关税政策本想帮忙，结果帮倒忙。从2018年开始加关税，到2025年扩展到钢铁、电子产品，税率25%到60%不等。企业成本直线上升，美国商会报告说， 89%的制造商成本涨了。消费者呢？额外支出每年3800美元左右。 说起美国制造业回流，这几年闹得沸沸扬扬，尤其是特朗普那时候推的关税政策，总想着用高关税把工厂逼回本土。结果呢，现实骨感得很。2025年都过了 一大半了，看看数据，制造业就业岗位不升反降，8月份丢了1.2万个工作，全年下来已经少了7.8万个。局劳工统计局的数据摆在那儿，不是随便说说的。工 厂想回来，劳动力从哪儿来？基础设施跟得上吗？供应链一断就乱套。这些问题堆在一起，回流听起来像个笑话。 先说劳动力这事儿。美国制造业现在缺人缺得慌。2025年2月份，就有48.2万个岗位空着没人干。制造业研究所和德勤的报告估摸着，到2033年，这个缺口 能到190万个。为什么？年轻人不爱进厂啊。现在的工厂不像以前那么简单，自动化到处都是，需要懂软件、数据分析、编码这些玩意儿。以前的蓝领工人 转不过弯来，新一代更愿意去科技公司或者服务行业混。 制造业平均时薪30多美元，听着不错，但比起硅谷那些高薪岗位，吸引力差远了。结果 ...

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]