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8月宏观月报:海外资金行为“新变化”-20250817
Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - In July, the US economy showed resilience with a GDP growth rate of 3.0%, up by 3.5 percentage points from the previous quarter[2] - The unemployment rate in July rose slightly to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Inflation pressures increased in July, driven by rising retail prices due to elevated tariffs and previous import consumption[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Foreign Investment - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, boosting market sentiment[2] - Foreign investment in US assets increased significantly, with inflows of $11.36 billion into US stocks and $11.34 billion into US bonds in July[2] - The US dollar index rose from 96.6 at the beginning of July to 100.0 by the end of the month, supported by foreign capital inflows[2] Group 3: Domestic Policy and Economic Impact - The "anti-involution" policies implemented in July positively impacted upstream prices, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins[3] - Despite positive supply-side effects, demand remained weak, with external demand performing better than domestic demand in July[3] - The focus on "anti-involution" policies is expected to continue, with attention on their effects on mid-to-low-end enterprises and marginal changes in domestic demand[4]