欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 华尔街见闻 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配 置的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 ← Article T+ Reply 7 ( " " Rav Dalio @RavDalio RAY DALL 2025 | | | Though the facts and returns are indisputable, I see things differently from most others. While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest ret ...

瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊向上海证券报记者表示，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从2025年的 6%进一步升至8%。名义GDP增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续出台，以及"反内卷"政策的推进 带动利润率复苏，都将对整体盈利改善起到推动作用。 法国巴黎资产管理首席市场策略师Daniel Morris在报告中特别提及，中国利润增长的最大潜力集中在科 技行业。他表示，相比于其他新兴市场，中国科技行业还具备一项额外优势：中国科技企业收入更多来 自服务领域而非商品出口，因此受贸易政策影响较小。凭借庞大的国内市场规模、高素质的工程技术人 才储备，以及发展自身技术生态系统的决心，中国科技公司能够实现显著的未来利润增长。 （上接1版） 花旗私人银行同样在近期的投资报告中称，新兴市场板块中，维持对中国市场的超配评级。为了优化资 产配置，该机构日前减持了中国以外的亚洲新兴市场股票。鉴于亚洲新兴市场今年以来表现亮眼，花旗 私人银行认为现在可以考虑获取利润，并为来年投资组合调整布局。 企业盈利改善是核心驱动力 展望2026年，外资机构普遍对中国股票持积极观点，而在一系列驱动因素中，企业盈利的实质改善成为 支撑市场向上的最关键所在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for various ETFs, particularly the 中证A500ETF, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][3] - On December 17, multiple 中证A500ETF products reached record trading volumes, with 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF achieving a trading volume of 14.118 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The 中证A500ETF is recognized as a new generation of broad-based ETFs, balancing core large-cap assets with growth potential across various leading companies in niche sectors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors are significant holders of broad-based ETFs, with over 80% of the shares in 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF held by institutions as of June 30 [1] - The trading activity of other broad-based ETFs also surged, with 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF reaching a trading volume of 5.079 billion yuan and 华夏科创50ETF at 3.948 billion yuan on the same day [2] - Since November, net subscriptions for equity ETFs have totaled 105.241 billion yuan, with a notable single-day net subscription of 15.688 billion yuan on December 16 [2] Group 3 - The 港股 innovation drug theme ETFs have also attracted significant capital, with 汇添富港股通创新药ETF and 广发港股创新药ETF seeing net subscriptions of 3.624 billion yuan and over 2.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Several ETFs have reached new highs in terms of shares outstanding, including 南方中证A500ETF with 25.131 billion shares and 华夏恒生科技ETF with 66.012 billion shares [3] - New fund launches have maintained high interest, with several funds exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in issuance in December, and some funds announcing early closure of their fundraising [3] Group 4 - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view on equity assets, with 富国基金 noting that the equity risk premium for the 沪深300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation [4] - Continued macro liquidity support is expected to create a favorable environment for equities and commodities, with a moderate expansion in the global credit cycle [4] - The combination of ongoing domestic demand policies and stabilizing external demand is anticipated to further solidify corporate profit recovery [4]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者姚立琦 1 1 月市场小幅调整。 2025 年 11 月，上证综合指数震荡调整，日均成交环比下降。 当月收盘 3888.60 点，较 2025 年 10 月末下跌 1.67% 。上海市场日均成交额为 8069 亿元，环比减少 16% 。 11 月上证指数实际的高点是 4034.08 点，低点是 3816.58 点，基本符 合我们的预期。沪深 300 指数 10 月基本平盘，日均成交 4638 亿元，环比减少 26.1% ；全月最高点 4707.13 点，全月最低点 4421.81 点，基本符合我们的预期。 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 美联储 12 月降息预期主导全球资本市场走向。 美联储十月议息会议后，关于 12 月是否降息的预期出现了明显的波动。首先是美联储主 席鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，导致降息预期的大幅下滑和全球资本市场的调整。 11 月 21 日，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表偏鸽言论，称近期仍有 进一步降息空间，市场对 12 月降息的预期概率迅速攀升至近 70% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index and the implications of Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global capital markets, highlighting the importance of market support and resistance levels [1][6][11]. Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [6][10]. - The highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index in November was 4034.08 points, while the lowest was 3816.58 points, aligning with expectations [9][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% [6][10]. Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly influenced global capital market trends, with market expectations for a rate cut rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams [6][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, marking a second consecutive month of increase [7][13]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a more stagnant market environment [7][15]. - The number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is declining, specific sectors may be experiencing stronger performance [7][15]. Trading Volume and Price Relationship - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month to 1914.7 billion yuan, down 11.5% from October, reflecting a typical correlation between trading volume and market price movements [7][17]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing significant price adjustments [8][19]. - Historical data indicates that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months [8][19]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing resistance after a downward adjustment in November, having broken below the 60-day moving average, with key support now at the levels established in 2021 [6][21]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed significant adjustments in November, with two downward gaps and a breach of the 60-day moving average, indicating potential challenges ahead [6][24].

文/ 申万宏源证券研究所所长、博士后科研工作站负责人 王胜 金 融 学 研 究 未 来 ， 定 价 未 来 ， " 看 长 做 短 " ， 2 02 6 年 资 本 市 场 的 实 际 表 现，更多取决于投资者对中长期基本面的预期变化。"十五五"是我国冲刺 20 35年远景目标的关键五年，从全球维度看，这一阶段世界格局正经历 深度调整，我国主动扩大国际公共产品供给，更带领广大发展中国家推动 构建更公平合理的全球新秩序；聚焦国内，现代化产业体系加速构建、新 质生产力培育全面推进。 金融强国资本市场应该具备什么样的特征 有实力、有信心的主动开放是资本市场迈向金融强国的时代背景。随着综合国力与产业实力的跃升，中国在全球格局中的定位有所提升，从 "一带一路" 倡议的持续深化，到全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议的落地推进，中国正提供更多基础设施建设、贸易便利化、公共卫 生合作等领域的公 共产品，覆盖发展中国家核心需求。这种供给并非单向输出，而是基于"共商共建共享"原则，形成"中国赋能全球、全球反哺中国"的共赢格局，为国内产 业出海、资本跨境流动开辟广阔空间。而经济韧性、产业竞争力与金融风控能力的增强，让中国更有 ...

Core Points - The CSI A500 Index experienced a decline of 4.27% this week, closing at 5325.99 points as of November 21 [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 6047.97 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.94% compared to the previous week [6] - All 40 CSI A500 funds saw a decline, with losses exceeding 3%, indicating a broad market downturn [6] Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index closed at 5325.99 points, down 4.27% for the week [2][6] - The total trading volume for the week was 30239.84 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 6047.97 billion yuan [2][6] Top Performers - The top gainers for the week included: - Aerospace Development (000547.SZ) with a gain of 31.77% - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058.SZ) with a gain of 20.18% - Tongcheng New Materials (603650.SH) with a gain of 14.75% [4] Bottom Performers - The top losers for the week included: - Defang Nano (300769.SZ) with a loss of 19.27% - New Zhongbang (300037.SZ) with a loss of 17.98% - Goodwe (688390.SH) with a loss of 17.59% [4] Fund Performance - The total scale of CSI A500 funds has fallen below 200 billion yuan, currently at 1920.64 billion yuan [6] - The largest funds by scale include: - Huatai-PB A500 ETF with 256.97 billion yuan - E Fund A500 ETF with 226.45 billion yuan - Guotai Fund's CSI A500 ETF with 212.14 billion yuan [6] Market Analysis - According to Huaxin Securities, the A-share market is currently in a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external factors such as the rising US dollar index and internal factors like profit-taking in technology stocks [7] - The report indicates that while there are signals for a short-term adjustment, the bull market is still in its mid-stage, awaiting further capital inflows from residents, public funds, and foreign investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the A-share market, highlighting a recovery in profit growth for listed companies, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and changes in market dynamics indicating a shift towards a more cautious investment environment [6][11][12]. Group 1: Profit Growth of Listed Companies - The profit growth of A-share listed companies has turned positive after a prolonged period of decline, with a non-financial and "three barrels of oil" adjusted net profit growth rate of 7.0% in Q1 2023, followed by low single-digit growth in the subsequent quarters [6][11]. - The expectation is for continued low positive growth in Q4 2023, aided by a lower comparative base in 2024 [11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 63.00%, down from 91.70% a week prior, indicating internal disagreements within the committee [12]. - Despite the decrease in probability, a rate cut remains a likely event, which may still influence market risk appetite [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Preferences - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index showed a slight recovery to 5.70 at the end of September, interrupting a downward trend that had persisted since April, suggesting a slight decline in investor risk appetite [7][15]. - The number of stocks with over 20% gains in October 2025 dropped to 237, a 41% decrease from the previous month, indicating a significant reduction in market risk appetite and a return to a sideways market structure [18]. Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance after attempting to break out of a trading range in October, suggesting the need for further market consolidation [20]. - The CSI 300 index experienced volatility, with significant technical resistance at levels established during the second half of 2021, while key support levels are identified at the 2016 and 2020 lows [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concerns about an AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, contrasting current market conditions with the 2000 dot-com bubble, particularly focusing on valuation, corporate debt, and macro investment trends [2][10]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The current valuation of the S&P 500 index has reached levels comparable to those in 1999-2000, while the absolute and relative valuations of MAG7 are significantly lower than those of the Nasdaq during the same period. As of the end of October, MAG7's PE ratio is approximately 41X, which is 1.4 times that of the S&P 500 index [3][11]. - In 1999-2000, the Nasdaq's PE ratio exceeded 100X, over four times that of the S&P 500. Notable companies today, such as Nvidia (59X), META (23X), Microsoft (37X), and Oracle (59X), have valuations lower than those of companies like Cisco (200X) and Yahoo (666X) back in March 2000 [3][11]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the S&P 500 is currently around 4%, compared to less than 1% at the beginning of 2000. A simple estimation using PE ratios suggests an ERP of approximately -0.6% now, versus a low of -2.9% in early 2000 [16]. Group 2: Corporate Debt - The debt-to-asset ratio for the S&P 500 is about 27%, lower than the average of 38% during 1999-2000. The MAG7's debt-to-asset ratio is approximately 17%, the lowest since 2015 [4][19]. - The debt-to-EBITDA ratio for the S&P 500 is around 3.6, compared to an average of 4.7 in 1999-2000. For MAG7, this ratio is about 0.6, also the lowest since 2015 [4][19]. Group 3: Macro Investment and Profits - Private investment in information processing equipment in the U.S. accounts for 2% of nominal GDP as of Q2 this year, which is relatively low compared to 2.8% during the 1999-2000 peak. Software investment is at 2.4%, slightly above the trend from 2004-2019, while it was 1.5% in 1999-2000 [22]. - The EPS of the S&P 500 has not shown significant divergence from U.S. corporate profits, unlike the period from 1998 to 2000, where EPS was inflated due to stock options and other accounting practices [23].

Group 1 - UBS believes that despite the current U.S. stock market meeting all seven conditions for a bubble, the "rationality" of the current AI bubble far exceeds that of the 2000 period, and key peak events have yet to occur [1][2] - The report highlights that the strong productivity enhancement potential of generative AI, along with the current higher risk in government balance sheets compared to corporations, provides a more solid foundation for valuation expansion than during the 2000 internet bubble [1][4] Group 2 - UBS identifies three key signals indicating that the bubble has not yet peaked: extreme valuations, long-term overheating catalysts, and short-term peak events have not yet appeared [1][8] - Current market estimates suggest a 20% probability of a bubble, emphasizing the need for investors to understand key signals that may indicate a bubble burst [1] Group 3 - The adoption speed of generative AI is unprecedented, with OpenAI attracting 800 million users in just three years, compared to Google's 13 years for the same scale [3] - If generative AI can temporarily boost productivity growth by 2%, it could support a 20-25% upside in the stock market [3] Group 4 - The macro risk structure has fundamentally changed since the 2000 internet bubble, with the U.S. government now having a debt-to-GDP ratio twice that of the past, while corporate balance sheets, especially among tech giants, remain relatively strong [4][7] - This "weak government, strong corporate" dynamic may lead investors to shift funds from nominal assets like bonds to real assets like stocks, thereby lowering the equity risk premium (ERP) requirement and supporting higher stock valuations [7] Group 5 - Current valuations in the AI sector are not extreme, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of major tech companies at 35 times, significantly below bubble levels [9][11] - The ERP is still around 3%, indicating that the market has not completely ignored risks due to excessive optimism [11] Group 6 - There are no signs of excessive investment or leverage that typically precede a bubble burst; ICT investment as a percentage of GDP remains below the peak levels of 2000 [18][21] - The capital expenditure to sales ratio for major data center operators is approaching levels seen in 2000, but these companies primarily rely on strong cash flows rather than debt for investments [21][24] Group 7 - The current breadth of the market is not as narrow as in 1999, where the number of declining stocks was nearly double that of advancing stocks during the Nasdaq's rise [24][27] - Overall corporate profits in the U.S. remain robust, contrasting with the decline seen during the internet bubble, indicating a healthier market environment [27] Group 8 - No short-term peak events have been triggered, such as major merger and acquisition activity comparable to the significant deals during the internet bubble [28][29] - Current monetary policy is not at a level that would severely impact growth, with the expected nominal GDP growth for 2026 at 5.2% [32] - Profit momentum for tech stocks remains strong, and price momentum has not reached extreme levels, suggesting that the market is not yet at a peak [33][36] Group 9 - UBS provides a detailed "bubble map" indicating that despite the AI frenzy, key indicators across valuation, macro catalysts, and short-term triggers suggest that this market phase may not be nearing its end [36] - However, potential bubbles may exist within the tech sector, particularly in the semiconductor industry, where high profit margins could face pressure from increasing capital intensity and competition [36][38]