Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced quarterly index adjustments effective after market close on December 5, 2025, with changes to major indices including the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index will include Innovent Biologics with a weight of 0.91%, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 88 to 89 [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will add China Hongqiao, Innovent Biologics, and Yum China with weights of 1.30%, 1.21%, and 0.91% respectively, while removing New Hope Energy and others, maintaining a total of 50 stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech Index will include Leapmotor with a weight of 0.98%, while ASMPT will be removed, keeping the total at 30 stocks [1] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will add six companies, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 503 to 509 [1] - The adjustments are expected to lead to increased trading volumes on December 5, as passive funds may rebalance to minimize tracking errors [3] Group 3 - The adjustments will increase the representation of healthcare and industrial sectors in the Hang Seng Index, with healthcare rising from 2.9% to 4.0% and industrial from 8.8% to 9.1% [3] - Financial and consumer sectors will see a decline in representation, with financial dropping from 33.6% to 32.9% and consumer from 27.4% to 26.4% [3] - Multiple institutions express optimism about the future performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors [3][4] Group 4 - UBS highlights that support for private enterprises and capital markets, along with liquidity and potential inflows from domestic and international investors, will continue to bolster the market [5] - The outlook for 2026 predicts a rise in non-financial profit growth for overseas Chinese stocks from 10% to around 15% [4] - The market is seen as entering a favorable positioning phase, with recommendations to focus on underperforming sectors such as consumer services and construction [4]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced volatility this week due to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a pullback in AI stocks across most markets [1][2] - The VIX index in the US stock market rose sharply, exceeding 23, indicating increased market uncertainty [2][11] - The current P/E ratios for major indices are high, with the TAMAMA Technology Index at 37.1, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 47.6, and the Nasdaq Index at 41, suggesting that tech stocks in the US are under valuation pressure [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw slight increases of 0.08% and 0.34% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 0.45% [2][11] - The healthcare sector within the S&P 500 had the highest increase of 3.87%, while the consumer discretionary sector saw the largest decline of 2.74% [11][15] - Concerns about an AI bubble and potential credit issues are prevalent among Wall Street institutions, leading to expectations of further adjustments in the tech sector [1][11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 1.26%, 1.41%, and 3.01% [2][23] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 0.42% [23] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed significant growth, with a 7.18% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector faced a minor decline of 0.82% [27] Economic Data Insights - The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to -7.4, down from -5.4, indicating a decline in investor sentiment [3][39] - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 25, up from 22.7, suggesting improved economic outlook among investors [39] - Japan's PPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.66%, down from 2.75%, reflecting potential inflationary pressures [37][39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks from the analyst-recommended stock pool based on both fundamental and technical aspects, focusing on stocks with fundamental support and technical resonance[13][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on events such as analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15]. - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the stocks in the analyst-recommended stock pool from both fundamental and technical dimensions[15]. - **Step 3**: Select stocks that exhibit both fundamental support and technical resonance to construct the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio[15]. - **Backtesting Period**: 2010-01-01 to 2025-06-30, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[15]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks, demonstrating significant excess returns over the benchmark index[15]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days, indicating the stock's momentum and trend-following potential[22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Formula**: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[22]. - **Interpretation**: If the latest closing price sets a new high, the 250-Day New High Distance is 0; if the latest closing price falls from the new high, the distance is positive, indicating the extent of the decline[22]. - **Screening Criteria**: Stocks that have set a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days are filtered based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[22][23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, which are significant in the Hong Kong stock market[20]. Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance Factor**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19]

Core Insights - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 19.22%, with 239 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - Southbound funds hold a total of 4,856.80 million shares, accounting for 19.22% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 63,652.24 billion HKD, representing 14.58% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom (601728) at 71.95%, followed by Green Power Environmental and COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) at 69.48% and 69.03% respectively [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Holdings - 239 stocks have a shareholding ratio of over 20%, while 132 stocks are in the 10%-20% range, 95 stocks in the 5%-10% range, 83 stocks in the 1%-5% range, and 17 stocks below 1% [1] - Among the stocks with over 20% shareholding by southbound funds, 128 are AH concept stocks, making up 53.56% of that group [1] Group 2: Industry Concentration - Southbound fund holdings exceeding 20% are primarily concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 56, 35, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - The table lists several stocks with high southbound fund holdings, including China Telecom (71.95%), Green Power Environmental (69.48%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (69.03%), among others [2][3]

Core Insights - The market value of public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.33 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, with passive funds surpassing active funds for the first time since 2017 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market value of public funds' investments in Hong Kong stocks reached 13,255 billion yuan, with passive funds holding 7,000 billion yuan (52.8%) and active funds holding 6,255 billion yuan (47.2%) [4][5]. - The significant increase in passive fund holdings, which rose by 73% compared to Q2 2025, indicates a growing trend of capital flowing into the Hong Kong market through ETF products [5][6]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The top-performing ETFs in Q3 2025 included the Fuqua Hong Kong Internet ETF, Hua Bao Hong Kong Internet ETF, and Huaxia Hang Seng Technology Index ETF, with substantial increases in fund shares [6][7]. - Active funds showed a preference shift towards sectors like healthcare and materials, while reducing exposure to telecommunications and finance [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite market fluctuations, some active fund managers increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on technology core assets due to favorable valuations [9]. - The overall trading volume in the Hong Kong market has significantly increased, with average daily turnover reaching 2,579 billion HKD, nearly doubling from the previous year [11].

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08%, while the North China 50 index fell by 3.79%, indicating significant market differentiation [6] - The market style showed a clear shift towards value and cyclical sectors, driven primarily by traditional energy and materials industries, with substantial profit improvements in the steel sector during Q3 providing solid performance support [6][7] - Future expectations for the A-share market suggest a continuation of structural trends supported by policy and liquidity, with a focus on "developing new productive forces" as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing anti-involution and technology [7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also saw an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.20%, reflecting significant internal differentiation [8] - The performance of the Hong Kong market was influenced by two main factors: increased correlation with the A-share market and strong earnings in energy and financial sectors benefiting from "dual carbon" policy expectations [8] - Looking ahead, the Hong Kong market is expected to navigate between "Chinese fundamentals" and "overseas liquidity," with energy and financial sectors likely to remain stabilizers, while technology stocks may face pressure from overseas market trends [8]

========= - The "Guosen Jin Gong Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - The portfolio's backtest period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - The portfolio's absolute return for the week of November 3-7, 2025, was -0.24%, with an excess return of -1.54% relative to the Hang Seng Index[17] Model Backtest Results - Annualized return: 19.11%[15] - Excess return relative to Hang Seng Index: 18.48%[15] - Absolute return for the week of November 3-7, 2025: -0.24%[17] - Excess return relative to Hang Seng Index for the week of November 3-7, 2025: -1.54%[17] Factor Construction and Evaluation - The "Stable New High Stocks" factor is constructed based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, stock price stability, and the continuity of new highs over the past 20 trading days[3][22] - The factor uses the 250-day new high distance to represent the new high situation, calculated as: $$ \text{250-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[22] - Stocks are selected based on the absolute value of the past 120-day price change and the sum of the absolute values of the past 120-day daily price changes[22] Factor Backtest Results - The "Stable New High Stocks" factor identified stocks like Weichai Power as stable new high stocks[3][22] - The manufacturing sector had the most new high stocks, followed by cyclical, financial, technology, and consumer sectors[3][22] =========

Core Insights - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 19.12%, with 238 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - Southbound funds hold a total of 4,829.92 million shares, accounting for 19.12% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 62,903.32 billion HKD, representing 14.56% of the total market value [1] - The stocks with the highest shareholding ratios by southbound funds are primarily AH concept stocks, with 127 out of 238 stocks exceeding 20% shareholding being AH stocks [1] Summary by Category Southbound Fund Holdings - Southbound funds have a significant presence in the Hong Kong market, with 238 stocks having over 20% shareholding, 135 stocks between 10% and 20%, 96 stocks between 5% and 10%, 82 stocks between 1% and 5%, and 18 stocks below 1% [1] - The highest shareholding is in China Telecom (601728) at 71.42%, followed by Green Power (601330) at 69.43% and COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) at 69.25% [2] Industry Distribution - The stocks with over 20% shareholding by southbound funds are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, industrial, and financial sectors, with 56, 35, and 34 stocks respectively [2] - A detailed list of high shareholding stocks includes China Telecom, Green Power, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others, with varying market prices and daily price changes [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - In October, southbound funds recorded a cumulative net inflow of 92.5 billion HKD, a decrease of approximately 50% compared to September, primarily due to the suspension of Hong Kong Stock Connect trading during the National Day holiday [2][4]. Fund Flow Summary - Overall, southbound funds remained predominantly inflow-oriented in October, but the intensity of inflows weakened as the Hang Seng Index experienced volatility [4]. - The cumulative transaction volume of southbound funds reached 2,310.835 billion HKD, accounting for only 42% of the Hang Seng Index's total transaction volume, marking a low point since the beginning of the year [7]. Industry Analysis - In October, there was increased attention on the financial and energy sectors, with net inflows of 20.811 billion HKD and 9.27 billion HKD, respectively. Conversely, interest in technology and healthcare sectors declined [6]. - The inflow to the information technology sector decreased by over 40% month-on-month, while the healthcare sector saw a net outflow exceeding 5 billion HKD, likely due to the high cumulative gains in the innovative drug sector this year [6]. Stock Performance - Notable net inflows were observed in: - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): 6.728 billion HKD - Meituan-W (03690.HK): 5.409 billion HKD - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK): 4.713 billion HKD - Pop Mart (09992.HK): 4.182 billion HKD [8][9] - Significant net outflows were recorded for: - SMIC (00981.HK): 6.480 billion HKD - Alibaba-W (09988.HK): 5.750 billion HKD - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK): 1.970 billion HKD [9]. Recent Trends - Xiaomi Group-W experienced a cumulative decline of 20% in October, with short-term fund inflows slowing down [10]. - Meituan-W saw a cumulative decline of 2.39%, with a similar trend of slowing short-term fund inflows [11]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation recorded a cumulative increase of 3.83%, with accelerated short-term fund inflows [12]. - Alibaba-W faced a cumulative decline of 6.72%, with continuous outflows of short-term funds [13].