美联储10月会议纪要显示，会议期间获取的信息显示，实际GDP增速在今年上半年有所放缓。受联邦政 府停摆影响，劳动力市场信息有限；然而现有指标均表明劳动力市场持续逐步降温，未见任何急剧恶化 迹象。消费者价格通胀自年初以来上升，且仍保持较高水平。根据消费者价格指数数据测算，9月份以 个人消费支出价格指数12个月变动衡量的整体通胀率预估为2.8%。剔除能源、多数食品价格波动的核 心PCE通胀率同期同样预估为2.8%。这些数据意味着整体PCE通胀率较一年前上升0.5个百分点，而核心 PCE通胀率与去年同期持平。（格隆汇） ...

Economic Overview - The economy is experiencing strong growth, with second-quarter growth reported at nearly 4% and current indicators suggesting similar growth rates [9][10] - Retail sales have increased year-over-year by approximately 7%, indicating that consumers have disposable income and are actively spending [10] - Industrial production is at an all-time high, reflecting a surge in onshoring production and significant investment in the U.S. [10] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The consumer price inflation report indicates a 3% increase over the last 12 months, which is a slight decrease from previous expectations [3][4] - Special factors, such as a refinery shutdown, have contributed to price increases, particularly in gas prices, but expectations are that inflation is decelerating [5] Trade Relations - Trade talks with Canada have been suspended due to frustrations over progress and an incident involving a misleading advertisement [6][8] - The current trade environment is characterized by tariff turmoil, yet the overall economic indicators suggest resilience despite these challenges [9]

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]

Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].