Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced fluctuations in December, initially declining before rebounding due to potential production cuts in Indonesia, which significantly impacts global nickel supply [2][15]. Nickel Mining Policy Disturbances - Indonesia accounts for 60-70% of global nickel production, and recent government plans indicate a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons set for 2025 [3][16]. - The Indonesian government is also set to revise the nickel pricing reference formula, which may increase mining costs by treating associated minerals like cobalt as separate commodities subject to royalties [3][16]. Nickel Ore Import and Pricing - Domestic nickel ore prices remained stable in December, with imports totaling 3.3395 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, primarily sourced from the Philippines [4][17]. - As of December 19, nickel ore inventories at 14 ports in China stood at 14.3914 million wet tons, showing a slight decrease from previous highs [4][17]. Nickel Iron Production Trends - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia reached 179,300 tons in November, reflecting a minor month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. - Despite a slight rise in high-nickel pig iron prices, production remains under pressure due to high inventory levels and losses faced by some domestic and Indonesian producers [6][19]. Refined Nickel Production and Inventory - Refined nickel production in China saw a significant decline of 14.8% in November, with total production for the year-to-date reaching 381,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [8][21]. - Nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, reaching 45,280 tons by December 19, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market [8][21]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel, primarily driven by stainless steel and battery production, showed signs of weakness, with stainless steel production in November declining to 1.7617 million tons, a decrease from October [10][23]. - The market for battery-grade nickel sulfate has also softened, with prices dropping to 27,430 yuan per ton, reflecting reduced downstream demand [10][23]. Summary - Overall, nickel prices are expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, influenced by Indonesia's announcements regarding production cuts and pricing revisions. However, the market remains characterized by high inventories and weak demand, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which may limit significant price increases in the near term [11][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]