue that the economy remains resilient enough to maintain current interest rates [8] - The labor market is experiencing a return to normalcy rather than a sudden collapse in demand, driven by demographic changes and labor supply constraints, rather than a drastic drop in demand [9] - The healthcare sector remains one of the few areas still expanding, but its sustainability will be crucial for assessing the stability of employment structures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index Company announced that the technology and biotechnology sectors will perform prominently in the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, with both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index achieving their best annual performance since their inception. In this context, the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index will be launched in January 2026, combining the constituents of both indices into a single index to highlight these two key themes [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Indices - The Hang Seng Technology Index recorded a 23.5% increase in 2025, marking its highest annual growth since its launch in July 2020 [3]. - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index achieved a remarkable 64.5% increase in 2025, representing its best annual performance since its inception in December 2019 [3]. - The strong performance of these indices is driven by structural factors and improvements in fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector in China is a focal point, receiving clear and long-term policy support, with "significantly improving the level of technological self-reliance" being a major goal in China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) [6]. - Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key area of market focus, with Chinese AI models gaining global recognition [6]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index represents 30 of the largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong, focusing on areas such as smart technology, cloud computing, digital commerce, and fintech [6]. Group 3: Biotechnology Sector - The Chinese biotechnology sector has gained significant attention due to the increasing global recognition of innovative drugs developed in China, with the total value of outbound licensing transactions for innovative drugs reaching a record high of $136 billion in 2025 [7]. - This record transaction volume indicates a significant enhancement in the global competitiveness and technical capabilities of the Chinese biotechnology industry [7]. - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, which tracks the performance of the largest 30 biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong, recorded a historic 64% annual increase in 2025 and continued to rise by 9% in January 2026 [8]. Group 4: Launch of the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index - The Hang Seng Dual Technology Index, launched on January 9, 2026, combines the two themes of technology and biotechnology, with a weight allocation of 75% to the Hang Seng Technology Index and 25% to the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [12]. - The index recorded a 36% increase in 2025, with a continued upward trend into 2026, reflecting ongoing market interest in Chinese innovation themes [12]. - As of January 30, 2026, the index had a one-year annualized volatility of 34%, lower than the 35% and 40% of the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, respectively, indicating a balanced risk profile [12].

A-Share Market - The A-share market exhibited a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.44% [6] - Major indices showed mixed performance, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recording positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines [6] - Sector performance was diverse, with cyclical and value sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals performing well, while growth sectors like computers, power equipment, new energy, and automobiles faced significant declines [6] - The market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with precious metals and resource cyclical sectors initially strong but later retreating due to fluctuations in international gold prices, indicating rapid shifts in market sentiment and short-term speculative influences [6][7] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, supporting the investment logic in growth directions [6] Outlook for A-Share Market - The short-term outlook suggests a continuation of structural trends, but increased volatility is anticipated. Cyclical sectors that were previously strong may face correction pressures if lacking sustained catalysts [7] - With the Spring Festival approaching, the period after the festival until the Two Sessions may present a more certain upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic positioning post-festival [7] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed strong overall performance this week, with major indices rising, including a 2.38% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 1.71% rise in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the technology sector [8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare sectors saw slight declines [8] - The market exhibited complex and differentiated characteristics, with a rebound in property stocks due to rising policy expectations, while gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced significant fluctuations influenced by international gold price volatility [8] - Despite a slight decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index, certain AI concept stocks like Baidu and Alibaba remained active due to advancements in AI chips, highlighting the sustained appeal of AI as a long-term driver [8] Outlook for Hong Kong Market - The outlook for the Hong Kong market suggests a potential continuation of structural upward trends, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a recovery in A-share sentiment [9] - Continued improvement in AI demand is expected to benefit the technology sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties and consider a prudent allocation strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential [9]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly companies integrating AI technologies, has shown significant growth, with Ark Health experiencing a surge of over 76% in stock price, while WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics led the blue-chip stocks with notable gains [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.9% to close at 26,848.47 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 315.19 billion, an increase from HKD 306.22 billion in the previous trading day [2]. - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, 53 stocks increased while 33 declined, with WuXi AppTec rising by 8.30% and WuXi Biologics by 5.85% [4]. - Notable stock performances included Alibaba, which increased by 3.63%, and China Life, which rose by 3.51% [4]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Ark Health's stock opened with a peak increase of 76.37%, closing at HKD 3.93 per share, marking a daily increase of 65.8% due to its collaboration with Tencent Health in the "AI + Chronic Disease Management" sector [8][9]. - WuXi AppTec's stock price surged by 9.66% to close at HKD 120 per share, driven by a positive earnings forecast indicating a projected net profit growth of approximately 102.65% for 2025 [10][12]. - WuXi Biologics also saw a significant increase, with a maximum rise of 6.92%, closing at HKD 39.78 per share, as the company prepares to present at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference [16][17]. Group 3: Financial Projections - WuXi AppTec's earnings forecast includes an expected revenue of approximately HKD 45.46 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with adjusted net profit projected at HKD 14.96 billion, a 41.33% increase [12][13]. - WuXi Biologics anticipates signing a record 209 new projects in 2025, with a focus on expanding its commercial pipeline and maintaining a positive outlook for revenue growth in 2026 [20].