Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS analysts express optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, citing macroeconomic improvements, strong policy support, optimized market structure, and continued capital inflows as key factors [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a significant rebound, with a projected 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) driven by revenue growth, share buybacks, and improved profit margins [3] - The A-share market is anticipated to see an 8% growth in earnings, with a shift in growth drivers from financial sectors to a broader range of non-financial enterprises [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified include artificial intelligence (especially hardware and semiconductor equipment), leading internet companies, brokerage firms, and companies with strong international capabilities [3][4] - The growth potential in cyclical sectors, such as certain metals and chemicals, is highlighted, alongside a cautious outlook for consumer sectors that may require more time to show substantial improvement [4] Group 3: IPO and M&A Trends - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to remain active in 2026, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications, and a potential increase in financing scale compared to 2025 [6][7] - The M&A market is projected to continue its active trend, driven by domestic state-owned enterprise restructuring, large private equity transactions, and a resurgence in cross-border M&A activities [8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 4.5% for 2026, with inflation expected to rise to around 0.4% and a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [9] - The structural rebalancing theme is emphasized, with expectations for infrastructure investment to recover, supporting overall investment cycles [9] Group 5: AI Industry Development - The Chinese AI industry is set for significant advancements in 2026, with improvements in model capabilities and a broader range of application scenarios anticipated [10][11] - The focus on practical applications of AI, such as cloud services and advertising, is expected to drive commercialization efforts [11] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" in China are deemed low, as leading model firms rely on existing business cash flows for R&D, and there is a pragmatic approach to capital expenditures [11][12]

对于一季度A股市场的展望，孟磊表示瑞银证券对此持乐观看法，认为A股历来有一个传统的说法为"春 季躁动"，即整体流动性偏向于宽松，整体市场的股票估值出现上行，目前在演绎的行情有可能跟"春季 躁动"有一定的关联性。从全球市场来说，开年以来，全球股票市场都处在上行。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)1月13日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊在第二十六届瑞银大中华研讨会上表 示，2026年A股盈利同比增长预计将加速至8%，更明确的政策支持与股市结构性改革有望助力市场估 值提升，市场对盈利增长的一致预期迎来上修。 当前个人投资者情绪并未过热，主动型公募基金新发规模或温和复苏。"我们更多观察到中长线资金入 市的迹象，从主动型公募基金的历史来看，它的发行情况是落后于募资、落后于股价的，股价上涨才会 有更多的钱进股票市场。我们看到的情况是在过去6个月当中，整体的基金发行份额在温和地复苏。"孟 磊表示。 长线资金通过ETF持续入市A股。孟磊介绍，例如，人工智能等主题的相关ETF获得非常明显的资金进 入，被动资金的流入推动行业龙头跑赢市场。此外，私募证券投资基金份额的提升推升小盘股估值，保 险资金有望持续入市。 行业配置上，孟磊表示，科技创 ...