行业轮动 TF策略周报 (20260223-20260301) | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159707 | 地产ETF | 6. 65 | 继续持有 | 房地产开发(100%) | -1 | -1 | | 159745 | 建材ETF | 26. 61 | 调入 | 水泥(45.24%) | 1 | 1 | | 159796 | 电池ETF汇添富 | 84. 32 | 调入 | 电池(64.18%) | -1 | =1 | | 512800 | 银行ETF | 114.46 | 调入 | 股份制银行 (42.01%) | -1 | -1 | | 159869 | 游戏ETF | 122. 27 | 调入 | 游戏 (83.85%) | 1 | -1 | | 159766 | 旅游ETF | 78.92 | 继续持有 | 航空机场(33.21%) | 0 | 0 | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2]. Strategy Update - The strategy portfolio includes various ETFs with specific holdings and weightings, such as: - Wine ETF with a market value of 184.16 billion, holding a significant position in the liquor industry (84.84%) [3]. - Real Estate ETF valued at 6.61 billion, fully invested in real estate development (100%) [3]. - Tourism ETF at 88.57 billion, primarily focused on the aviation and airport sector (33.21%) [3]. - New additions include Agriculture and Fishery ETF and Grain ETF, with respective holdings in aquaculture (46.89%) and planting (49.63%) [3]. - The strategy's performance for the period from February 9 to February 13, 2026, showed a cumulative net return of approximately -0.38%, underperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about -0.85% [3]. Performance Tracking - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 37.93%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 14.43% [3][4]. - The report includes a performance chart illustrating the cumulative return of the industry rotation ETF strategy since its inception [4]. Weekly Holdings and Performance - The report details the weekly performance of various ETFs, indicating that the strategy will continue to hold Wine, Real Estate, Tourism, and Traditional Chinese Medicine ETFs while adding Agriculture and Grain ETFs [11]. - The average return of the ETF portfolio for the week was -0.38%, with a notable underperformance compared to the CSI 300 ETF [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on industry rotation TF from February 2, 2026, to February 8, 2026, released on February 9, 2026 [1][2] - The strategy is based on two previous reports and constructs an ETF - based strategy portfolio [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations Current Holdings and Changes - ETFs to be continued to hold include Building Materials ETF (159745, market value 21.67 billion yuan), Real Estate ETF (159707, market value 6.40 billion yuan), Petrochemical ETF (159731, market value 17.46 billion yuan), Chemical ETF (159870, market value 340.36 billion yuan), and Rare Metals ETF (562800, market value 62.40 billion yuan) [3] - ETFs to be newly added or adjusted to hold include Tourism ETF (159766, market value 91.07 billion yuan), Wine ETF (512690, market value 192.66 billion yuan), Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF (560080, market value 26.52 billion yuan), New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700, market value 19.75 billion yuan), and Agricultural ETF Harvest (516550, market value 2.03 billion yuan) [3] - ETFs to be removed from the portfolio include Non - Ferrous Metals ETF (512400, market value 352.52 billion yuan), Gold Stocks ETF (517520, market value 151.34 billion yuan), Grain ETF (159698, market value 4.66 billion yuan), Securities and Insurance ETF E Fund (512070, market value 201.73 billion yuan), and Agricultural ETF (159825, market value 26.26 billion yuan) [11] Sector Recommendations - The model recommends allocating to sectors such as cement, real estate development, and airport aviation in the week of February 9, 2026 [12] - In the next week, the strategy will newly hold Game ETF, Wine ETF, Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF, and New Energy Vehicle ETF, and continue to hold Building Materials ETF, Real Estate ETF, and Petrochemical ETF [12] Group 3: Performance Tracking - From February 2 to February 6, 2026, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 3.85%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 2.53% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to February 6, 2026, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was approximately 38.45%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately 15.41% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, referring to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] - From 20260126 - 20260130, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 0.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 0.39%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was approximately 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately 19.78% [3] - In the week of February 2, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as refining and trading, cement, and industrial metals. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products such as Building Materials ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, and Real Estate ETF, and continue to hold products such as Petrochemical ETF, Chemical ETF, and Gold Stocks ETF [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Information - The strategy portfolio includes ETFs such as Petrochemical ETF (159731), Building Materials ETF (159745), Non - Ferrous Metals ETF (512400), etc. Each ETF has information such as market value, holding status, heavy - held Shenwan industries and their weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals. For example, the Petrochemical ETF has a market value of 16.60 billion yuan, and the heavy - held industry is refining and trading with a weight of 27.28%, and both the weekly and daily timing signals are 1 [3] 3.2 Performance Tracking - During 20260126 - 20260130, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about - 0.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.39%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 19.78% [3] 3.3 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of February 2, 2026, the strategy will add holdings of Building Materials ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, Real Estate ETF, etc., and continue to hold Petrochemical ETF, Chemical ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, etc. Some previously held ETFs such as Mining ETF, Communication ETF, etc. will be removed from the portfolio [3][11][12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, referring to two strategy reports published in 2024 [2]. - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 2.01%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.68%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 19.78% [3]. - For the week of January 26, 2026, the model recommended allocating to sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and communication equipment. The strategy will newly hold products like Gold Stocks ETF, Mining ETF, Communication ETF, Game ETF, and Industrial Mother Machine ETF, and continue to hold products like Power Grid Equipment ETF [3][12]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Construction - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, referring to "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2]. Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of January 26 - January 30, 2026, Gold Stocks ETF (market value: 178.55 billion yuan), Mining ETF (market value: 26.44 billion yuan), Communication ETF (market value: 142.74 billion yuan), Game ETF (market value: 145.64 billion yuan), Industrial Mother Machine ETF (market value: 13.70 billion yuan), Chemical ETF (market value: 298.64 billion yuan), VR ETF (market value: 1.82 billion yuan), Consumer Electronics ETF (market value: 30.12 billion yuan), and Petrochemical ETF (market value: 9.10 billion yuan) were to be newly added to the portfolio. Power Grid Equipment ETF (market value: 167.78 billion yuan) was to be held continuously [3]. - In the week of January 19 - January 23, 2026, Defense ETF, Securities and Insurance ETF E Fund, Tourism ETF, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery ETF, Communication Equipment ETF, Energy Storage Battery ETF E Fund, Financial ETF, and Oil and Gas ETF Huatai - PineBridge were removed from the portfolio. Power Grid Equipment ETF was held continuously, and Grain ETF was newly added [12]. Performance Tracking - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 2.01%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.68%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 19.78% [3]. Risk Signal - As of the end of last week, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy based on industry and theme ETFs was constructed by the Financial Street Securities Research Institute, and the portfolio was updated weekly. From January 5 - 9, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 8.72%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 5.94%. From October 14, 2024, to January 9, 2026, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 41.66%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 15.74% [3] - In the week of January 12, 2026, the model recommended allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports. The strategy would add holdings of products like Aerospace ETF, Grain ETF, and Power Grid Equipment ETF, and continue to hold products like Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, and Communication Equipment ETF [13] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Strategy Construction - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs, referring to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] Strategy Update - The strategy updated the holdings of ETFs. Newly added holdings included Aerospace ETF, Grain ETF, and Power Grid Equipment ETF. Continued holdings included Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, etc. [3][13] Performance Tracking - From January 5 - 9, 2026, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 8.72%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 5.94%. From October 14, 2024, to January 9, 2026, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 41.66%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 15.74% [3] Future Recommendations - In the week of January 12 - 16, 2026, the model recommended allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports, and recommended products for investment [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20260105, the model recommends allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports. The strategy will newly hold products like Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, Rare Metals ETF, and continue to hold products like Gold Stocks ETF [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Update - Multiple ETFs are adjusted in the portfolio, including Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, etc. [3] Performance Tracking - From 20251229 - 20251231, the strategy's cumulative net return is about -1.44%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about -0.80%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return is about 30.30%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about 7.80% [3] ETFs' Information - Information on ETFs' market value, holding status, heavy - held Shenwan industries and weights, and timing signals are provided [3] ETFs' Adjustment in the Recent Week - Some ETFs are调出, and the future - week strategy recommends new holdings and continued holdings [3][12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2]. - The strategy has shown a cumulative net return of approximately 1.44% during the period from December 8 to December 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 1.53% [3]. - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 26.05%, with an excess return of about 5.03% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3]. ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their respective market values and sector weights, indicating a shift in holdings towards sectors such as batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and automation equipment [3]. - The weekly performance of the ETF portfolio shows an average return of 1.44%, while the CSI 300 ETF had a return of 1.53%, indicating a slight underperformance of the strategy in that week [12]. - The report recommends increasing positions in ETFs related to batteries, photovoltaic equipment, automation equipment, chemical products, and airport sectors for the upcoming week [12].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2][3]. Strategy Update - The strategy has seen a cumulative net return of approximately 4.59% during the period from November 24 to November 28, 2025, with an excess return of about 3.03% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][12]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy sample has reached approximately 23.58%, with an excess return of about 4.05% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [3][4]. ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their respective market values and holdings, indicating adjustments in positions such as the addition of real estate, grain, petrochemical, chemical, and tourism ETFs, while continuing to hold the electric grid equipment ETF [3][12]. - The weekly performance of the ETF portfolio shows an average return of 4.59%, with specific ETFs like the electric grid equipment ETF maintaining a strong position [3][12]. Recommended Sectors and Products - For the upcoming week, the strategy recommends increasing holdings in sectors such as real estate development, agriculture, refining and trading, and tourism, while continuing to hold the electric grid equipment ETF [12].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry rotation and ETF market overview [2][3]. Strategy Update - The strategy portfolio includes various ETFs, with notable holdings in Aerospace Equipment (59.16%), Automation Equipment (47.2%), and Communication Equipment (75.3%) [3]. - The weekly timing signals indicate a bearish outlook for several ETFs, with signals of -1 for Aerospace, Industrial Mother Machine, and Communication ETFs [3]. - The strategy's cumulative net return from October 14, 2024, to November 14, 2025, is approximately 18.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by 0.57% [3][4]. Performance Tracking - During the period from November 10 to November 14, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of about -3.78%, with an excess return of -0.04% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3][12]. - The average return of the ETF portfolio was -3.73%, with specific ETFs like the Communication ETF and Gaming ETF continuing to hold positions despite recent declines [12][13]. Recommended Holdings - For the upcoming week, the strategy recommends increasing positions in Securities ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, and Grid Equipment ETF, while maintaining existing positions in Aerospace and Industrial Mother Machine ETFs [13].