分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 相关报告 证券研究报告 宏观点评 / 2025.08.01 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ "反内卷"后的首个 PMI 核心观点 1. 《中共中央政治局会议点评——聚焦结 构性改革》 2025-07-31 《政策保持克制——7 月政治局会议解 读 》 2025-07-31 3. 《美国内需延续转弱——美国 2025 年二 季度 GDP 数据解读》 2025-07-31 ❖ 7 月，价格是 PMI 最超预期的分项：7 月主要原材料购进价格指数和出 厂价格指数分别为 51.5%和 48.3%，分别较上月上升 3.1 和 2.1 个百分点， 价格分项超预期变化的背后是"反内卷"下企业预期的加速反应，我们把价格 指标抽丝剥茧，进一步分行业研究发现：上游加工业景气度靠前主因在原材 料价格大幅上行→企业为了维系利润→提高出厂价格，因此景气程度环比有 较多提升，中游制造业景气度提升次之可能是由于关税摩擦下，企业加大出 海力度，带动了对机械设备的需求。 ❖ "反内卷"第一个月， ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of 49.5%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased to 50.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index and new orders index in manufacturing are both in the expansion zone, with marginal increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 51% and 50.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - The internal demand index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.6%, outpacing the new export orders index, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7% [2] - High-frequency indicators show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade cargo volume narrowed from -3.8% to -3.5%, indicating a continued weakening in export strength [2] - The PMI data indicates a divergence in performance among enterprises, with large and medium-sized enterprises seeing increases in PMI, while small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to a potential weakening in export chain production as the equipment renewal cycle declines [3] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, are expected to support service consumption and infrastructure investment [3] - The PMI improvements in June were more pronounced in industries such as petroleum processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing, while sectors like electrical machinery and textiles saw significant declines [3]