近日，地缘宏观专家Marko Papic做客主持人Eric Townsend的一档播客节目。 Marko，我们直接进入正题吧，因为这周有很多话题可以讨论。我想委内瑞拉可能是大家首先关注的事 情。通常，如果你要开始一场空战，首先要做的就是通过非常明确的军事和政治协议宣布一个禁飞区。 所以我不认为他（特朗普）会在委内瑞拉重复他显然厌恶的做法。但如果他从马杜罗 那里得不到他想要的东西，他会不会将委内瑞拉变成一片停车场呢？我认为，这个可 能性是50-50。是有可能发生的。 我并不认为油价会出现看空的结果，至少在接下来的18个月内不会。 沙特阿拉伯不可能永远替美国效劳。总有一天，他们需要布伦特原油价格高于60美 元。不是100美元那样高，但至少是70、75美元。 如果特朗普总统想专注于可负担性和通胀问题，他需要为油价在80美元左右的世界做 好准备，并通过供给侧改革降低美国经济其他部分的成本。这是唯一的办法，因为不 能仅仅依靠能源来控制通胀，必须还有其他措施。 柴油的制裁是个大问题，俄罗斯的柴油可能会重新进入市场，这应该会带动其他产品 价格的下跌。所以，我确实认为，如果协议明天就达成，油价可能会下降5%。 如果这些机构投 ...

Core Insights - The China-France Future Industry Cooperation Forum was held in Nanjing, focusing on innovation and collaboration in future industries [1] - Major French industrial companies, including Schneider Electric and Dassault Systèmes, participated, highlighting the importance of digital transformation and 3D virtual twin technology [1][2] - Nanjing aims to accelerate the development of future industries, with a projected 20% growth in future industry business revenue by 2025 [2] Group 1: Industry Collaboration - The forum emphasized the collaboration between local high-tech companies in Nanjing and leading French firms, showcasing the potential for partnerships in aerospace, green energy, and future energy sectors [2] - Nanjing Tianyi Aerospace Electronics Technology Co., a high-tech company focused on commercial satellite technology, is set to test its satellite communication services by the end of the year [3] - The forum resulted in a three-year agreement for continued China-France future industry cooperation in Nanjing, indicating a long-term commitment to collaboration [3] Group 2: Investment and Economic Impact - Nanjing has established a strong foundation for investment, with 114 approved French investment projects and actual foreign capital usage reaching $1.16 billion [3] - The presence of a French semiconductor company launching an 8-inch silicon carbide chip production line in China demonstrates the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturing in terms of cost and technology [3] - The forum highlighted the importance of building relationships and networks in the future industry landscape, with a focus on mutual benefits and shared growth [2]

Group 1 - The military industry sector has shown significant movement, with the Aerospace and Defense ETF (159227) rising by 1.78% and achieving a trading volume of 132 million yuan, leading its category [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Yaguang Technology and Aerospace Development, reached their daily limit, while Tianhe Defense and Guoke Military Industry saw increases of 10% and over 9% respectively [1] - The recent geopolitical uncertainties, combined with notable improvements in the military sector's Q3 performance, suggest a potential new cycle of prosperity for the industry [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace and Defense ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on core military aerospace areas, with a high concentration of 98.2% in the primary military industry [2] - The index's component stocks have a significant weight of 68% in aerospace equipment, surpassing other military indices [2] - This ETF serves as an efficient tool for investing in leading "fighter jet stocks" and is currently the largest product tracking the National Aerospace Index [2] Group 3 - The strengthening of military security capabilities is identified as a strategic requirement for national development during a period of upheaval [1] - The next three years are crucial for the military's construction goals, aiming to achieve a world-class military by 2025, which marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The aerospace and defense sectors are expected to enter a new phase of higher prosperity as China accelerates its military equipment development to catch up with international standards [1]

Group 1 - The aerospace and defense sector showed resilience with the aerospace ETF (159227) turning positive after an initial dip, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF experienced a net inflow of 14.47 million yuan on the day, and over the past 20 trading days, it recorded net inflows on 14 occasions, totaling 474 million yuan, highlighting sustained capital attraction [1] - The successful test flights of the J-15T, J-35, and KJ-600 carrier-based aircraft on the Fujian aircraft carrier signify advancements in China's military capabilities, aligning with national strategic goals [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159227) closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of 97.96% in the military industry, covering critical sectors such as aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials [2] - The ETF includes leading companies in the military sector, focusing on emerging fields like large aircraft development and commercial aerospace [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a rebound in the military industry sector, particularly in the aerospace segment, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 0.73% as of 1:37 PM on September 10. Key stocks such as Hualichuangtong increased by over 4%, while AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and China Satellite rose by over 3% [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) is the largest aerospace and defense ETF in the market, having attracted a net inflow of 476 million yuan over the past nine trading days [1] - The importance of air power in modern warfare has led to a focus on aerospace equipment in military construction, with high technical barriers and significant value within the military industrial chain [1] - According to Tianfeng Securities, enhancing military security capabilities is a strategic requirement for national development in China. The next three years will focus on achieving the centenary goal of military construction, with a significant push towards becoming a world-class military by 2025 [1] - The Aerospace ETF tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of 97.96% in the military industry, covering a full range of aerospace and defense sectors including fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, and missiles [2]

Group 1 - The military industry sector has shown significant movement, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) narrowing its decline to 0.94% and achieving a trading volume of 1.89 billion yuan, making it the largest in its category [1] - The Aerospace ETF has reached a new high in size at 11.21 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the aerospace sector [1] - The Aerospace ETF tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has a high concentration of military-related stocks, covering a wide range of aerospace and defense technologies [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of strengthening military security capabilities as a strategic requirement for national development in China, particularly in the context of the upcoming centenary of the military [2] - The next three years are critical for the Chinese military to achieve its goals, with a focus on advancing aerospace and defense capabilities to a higher level of development [2] - By 2025, which marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's military equipment is expected to accelerate its catch-up with international advanced military forces [2]