证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-03-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260302：伊朗问题对股债商汇等大类资产的影响 事件：2026 年 02 月 28 日，美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击，伊朗对 以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击，阿联酋、巴林、科威特、沙特等中 东多国发生爆炸，中东地缘冲突正在加剧并扩散。 观点：2 月份以来， 地缘政治风险已悄然积聚，全球金融市场通过原油和黄金的联动上涨显 现出强烈的避险情绪。2 月 28 日伊朗地区军事冲突爆发，核心风险主要 体现在三个层面：（1）"能源咽喉"阻塞风险，霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油 运输的咽喉要道，运输量约 2000 万桶/日，约占全球石油总消费量的 20%， 约占全球 1/4 的海运石油贸易量，如果霍尔木兹海峡被实质性封锁，国际 原油价格极可能在短期内持续冲高；（2）化工产业链中断风险，伊朗是全 球第二大甲醇生产国，占全球产能约 10%，而中国超过 60%的进口甲醇 来自伊朗，供应中断将直接冲击下游的烯烃和塑料加工行业；（3）运费与 保险飙升风险，若地区冲突向着失控的局面演化，波斯湾及红海 ...

智通财经APP获悉，近日，有传闻称香港考虑扩大首次公开招股(IPO)保密申请范围，允许更广泛类型 的公司以此形式提交IPO申请。香港交易所发言人向媒体表示，港交所将继续与香港证监会紧密合作， 从多方面提升交易所的竞争力，将适时向市场公布相关进展。另外，香港证监会也向媒体表示，将继续 与香港交易所密切合作，探索进一步提升香港上市市场竞争力的举措，以确保香港继续成为优质企业首 选的上市目的地。 港交所发言人续称，港交所致力于优化市场基础设施和上市机制，确保与时俱进，过去几年推出了多项 重要改革，包括2018年推出允许同股不同权企业上市、允许尚无营业收入的生物科技公司上市的新规， 以及2023年推出特专科技企业上市机制。 ...

Group 1 - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, expresses cautious optimism for the market in the Year of the Horse, highlighting that three out of the last four Horse years experienced significant market gains [2][3] - There are currently 488 companies queued for IPO applications at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a vibrant market environment [7] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange aims to diversify its offerings in fixed income, currency, and commodities to meet international investors' needs and contribute to the internationalization of the Renminbi [11][12] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open and fair market environment to attract international investors, despite ongoing global uncertainties [5][6] - The exchange has completed 24 IPOs in 2026, raising over 87 billion HKD, with a daily trading volume that has recently exceeded 3,000 billion HKD [9] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to enhance its listing system and implement a T+1 settlement cycle, aiming to improve market competitiveness and efficiency [9][11] Group 3 - The exchange's CEO, Nicolas Aguzin, notes the increasing interest from international investors in diversifying their portfolios across various asset classes, including bonds and commodities [11][12] - The Hong Kong market is positioned to play a crucial role in connecting global investors with opportunities in mainland China, supported by the national "14th Five-Year Plan" [6][12] - The exchange is committed to developing a comprehensive ecosystem for fixed income, currency, and commodity markets, aiming for significant growth opportunities in the future [11][12]

香港金融市场在2025年表现非常活跃，并在新股市场及二级市场创下多项交易纪录新高，彰显香港作为亚洲领先国际 金融中心的地位。 新一代创新企业纷纷来港上市并藉着香港的平台继续扩展；与此同时，来自全球各地的投资者也藉着香港交易所市场 上多元化的产品组合捕捉机遇并进行风险管理。香港交易所的年度市场数据显示，现货证券及期货期权市场的集资活 动和产品生态圈都较前一年更丰富、多元和活跃。以下亮点分别回顾香港市场2025年的表现及介绍2026年的展望。 香港新股市场重回全球第一 2025年香港共迎来119家新上市企业，首次公开招股集资总额达到2,858亿港元，其中三家更跻身2025年全球十大新股 之列。新能源及人工智能等创新领域的发行人引领着强劲的创新科技市场浪潮，2025年香港新上市公司当中，新经济 公司占比超过三分之二。根据Dealogic的数据，在香港交易所上市的公司全年通过后续发行筹集了660亿美元，较2024 年的279亿美元升136%，充分印证了香港资本市场的活力和深度。 衍生产品成交创新高， 巩固亚洲风险管理中心地位 现货市场成交金额创新高 2025 年香港现货市场日均成交额按年增长 89.5%，达到 2,4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong capital market has shown strong momentum since 2026, with a significant increase in IPO applications, raising concerns about the market's capacity to absorb this influx [1][5]. Group 1: IPO Market Performance - The number of IPO applications in Hong Kong surged from over 300 at the end of 2025 to 414 by the end of January 2026, indicating a rapid growth of nearly 100 applications in just one month [1]. - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) regained the top position globally in IPO financing in 2025, with a daily trading volume that doubled to approximately 250 billion HKD, and the average daily trading volume for 2026 has reached 278 billion HKD [3]. - The market has received over 400 IPO applications, including 11 from international companies outside mainland China, showcasing global interest in entering the Chinese market through Hong Kong [3]. Group 2: Quality of IPOs - The quality of IPOs is emphasized as a key factor for attracting global investors, with the HKEX and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) focusing on the quality of sponsor submissions rather than the qualifications of the applicants themselves [3][5]. - HKEX has committed to a 40-working-day timeline for IPO approvals, contingent on the quality of submitted materials, which is aimed at ensuring high-quality listings [3]. Group 3: Market Capacity and Demand - HKEX's CEO expressed confidence that the market can absorb the influx of IPOs, attributing this to strong demand from international capital seeking diversified investment opportunities [5]. - The CEO highlighted that as long as the IPOs are of high quality, foreign capital will continue to flow into the market, negating concerns about a "backlog" of IPOs [5]. Group 4: Global Investor Interest - Since 2025, there has been a noticeable return of foreign capital to the Hong Kong market, driven by a desire for diversified asset allocation amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [7]. - The CEO noted that the Hong Kong market is providing attractive investment opportunities, which has been confirmed by international interest observed at events like the World Economic Forum in Davos [7]. Group 5: Future Market Development - HKEX plans to enhance its fixed income market as a core strategic focus for 2026, aiming to provide a broader range of investment options beyond equities [8]. - The exchange has invested in the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) to build a foundation for the fixed income market and intends to collaborate with regulatory bodies and partners to develop a comprehensive market ecosystem [8].

Group 1 - The CEO of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Charles Li, stated that there are currently over 400 companies waiting to go public, indicating strong demand for IPOs and a rising willingness among global investors for diversified allocations, alleviating concerns about a "bottleneck" in listings [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market is recognized by international investors, with a strong recovery expected in 2025, projected to raise HKD 285.8 billion, regaining the top position globally [1] - As of January 30, 2026, there have been 459 applications for listings on the main board, with 409 applications currently under review, and 11 IPOs completed in the first three weeks of the year, raising approximately USD 4 billion [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, the number of listing applications in Hong Kong has surged, leading to concerns about the quality of application materials, prompting the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to require 13 sponsors to submit internal review reports within three months and to suspend 16 listing applications [2] - The CEO welcomed the regulatory focus on the quality of materials submitted by sponsors rather than the quality of the listing applicants, emphasizing that the quality of listed companies has always been a key factor in attracting global investors to Hong Kong [2] - Under the current listing process, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange must confirm within 40 working days whether there are significant regulatory concerns, provided that the listing application materials meet the required standards [2]

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者朱丽娜 香港报道 港交所CEO陈翊庭2月4日在出席媒体活动时表示，目前有超过400家公司排队上市，企业上市需求十分 旺盛的同时，全球投资者对于寻求投资多元化的兴趣不断提升，因此不担心出现上市"堰塞湖"现象。 在当前的市场背景下，全球投资者纷纷寻求多元化配置。"香港IPO（首次公开募股）特别受到国际投 资者的青睐，过去一年半我们看到，只要有优质的IPO，海外的资金就会进来。香港始终是一个开放的 市场，资金可以随时流入。有好的企业上市，就会有四面八方的钱来打新，'堰塞湖'的问题不存 在。"陈翊庭说。 近日，香港证监会发通函指示上市保荐人从速进行内部检讨，以纠正招股文件准备工作中的严重缺失。 1月30日，香港证监会要求13名保荐人针对胜任能力等问题于3个月内提交内部检讨报告，并表示已暂停 16宗上市申请的审理流程。 图为港交所CEO陈翊庭。 21世纪经济报道资料图片。 对此，陈翊庭表示欢迎，并指出"香港证监会关注的是保荐人递表的材料的质量，而不是上市申请人的 质量"。 她强调："上市公司质量一直是香港吸引全球投资者的底气。" 进入2026年，IPO上市热潮仍在继续，根据港交所公布的数据 ...

| 首次公開招股申請(於2026年1月30日) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主板 | | GEM | 真他 (1) | 總數 | | A. 處理之上市申請數目(2026年截至本報告日止)(2)(3) | 459 | 7 | 8 | 474 | | (4) | | 1 | . | | | 1. 於2025年12月31日未處理完畢的現有申請及重 | 364 | 6 | 1 | 371 | | 新申請 | | | | | | 2.2026年受理之新申請 (5) | વેર | 1 | 7 | 103 | | 總計 | 459 | 7 | 8 | 474 | | 於2026年1月30日的申請狀況(2) | | | | | | 1.已上市(6) | 12 | 1 | 6 | 19 | | 2. 已獲上市委員會批准,待上市 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 27 | | 3. 處理中 | 408 | 6 | 1 | 415 | | 4.其他(申請的處理期限已過(7、申請被拒(8)、 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 | | 被發回申請(8)(9)或自行撤回申請) ...

- The report focuses on the analysis of the industries where Northbound funds have increased their holdings, particularly highlighting sectors such as power and new energy equipment, electronics, and metal materials and mining[1][5][13] - Northbound funds' total holdings in A-shares amounted to approximately 2.59 trillion yuan as of December 31, 2025, representing an increase of about 46 billion yuan compared to September 30, 2025[1][5][13] - Relative to the CSI 300 Index, Northbound funds were significantly overweight in the power and new energy equipment sector, with an allocation ratio of approximately 18.0%, compared to 8.6% in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an overweight of about 9.5%[5][15] - The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were metal materials and mining, electronics, power and new energy equipment, telecommunications, and insurance[6][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q4 2025 were new energy vehicle equipment, basic non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, precious metals, and components and devices[6][25]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) announced the launch of six new stock option categories on January 19, aimed at expanding the stock options market and providing investors with more choices [1] - The average daily trading volume in the HKEX derivatives market reached 1,662,751 contracts last year, marking a 7% year-on-year increase and setting a new record [1] - Stock options, including monthly and weekly expiry contracts, were among the most actively traded products, with an average daily trading volume of 879,831 contracts last year, which is a 22% year-on-year increase and also a record high [1] Group 2 - The new stock options include contracts for companies such as Anjin Huangjin Guo Yi Limited (2259), Wuxi Zhenming Kangde New Town Development Co., Ltd. (2359), and others, with varying contract sizes and expiry months [2] - Specific contract sizes for the new options range from 100 shares to 3,000 shares, catering to different investor needs [2] - The introduction of these new options is expected to enhance liquidity and trading opportunities in the stock options market [2]