饼 究 用 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20251027-20251102) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年11月3日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 20251103一周,模型推荐配置通信设备、房地产开发、游戏等板块。未来一周,策略 . 将新增持有通信ETF、房地产ETF、游戏ETF等产品:继续持有科创医药ETF。截至上周 末,部分ETF及标的指数的交易择时信号给出日度或周度风险提示。 数据来源:wind数据库,金融街证券研究所 * 择时信号为量价指标,等于1为看多信号;等于0为中性信号;等于-1为看空信号 2025102 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with major indices reaching new highs not seen since August 2015, indicating a potential bullish market sentiment and increased investor interest in A-shares [1]. Market Performance - As of 13:31, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.78% to 3800.53 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.45% to 12092.66 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.64% to 2663.89 points [1]. - The STAR 50 Index saw a significant increase of approximately 7% [1]. Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan secondary industry sectors, the semiconductor, glass fiber, communication equipment, components, and computer equipment sectors showed the highest gains [1]. - Conversely, the fisheries, airport, food processing, city commercial banks, and real estate services sectors experienced the largest declines [1]. Market Outlook - According to Dongxing Securities, the market is expected to target the 4000-point mark in the short term, reinforcing a narrative of a slow bull market and potentially activating off-market funds' interest in A-shares [1]. - In a longer-term perspective, there is confidence that the Chinese stock market will reach new heights [1].

Market Overview - On June 23, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3348 points and closing at 3381.58 points, up 0.65%[4][9]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,048.39 points, up 0.43%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39%[10][9]. - Total trading volume for both markets reached 11,471 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[4][17]. Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, software development, semiconductors, and energy metals, while sectors like liquor, aviation, engineering machinery, and electricity showed weaker performance[4][9]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in energy metals, shipping ports, and software development[9]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 13.85 times and 36.04 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[4][17]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in software development, semiconductors, banking, and chemical pharmaceuticals in the short term[4][17]. Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment, with long-term capital inflows increasing and ETF sizes growing steadily[4][17]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite[4][17]. Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade and energy supplies[5][4].