大家好，我是乔叔，今天跟大家唠唠2026年人民币汇率起伏背后的那些门道，看看到底是该换外币还是 守住咱手里的人民币。 2025年，全球几大经济体的央行像隔空下棋，每一步都牵动着老百姓的钱袋子。 美元的表现有点让人瞠目结舌，美联储像开错档的老司机一样，降息降得断断续续，市场对2026年的方 向根本摸不准。美元这一年跌得有点猛，还把自己拉成了自2003年以来的"倒数第一"。 同时，欧洲央行稳住阵脚，欧元一路坚挺。美欧货币政策这股冷热交替，直接把全球金融市场搅得风高 浪急。 人民币的两张面孔 全球这场大博弈下，人民币的表现变得复杂。一方面，人民币在对上美元的时候显得格外硬气。 一整年涨了快百分之四，年底还摸到6.99的关口，这可不是头一回了，但这一次是靠实力"水涨船高"。 可到了欧元这边，情况马上翻转，人民币对欧元的表现就没那么两眼了，全年差不多贬了百分之十。 等到年底，想换欧元的家长发现，今年得比年初多掏不少钱，换一万美元倒能省下一大笔。这种对不同 货币的"冷热交替"，让人换钱的时候都有点发愁，心里总觉得不甘心。 国内底气撑起汇率 人民币能有这番表现，靠的不是运气，而是在背后有中国经济的硬实力在兜底。一方面，中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is supported by strong domestic exports and a weakening US dollar index, indicating a robust fundamental backing for the currency's strength [2][4][6]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation Factors - The RMB has appreciated by 1000 basis points this year, reaching a nearly one-year high, primarily due to a 6.2% year-on-year increase in exports over the first ten months [2][4]. - The resilience of the RMB is attributed to the stability of China's supply chain and the ongoing positive impact of foreign trade on the economy [4][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar, driven by policy uncertainties in the US, has also contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as global capital preferences shift away from dollar-denominated assets [6][8]. Group 2: Short-term vs Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the RMB may experience volatility influenced by capital flows and market sentiment, with potential for periodic corrections [10]. - Over the long term, the RMB is expected to appreciate further, potentially breaking the 7 mark against the dollar, driven by valuation differences between US and Chinese assets [12][14]. - The attractiveness of Chinese financial assets and the ongoing economic recovery in China are likely to support this long-term appreciation trend [14]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment for Stablecoins - Recent regulatory measures have tightened oversight on stablecoins, with the central bank emphasizing the prohibition of virtual currency trading to prevent financial risks [20][22]. - The focus of regulation includes preventing money laundering and maintaining currency sovereignty, ensuring that the stability of the RMB is not compromised by virtual currency transactions [22][24]. - The regulatory approach suggests a potential for controlled experimentation with stablecoins in specific applications, while speculative activities will face strict limitations [24][26].