Q&A 今年港股市场的表现如何？未来可能会有怎样的走势？ 今年（2025 年）港股市场表现强劲，恒生指数涨幅已接近 30%。尽管如此， 距离历史前高仍有约 30%的空间。历史数据显示，港股在美联储政策相对宽松 时期（如降息或低利率时期）更容易突破历史前高。目前，美联储可能在 9 月 份进一步降息，今年内降息两次的概率较高。这将降低美国无风险利率，吸引 更多海外资金流入港股市场，从宏观角度来看，这对港股是利好消息。 多数行业估值水平仍低于历史中位数 ——港股牛市观察 20250826 摘要 美联储降息预期利好港股：预计 9 月可能降息，年内降息两次概率较高， 降低美国无风险利率，吸引海外资金流入，为港股提供流动性支持。 港股行业表现分化：医疗保健和非必须消费行业交易活跃度显著上升， 金融业交易量在 7 月达到高峰后回落。多数行业估值低于历史 50%分位 数，股息率维持较高水平。 美联储政策影响：香港作为开放金融中心，受美国货币政策影响显著。 美联储宽松政策有助于外资流入，提升港股市场流动性，历史数据显示 降息周期港股更易突破前高。 美联储未来动向：市场预期美联储 9 月降息概率超过 80%，年底前或有 两次及以 ...

恒生综合指数涵盖在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市公司总市值最高的95%，提供了一项全面的香港 市场指标。恒生综合指数可以用作发行指数基金、互惠基金及表现量度基准。获纳入恒生综合指数将令 公司股份符合资格于香港沪港通及深港通(香港与中国内地投资者进行股份交易的渠道)进行买卖。 董事会认为，公司获纳入恒生综合指数及上述指数反映投资者对集团经营业绩、投资价值及发展潜力的 认可度上升。预期将提高公司在资本市场的知名度，改善公司股份买卖的流动性，从而进一步提高公司 的投资价值。 佰泽医疗(02609)发布公告，根据恒生指数有限公司于2025年8月22日公布的恒生指数系列季度检讨结 果，公司已获选并将纳入包括但不限于下述恒生指数系列成份股，自2025年9月8日起生效：恒生综合指 数;恒生综合行业指数-医疗保健业;恒生综合中小型股指数;恒生综合小型股指数;恒生医疗保健指数;恒生 港股通医疗保健设备和服务(可投资)指数;及恒生港股通医疗保健设备和服务指数。 ...

董事会认为，公司获纳入恒生综合指数及上述指数反映投资者对集团经营业绩、投资价值及发展潜力的 认可度上升。预期将提高公司在资本市场的知名度，改善公司股份买卖的流动性，从而进一步提高公司 的投资价值。 格隆汇8月22日丨佰泽医疗(02609.HK)公告，根据恒生指数有限公司于2025年8月22日公布的恒生指数系 列季度检讨结果，公司已获选并将纳入包括但不限于下述恒生指数系列成份股，自2025年9月8日起生 效：1.恒生综合指数；2.恒生综合行业指数－医疗保健业；3.恒生综合中小型股指数；4.恒生综合小型股 指数；5.恒生医疗保健指数；6.恒生港股通医疗保健设备和服务（可投资）指数；及7.恒生港股通医疗 保健设备和服务指数。 ...

智通财经APP讯，佰泽医疗(02609)发布公告，根据恒生指数有限公司于2025年8月22日公布的恒生指数 系列季度检讨结果，公司已获选并将纳入包括但不限于下述恒生指数系列成份股，自2025年9月8日起生 效：恒生综合指数;恒生综合行业指数-医疗保健业;恒生综合中小型股指数;恒生综合小型股指数;恒生医 疗保健指数;恒生港股通医疗保健设备和服务(可投资)指数;及恒生港股通医疗保健设备和服务指数。 董事会认为，公司获纳入恒生综合指数及上述指数反映投资者对集团经营业绩、投资价值及发展潜力的 认可度上升。预期将提高公司在资本市场的知名度，改善公司股份买卖的流动性，从而进一步提高公司 的投资价值。 恒生综合指数涵盖在香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市公司总市值最高的95%，提供了一项全面的香港 市场指标。恒生综合指数可以用作发行指数基金、互惠基金及表现量度基准。获纳入恒生综合指数将令 公司股份符合资格于香港沪港通及深港通(香港与中国内地投资者进行股份交易的渠道)进行买卖。 ...

此次配售事项预计最高净所得款项为270万港元，公司计划将全部净所得款项用于支持集团医疗保健业 务的发展，具体包括招聘人才、支付山东国恩日常开销、开展市场营销活动以及开发销售平台。 国恩控股与配售代理签订了配售协议。根据协议，公司将通过配售代理以每股0.60港元的配售价(较前 一交易日收盘价0.680港元折让约11.76%)向不少于6名独立第三方承配人配售最多500万股股份。 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Moody's, Mark Zandi, stated that over half of the industries in the U.S. have begun layoffs, indicating a potential economic downturn [1] - Zandi emphasized that the official determination of the start and end of a recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity lasting several months [1] - Employment data is highlighted as the most critical single data point, with stagnation observed since May, and July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with substantial downward revisions to previous months' job additions [1] - Zandi noted that over 53% of industries are currently laying off workers, with only the healthcare sector showing significant job growth [1] - A report from JPMorgan indicated that private sector hiring has averaged 52,000 over the past three months, with hiring stagnating in all sectors except healthcare and education, signaling a warning for economic recession [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on a dual-layer selection process that integrates fundamental and technical analysis. It aims to identify stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[13][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings forecast revisions, initial analyst coverage, and research reports with unexpected positive titles[14] 2. **Dual-Layer Screening**: - **Fundamental Screening**: Select stocks with strong fundamental support - **Technical Screening**: Identify stocks with technical resonance 3. **Portfolio Backtesting**: The backtesting period spans from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025. The portfolio assumes a fully invested position and accounts for transaction costs[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index over the backtesting period[14] 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the momentum effect, which is particularly significant in the Hong Kong stock market. It identifies stocks that have recently reached a 250-day high and exhibit stable price paths[19][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day High Distance Calculation**: $ 250\text{-Day High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}}{\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ - $\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}$: Latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[21] 2. **Screening Criteria**: - **Analyst Attention**: At least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past six months - **Relative Strength**: Top 20% in 250-day price change within the sample pool - **Price Stability**: Top 50% based on a composite score of price path smoothness and new high persistence[22] - **Trend Continuation**: Top 50 stocks based on the average 250-day high distance over the past five days[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong momentum and stable price paths, making it a useful tool for trend-following strategies[19][21] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 19.11% - **Excess Return (Relative to Hang Seng Index)**: 18.48% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22 - **Tracking Error**: 14.55% - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[18] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening - **Sector Distribution**: - **Healthcare**: 16 stocks - **Finance**: 9 stocks - **Technology**: 8 stocks - **Consumer**: 8 stocks - **Cyclicals**: 3 stocks[21][22]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of over 140,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised down the employment figures for May and June, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, indicating growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Job growth in July was primarily driven by the healthcare and social services sectors, which added 55,000 and 18,000 jobs respectively, while federal government employment continued to decline [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in July was $36.44, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, noting that private sector job growth is nearly stagnant and that the labor market is showing signs of vulnerability [2]

Stock Market Performance - In July 2025, global stock markets rose, with the KOSPI increasing by over 5%, and the NASDAQ rising nearly 4%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both saw monthly gains of nearly 3%[4] Hong Kong Stock Sector Performance - The healthcare sector surged by 22.8%, while the industrial and energy sectors also performed well with increases of 9.9% and 9.7% respectively[8] - The overall performance of the Hang Seng industry indices showed positive growth across all sectors in July 2025[8] IPO and Financing Overview - In July 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 9 new listings, raising approximately HKD 17.63 billion, with a first-day loss rate of only 22.2%[13] - The major sectors for IPO financing included TMT, finance, consumer, and healthcare[13] - A total of 86 companies announced share placements in July, expected to raise around HKD 40.89 billion, primarily in the healthcare, TMT, and real estate sectors[13] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, marking a six-week decline[15] - Despite weak home sales, the median home price increased by 1.97% year-on-year, indicating price stability in the real estate market[15] China Economic Policies - China continues to implement policies to combat "involution," with new regulations in various sectors including agriculture and healthcare[16] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion[16] - The AI industry is receiving new catalysts, with the government advocating for global cooperation in AI governance[16] Market Outlook - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[18] - The Hong Kong market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by favorable domestic policies and improved U.S.-China relations[18] - Investment focus is recommended on technology assets, consumer sectors, and stable dividend-paying stocks[18]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in share buybacks in 2023, indicating that companies are taking advantage of historically low valuations and improving their capital structures [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Trends - From January 1 to July 31, 2023, 212 Hong Kong-listed companies repurchased a total of 4.611 billion shares, amounting to HKD 104.7 billion [1]. - The healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors have the highest number of companies participating in buybacks, reflecting a broadening of market confidence [1]. - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with a total repurchase amount of HKD 40.043 billion, accounting for 38.25% of the total buyback value in the market [2]. Group 2: Tencent Holdings Buyback Details - Tencent has consistently increased its buyback amounts over the years, with HKD 25.99 billion in 2021, HKD 337.94 billion in 2022, and HKD 494.33 billion in 2023 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2023, Tencent repurchased 8.884 million shares, with an average daily buyback amount exceeding HKD 600 million [2][3]. - The monthly buyback amounts exceeded HKD 10 billion in five months, with the highest in June at HKD 20.834 billion [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's upcoming reform in June 2024 will allow companies to hold repurchased shares as treasury stock, which is expected to enhance buyback activity and efficiency [3]. - The total buyback amount for the second half of 2023 is projected to remain around HKD 100 billion, similar to the first half [3].