成本抬升支撑镍价偏强 震荡 镍周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：本周高镍生铁价格维持强势，周五SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面，上游 厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重心上移。整体来看，上 下游博弈仍在延续，但在刚需成交的支撑下，高镍生铁价格继续走强。 ◆ 中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. Although there are still macro - support and the expectation of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, the short - term nickel supply has not shown a significant decrease, and the nickel price still faces obvious real - world pressure. In the context of long - term bullish and short - term bearish, it is expected that the nickel price will oscillate widely and the center of gravity will gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel price in February is expected to be between 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3M contract is expected to be between 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In January, the nickel ore price increased significantly under the influence of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of the LME nickel price. In the Philippines, rainfall in Surigao suspended mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting the domestic ore price. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable, and the price remained unchanged; the price of pyrometallurgical ore increased to $61.4 per wet ton due to heavy rainfall, MOMS/RKAB verification, regulatory pressure, and miners' reluctance to sell. The benchmark price and premium are expected to remain strong in the future [12]. - **Ferronickel**: In January, the price of high - nickel pig iron in China remained strong. At the end of the month, the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose to 1,054 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax included). The price was mainly driven by the widening of the futures - spot price difference and the upstream's price support. Some iron plants in Indonesia switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, and traders locked in goods for arbitrage, resulting in a tight supply of market - circulating goods. Although the downstream was in the off - season, the increase in futures prices improved the profits of stainless - steel enterprises, supporting the ferronickel price. In the short term, the high - nickel pig iron price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Intermediate products**: In January, the overall situation of nickel intermediate products remained "tight + high coefficient". On the MHP side, due to the limited spot circulation volume, the slow approval process (new projects are difficult to increase production in the short term), and policy disturbances, the nickel coefficient remained at a high level. At high prices, downstream acceptance was low, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - to - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. High - grade nickel matte also had a tight supply - demand situation and a firm coefficient, but transactions were suppressed by high prices. The CIF price of auxiliary sulfur remained unchanged, and due to overseas maintenance and shipping delays, the supply was tight, and the price was likely to rise [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. As of February 5, the main contract of Shanghai nickel was reported at 134,430 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase from the same period last month; the LME nickel price was reported at $17,060 per ton, a 0.3% increase from the same period last month. In terms of spot, the spot was tight in the first half of January, and the premium remained at a high level, but the spot gradually became loose in the second half of the month, and the premium dropped significantly. The market transactions were relatively cold throughout the month, and end - users were highly averse to high prices. In terms of macro, Trump nominated Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was slightly postponed, causing a significant decline in precious - metal prices. In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 68,000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 286,000 tons [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In January, the nickel price changed from an upward trend to a high - level wide - range oscillation. At the end of the month, affected by the decline in precious - metal prices, the price dropped significantly. In terms of the premium, the premium of imported nickel remained stable in the first half of the month, but continued to decline in the second half of the month, indicating that the spot was gradually becoming loose. In January, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel returned to a normal level. The price of nickel sulfate mainly fluctuated with the nickel price [17][19][22]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The domestic nickel ore inventory level continued to decline in January. The nickel ore price remained strong. As the nickel price increased, the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore rose in January. Currently, the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen to $60.9 per ton, a $9 increase from the beginning of the month. The price of wet - process ore was relatively stable, fluctuating around $22 per ton [26][28][31]. - **Ferronickel production**: In December, the ferronickel production was stable. Due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production in January will decline month - on - month. In January, as the ferronickel price rose, the production profits of ferronickel in Indonesia and China increased significantly [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: In December, the production of intermediate products was stable. In January, due to the significant increase in the MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel, it is expected that the production of MHP and nickel matte will increase significantly month - on - month. In January, the coefficient price of intermediate products remained at a high level [39][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: In January 2026, the national refined - nickel production was 65,000 tons, a 4,417 - ton increase compared to December 2025 [48]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic stainless - steel production was 2.8284 million tons, a 219,800 - ton decrease compared to November. The inventory level decreased to a relatively low level [51]. - **Import and export**: In January, the global refined - nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly reflected in the domestic social inventory. As of January 30, the global refined - nickel visible inventory was 354,000 tons, a 43,000 - ton increase compared to the end of December. After the nickel price rose, the production profits of smelting enterprises increased significantly [57][59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: In December, the domestic nickel - sulfate production was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [64]. - **Demand**: In December, the loading volume of ternary power batteries was 36.4 GWh, basically unchanged month - on - month; the production of precursors decreased slightly. The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and supply - demand gaps of various nickel products such as NPI, refined nickel, and nickel salts in China and other regions. The global primary nickel supply and demand have a certain gap, and the supply - demand gap of refined nickel also shows different trends in different quarters [71].

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel futures market is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, with LME nickel closing down 0.37% at $17,330 per ton, a decrease of $65 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai exchange also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 135,600 yuan per ton, down 340 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.25% [1] Group 2: Recent Developments - The nickel market experienced a sudden and significant price drop, attributed to mixed economic data from the US, including a much lower-than-expected ADP employment figure of only 22,000 jobs, while the services PMI unexpectedly rose [2] - Geopolitical concerns arose from a key mineral cooperation agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the US, granting the US exclusive development rights to certain undeveloped nickel-cobalt mining areas, raising fears about future resource allocation [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is facing dual pressures of "supply easing and demand weakening," with high global visible inventories contributing to ongoing selling pressure [3] - Seasonal demand weakness is evident as both the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors enter a period of reduced activity ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to a lack of intrinsic support for nickel prices [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Price volatility is leading to differentiation within the industry, with integrated leading enterprises that have access to Indonesian resources demonstrating stronger risk resilience due to cost advantages [4] - The short-term outlook suggests that nickel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations, while the medium to long-term trend will depend on the actual implementation of Indonesian policies and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback in the real - end has limited impact, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to follow market risk preferences, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices rose significantly this week due to the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of LME nickel prices. In the Philippines, rainfall led to a near - halt in mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting domestic ore prices. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable with prices unchanged, while the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore at the factory increased to $54 - 56 per wet ton [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China continued to rise sharply this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 25 yuan per nickel point to 1,042.5 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax - included). The price is expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: Nickel intermediate products maintained a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient" this week. The high price suppressed downstream acceptance, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. The supply of high - grade nickel matte was also tight with a firm coefficient, but transactions were restricted by high prices [11]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices first weakened and then strengthened this week. The Shanghai Nickel main contract 2602 closed at 148,010 yuan per ton on Friday, up 2.52% for the week. The LME 3M contract was reported at $18,850 per ton, up 4.07% for the week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including the LME 3 - month nickel and the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [15]. - **Spot premium and discount**: It shows the average premium and discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai Nickel contract, as well as the LME nickel spot premium and discount [18][21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the price of nickel iron, the price of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [23]. 3.3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: It shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines [28][30][32]. - **Nickel iron**: Data on the monthly production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China, as well as the production profit situation, are presented [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: Information on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and coefficient of intermediate products is provided [38][40][42]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons compared to October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel [46][48]. - **Demand**: It presents data on domestic stainless - steel production, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries [49][51]. - **Import and export**: The report shows the domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss [53]. - **Inventory**: It includes domestic refined nickel inventory and the LME's regional inventory [55]. - **Cost**: Data on the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are provided [58]. 3.5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [62]. - **Demand**: It presents data on the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [65]. - **Cost and price**: Information on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials is provided [67]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed table of the global and Chinese nickel supply - demand balance from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and inventory changes [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - **Nickel spot premiums and discounts**: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Nickel - iron**: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - **Demand**: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - **Cost**: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - **Demand**: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - **Cost and price**: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, plans to reduce production to boost prices, leading to a rise in nickel prices to the highest level since March this year [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - Indonesia's nickel production is set to decrease by 2026 to better align supply with demand [1] - Currently, Indonesia accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, which has significantly increased this decade [1] - The Indonesian government can regulate supply by tightening the issuance of mining quotas, known locally as RKAB [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the increase in production, the demand for nickel in the battery industry remains weak due to the rise of alternative chemical systems [1] - Nickel prices have been under pressure for most of the year, leading to a rapid increase in warehouse inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom space of nickel price is expected to shift from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy in 2026, with the front - end smelting entering a second peak of low - cost replacement of high - cost. The combined low - cost and surplus volume is over 360,000 tons, while the nickel - iron to nickel - matte production in 2025 was about 270,000 tons [3][68]. - The price difference between nickel - iron and nickel sulfate/refined nickel is expected to converge in the long - term, with the industry chain forming a parallel pattern of hydrometallurgy - nickel sulfate/refined nickel and nickel - iron - stainless steel. If the Indonesian nickel ore quota is implemented, nickel - iron will rise more than pure nickel; otherwise, pure nickel will decline [4][69]. - The path of price difference regression may be bumpy. In 2026, domestic enterprises may consider selling MHP and squeezing MHP profits [4][69]. - The upper limit of nickel price depends on the uncertainty of Indonesian policies. The long - term nickel price is still promising, especially in 2027 due to the demand from solid - state batteries and other emerging sectors [4][69]. - From a static balance perspective, a surplus of about 220,000 - 230,000 tons is expected in 2026, mainly due to the over - supply in the smelting end [5][70]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply: Shift to Hydrometallurgy in the Production Cycle - In 2025, intermediate products and nickel sulfate were in short supply, while refined nickel had significant inventory accumulation. The industry mode and resource integration led to more flexible conversion between standard and non - standard products [10][12]. - In 2026, Indonesia's hydrometallurgical MHP will be the largest source of supply. The planned production capacity from 2026 - 2027 is close to 550,000 tons, with an expected increase of 350,000 tons in production capacity by the end of 2026. The actual increase in supply is mainly from three projects, with an expected year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons to 620,000 tons in 2026 [13]. - The total capacity of the key oxygen - rich side - blowing incremental projects from 2026 - 2027 is about 80,000 tons. The output of Indonesian oxygen - rich side - blown nickel matte is expected to increase by 30,000 tons to 70,000 tons in 2026 [15]. - The trend of RKEF converting to nickel matte is decreasing. The traditional pyrometallurgy is facing challenges, with the bottom space of nickel price shifting from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy [21]. - The global nickel - iron supply is expected to increase by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons in 2026. However, due to the squeeze of hydrometallurgy on pyrometallurgy, the supply elasticity of nickel - iron will increase [25]. Risk: Uncertainty of Indonesian Policies - Indonesia has the ability and motivation to support prices. It can resolve the surplus contradiction by cutting 9% of nickel supply. Currently, it is taking a moderate approach to support prices, with the full cost of pyrometallurgical nickel - iron rising by 5% year - on - year [30]. - The cost of MHP has increased, but the high cobalt price offsets part of it. In the long - term, Indonesia may cut the quota to control the surplus, but an immediate "one - size - fits - all" policy is still challenging [34]. Demand: Contradiction May Not Be Prominent, Focus on Ternary in the Long - Term - In 2026, the growth rate of global electric vehicle demand will be moderate, with the increase in market penetration as the core logic. The total global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by 13% to 23.75 million units [37]. - The growth of the Chinese electric vehicle market may slow down, but the structural market has bright spots, with an expected increase of about 1.5 million units in domestic demand [39]. - The overseas market growth mainly comes from Europe and emerging regions, while the US market may have a negative impact [42]. - The growth rate of global ternary battery installation is not expected to be high in 2026. The proportion of ternary battery installation may decline by 6% to 36%. The long - term demand depends on emerging sectors such as solid - state batteries [43]. - The alloy demand growth is expected to be limited, with marginal attention on high - temperature and corrosion - resistant alloys. The demand for stainless steel is less elastic and may not have outstanding performance [50][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown significant marginal improvement, and it is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose. LME inventories are at a high level, which exerts some pressure on prices. The Indonesian government's plan to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and significantly reduce the nickel ore quota for 2026 has led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price sharply. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel contract rose significantly, with an intraday increase of over 3.4% and breaking through 11,740 tons. The main reasons for the sharp rebound in nickel prices are that Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026. One of the revision points is that the government will treat nickel's associated metals as independent commodities and levy royalties, which will push up the cost of the nickel industry chain and support the price rebound. In addition, Indonesia plans to set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of about 34% compared to this year's 379 million tons. If this plan is implemented, it will have a greater impact on the 2026 nickel balance, and the surplus expectation will decline significantly. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic refined nickel production in November decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 25,800 tons, showing a significant marginal contraction, but it is not enough to effectively improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel and nickel matte in Indonesia all maintained year - on - year growth, and the overall supply - side pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. After the spot market completed phased restocking, the trading volume weakened. The stainless steel production schedule has gradually weakened month - on - month, and the consumption of nickel in electric vehicles and alloys is expected to decline. The overall fundamental surplus remains. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253,900 tons yesterday, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 748 tons to 37,500 tons, but the overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals have not shown significant marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose, and the high - level LME inventory suppresses prices. The Indonesian policy adjustments have led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies. [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 56, and the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 50, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 28400 to 28200, a decrease of 0.70%. The price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained at 29700, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained at 3400, with a 0.00% change. The price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 935 to 925, a decrease of 1.07% [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 123350 to 122360, a decrease of 0.80%. The price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 121450 to 120100, a decrease of 1.11%. The price of Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 123100 to 123300, an increase of 0.16% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 13712.5 to 13550, a decrease of 1.19% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the ocean freight was the same as last week. - As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 188,100 wet tons or 1.26% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 14.3054 million wet tons, a decrease of 199,200 wet tons or 1.37%. The nickel ore from other countries was 485,600 wet tons, an increase of 11,100 wet tons or 2.44%. - In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 232,200 tons or 3.66% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.5483 million tons or 33.91% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - The nickel price fluctuated weakly, and the transaction improved. There was new production capacity put into operation at home and abroad, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of planned production cut. The long - term surplus contradiction was more prominent. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel output was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel output was 353,335 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.70%. - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4181 tons or 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons or 407.65%. The net import of refined nickel this month was 14,255.276 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 207.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. - The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained the same as last week [22][25][33]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - The price of nickel iron declined. The price of low - nickel iron remained flat, and the price of high - nickel iron decreased. - In September 2025, China's actual nickel pig iron production in terms of metal was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64%. - In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons or 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons or 47.2%. - In September, the nickel iron inventory was 202,900 physical tons available for circulation, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [43][47][50]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 162.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. - In September, the stainless steel crude steel output was 3.4267 million tons, of which the output of 200 - series was 1.039 million tons, the output of 400 - series was 525,000 tons, and the output of 300 - series was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. - The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. - As of November 7, the inventory in Wuxi was 599,000 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2900 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons [58][63][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The installed capacity of power batteries in China was 76.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 13.8 GWh, accounting for 18.2% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 26.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 62.2 GWh, accounting for 81.8% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 20.5% and a year - on - year increase of 50.4% [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price began to be under downward pressure, breaking below the 120,000 level. The position increased, indicating that the main short - sellers were exerting force and were relatively bearish on the future. The MACD indicator also showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area and might have a rebound demand. Overall, it will fluctuate weakly [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The quotation remained stable, the ocean freight was the same, and the rainy season was approaching [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron decreased steadily, and the cost line decreased to a certain extent [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series decreased slightly [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. The production data was good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [83].