1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having various outlooks such as oscillation, oscillation - weakening, and oscillation - strengthening [1][6][7]. - For different commodities: - Oils: Narrow - range oscillation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and a suggestion to consider buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - Protein meals: Domestic double meals oscillate mainly, with international factors supporting US soybeans and domestic factors affecting the market [1][7]. - Corn: Oscillates, with industry news and emotions affecting futures, and attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. - Pigs: Oscillates weakly, with supply - demand being loose, and different trends in the short, medium, and long - term [9]. - Natural rubber: Oscillates, with attention to previous high resistance, and the market influenced by capital and fundamentals [11][12]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillates upward following natural rubber, with the mid - term bullish logic remaining unchanged [13]. - Cotton: Oscillates strongly in the medium - long term, waiting for new driving forces in the short term [14]. - Sugar: Oscillates weakly in the medium - long term, with a downward driving force due to expected oversupply [16]. - Pulp: Oscillates, with weak supply - demand before the Spring Festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. - Double - gum paper: Oscillates weakly, with the market in a low - level oscillation during the holiday [18]. - Logs: Oscillates, with the spot being stable and the market in a range - bound operation [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1. Oils - **View**: Oils show narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's February report adjusted relevant data, and the market is affected by factors such as demand expectations, biodiesel policies, and export performance. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by capital emotions, and the industrial end has different supply - demand situations for different oils. For example, soybeans have relatively sufficient supply, and palm oil has inventory and export issues [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all oscillate [6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meals - **View**: Optimistic emotions support US soybeans, and domestic double meals oscillate mainly [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA's February supply - demand report is bearish, but the market has optimistic export expectations and the US biodiesel plan boosts US soybean oil. Domestically, factors such as pre - holiday capital flight, logistics stagnation, and expected post - holiday cost reduction affect the market [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate [1][7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **View**: Industry news disturbs the market, and corn increases positions and rises [8]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by industry news and emotions, while the spot market is gradually entering the holiday, with stable prices and low trading volume. Attention should be paid to factors such as grain sales progress, policy grain auctions, and wheat conditions [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. 3.1.4. Pigs - **View**: Supply - demand is loose, and spot prices continue to weaken [9]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, there are different situations in the short, medium, and long - term; demand shows an increase in slaughter volume; inventory shows a continuous decrease in average pig weight. The price is expected to weaken in the short - term and is affected by different production capacities in different periods [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a potential bottom - out and recovery in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to previous high resistance [11][12]. - **Logic**: The rubber price runs strongly, mainly driven by capital emotions. The short - term support is effective, and the overall is in a bullish trend. The current trading logic is mainly affected by the macro - environment, with relatively weak fundamentals but good expectations [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with limited fundamental variables and increasing capital attention [12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Follow natural rubber to oscillate upward [13]. - **Logic**: The BR market follows natural rubber to rise slightly, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The raw material market is affected by factors such as export news and downstream demand [13]. - **Outlook**: Mid - term oscillation - strengthening, with a need for adjustment in the short - term due to rapid price increase [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton price rebounds [14]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. After the festival, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the terminal demand may drive the price to rise. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance, and the planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - strengthening, with a suggestion to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar price oscillates weakly in the medium - long term [16]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. The supply increase puts pressure on the price [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a suggestion to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **View**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures fluctuate independently [17]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, with low demand from the terminal and downstream. After the festival, the seasonal recovery of demand may bring marginal benefits. The valuation support has weakened, and the downward space is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with weak supply - demand before the festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - gum Paper - **View**: Factories enter the holiday, and the market maintains low - level oscillation [18]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading in the double - gum paper market ends, with stable spot prices and low - level oscillation. The industry is affected by factors such as production line operation, downstream consumption, and market demand [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with the market expected to be stagnant during the holiday and attention to the post - holiday consumption recovery [18]. 3.1.11. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market operates within a range [20]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market trading is basically stagnant, with stable spot prices and range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as news, valuation, supply, and delivery [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the market having no new driving force in the short - term and maintaining range - bound operation [20]. 3.2. Commodity Index - On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index), and plate index (agricultural product index) of CITIC Futures all showed certain changes. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.32%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.27%, the industrial product index increased by 0.41%, and the agricultural product index increased by 0.34% on that day [179][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongmi Holdings (300470.SZ) announced the commencement of the second perfluoroether rubber production line at Youtai Technology, which is scheduled to start construction in December 2025 and is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2 - The announcement indicates a strategic expansion in production capacity for Zhongmi Holdings, which may enhance its market position in the perfluoroether rubber industry [1] - The timeline for the new production line suggests a forward-looking approach to meet anticipated demand in the sector [1] - The completion of the new facility could potentially lead to increased revenue streams for the company starting in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of agricultural products and rural revitalization efforts showcased at the Winter Trade Fair, emphasizing the importance of industry collaboration and innovation in enhancing local economies and agricultural practices [7][8][9]. Group 1: Product Showcase - A variety of unique agricultural products, including colorful peanuts and specialty sweet potatoes, were presented at the Winter Trade Fair, demonstrating the achievements of the integration of agricultural and local resources [7]. - The Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group showcased its innovative products and collaborative efforts with local governments to promote agricultural development and rural revitalization [7][8]. Group 2: Innovative Mechanisms - The partnership between Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group and Wenchang City’s Gongpo Town introduced a new model of industry integration, involving the establishment of strong village companies and the appointment of rural CEOs to enhance local agricultural practices [8][9]. - The collaboration aims to revitalize local assets and create job opportunities for villagers by leveraging the strengths of state-owned enterprises in technology and market experience [9][10]. Group 3: Support Mechanisms - The "Five Unifications" mechanism was established to ensure stable agricultural development by providing unified supply of seeds, feed, technology, prevention, and sales, alleviating farmers' concerns [11]. - Since 2021, over 1,200 farmers have collaborated with the company, generating a total output value of 10.05 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of deep integration between enterprises and farmers [12]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment - The Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group has focused on technological empowerment to enhance agricultural production, integrating high-quality agricultural capabilities with local service demands [14]. - The establishment of the rural property transaction service platform has facilitated efficient management and flow of rural assets, contributing to the digital transformation of agricultural practices [15].

Core Insights - Cambodia's international trade total reached $46.99 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] Trade Performance - Exports amounted to $22.38 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.9% [1] - Imports totaled $24.61 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [1] Major Trade Partners - The top three trading partners for Cambodia are China, the United States, and Vietnam, with trade values of $14.2 billion, $9.56 billion, and $6.05 billion respectively [1] Export Composition - Cambodia's export product structure is diverse, including key manufacturing and agricultural sectors such as clothing, leather goods, fur products, travel goods, handbags, and footwear [1] - Other significant exports include grains, rubber, furniture, machinery and electrical equipment, electrical parts, and fruits [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].