Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced fluctuations in December, initially declining before rebounding due to potential production cuts in Indonesia, which significantly impacts global nickel supply [2][15]. Nickel Mining Policy Disturbances - Indonesia accounts for 60-70% of global nickel production, and recent government plans indicate a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons set for 2025 [3][16]. - The Indonesian government is also set to revise the nickel pricing reference formula, which may increase mining costs by treating associated minerals like cobalt as separate commodities subject to royalties [3][16]. Nickel Ore Import and Pricing - Domestic nickel ore prices remained stable in December, with imports totaling 3.3395 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, primarily sourced from the Philippines [4][17]. - As of December 19, nickel ore inventories at 14 ports in China stood at 14.3914 million wet tons, showing a slight decrease from previous highs [4][17]. Nickel Iron Production Trends - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia reached 179,300 tons in November, reflecting a minor month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. - Despite a slight rise in high-nickel pig iron prices, production remains under pressure due to high inventory levels and losses faced by some domestic and Indonesian producers [6][19]. Refined Nickel Production and Inventory - Refined nickel production in China saw a significant decline of 14.8% in November, with total production for the year-to-date reaching 381,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [8][21]. - Nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, reaching 45,280 tons by December 19, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market [8][21]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel, primarily driven by stainless steel and battery production, showed signs of weakness, with stainless steel production in November declining to 1.7617 million tons, a decrease from October [10][23]. - The market for battery-grade nickel sulfate has also softened, with prices dropping to 27,430 yuan per ton, reflecting reduced downstream demand [10][23]. Summary - Overall, nickel prices are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, influenced by Indonesia's announcements regarding production cuts and pricing revisions. However, the market remains characterized by high inventories and weak demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which may limit significant price increases in the near term [11][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the strong performance of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure of refined nickel lead to a divergence in the trends of nickel and ferronickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to grow, nickel prices may further decline to find the valuation bottom. But in the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline. Considering the global macro - easing expectations and news disturbances in Indonesia, long - position allocation has a higher cost - performance [1][14][18] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Ore - The overall supply and demand of nickel ore in Indonesia remain loose, with only a slight decline in the price of hydrometallurgical ore and firm prices of pyrometallurgical ore. Due to concerns about RKAB approval quotas, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices. In the Philippines, improved weather and rising downstream ferronickel prices may lead to higher mine quotes [4] Ferronickel - Recently, ferronickel prices have been running steadily and strongly, with the bargaining range moving up to 955 - 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Supply growth is limited as iron - plant profits are still low. On the demand side, the expected increase in stainless - steel production in September supports ferronickel demand, but the volatility of the stainless - steel market makes steel mills cautious in raw - material procurement. In the short - term, ferronickel prices are expected to continue to run steadily and strongly [6] Refined Nickel - In the short - term, there is an obvious oversupply of refined nickel. In September, the global visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation trend, increasing by 17,000 tons to 263,000 tons since the beginning of the month, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline because of Indonesia's RKAB approval system and the rising costs of smelting processes [14]