两大需求引擎虹吸全球供应 铂金库存的快速消耗，主要由两大需求引擎驱动。 首先是美国市场的囤积行为。最新的动态显示，对关税的担忧促使大量铂金流向美国仓库。仅在过去三周，纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）认证仓 库的铂金库存就增加了近29万盎司。 与此同时，全球最大的铂金消费市场也在以前所未有的速度进口，进一步加剧了全球供应的紧张局势。亚洲主要消费国在第二季度吸纳了创纪录 的120万盎司铂金，其进口量持续高于预估的国内消耗量。 一场席卷全球的铂金供应紧缩正将市场推向临界点。 据彭博最新报道，由于铂金供应连续多年出现缺口，叠加美国等主要消费市场对实物金属的强劲吸纳，伦敦和苏黎世等关键交易中心的库存正迅 速枯竭。 全球铂金库存的快速消耗导致该金属价格年内飙升45%，目前交投于每盎司1320美元附近。而此前十年的大部分时间里，铂金价格一直在每盎司 800美元至1100美元之间波动。 市场最直观的"压力计"——铂金的借贷成本，已飙升至异常高位。数据显示，一个月期铂金租赁利率持续维持在10%以上，虽低于7月时超过35% 的峰值，但远高于通常接近于零的正常水平。这直接反映了持有者出借实物铂金的意愿极低，市场流动性严重枯竭。 供应缺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly since May 2025, reaching approximately 300 RMB per gram and 1286 USD per ounce, marking a nearly 40% increase year-to-date and a five-year high [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - Supply-side challenges include unstable electricity supply and frequent strikes in South Africa, the largest producer, leading to a noticeable decline in platinum production [2]. - The discovery of new large platinum mines is becoming increasingly difficult, and existing mines are experiencing declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, further constraining supply [2]. - Although recycled platinum can supplement market supply, growth in recycling is slow due to technological limitations and complex recovery channels [2]. Group 2: Demand-Side Support - The jewelry market is shifting towards platinum due to its relative price advantage over gold, with global demand for platinum jewelry expected to grow by 5% to 66 tons by 2025, and a 15% increase in China to 15 tons [5]. - The green hydrogen industry is emerging as a significant demand driver for platinum, as it is essential for proton exchange membrane electrolyzers in hydrogen production [5]. - The automotive sector is undergoing structural changes, with increased demand for platinum from new plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), despite an overall expected decline in global automotive production [6]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - Optimistic analysts predict a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons in 2025, with supply growth at -0.4% and demand growth at 10.8%, supporting a bullish outlook for platinum prices [9]. - Cautious analysts warn that the current price surge may be driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements, suggesting potential price corrections if speculative interest wanes [10]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors should assess their investment goals and risk tolerance, considering short-term trading strategies or long-term holding based on macroeconomic conditions and market dynamics [12]. - Monitoring macroeconomic trends and geopolitical stability in major producing countries is crucial, as these factors can significantly impact platinum supply and prices [13]. - Continuous tracking of industry developments in the automotive and green hydrogen sectors is essential, as shifts in these markets can influence platinum demand and pricing [14].

Group 1 - Platinum prices have surged to nearly a ten-year high, driven by tightening supply and recovering demand, with prices rising from approximately $900 per ounce in early April to about $1,342 per ounce by June 27 [1] - South Africa, which accounts for about 80% of global platinum production, has seen its mining sector benefit significantly from this price increase, leading to strong gains in major mining stocks [1] - Major platinum producers listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange have experienced substantial stock price increases, with Impala Platinum up approximately 87.1% year-to-date, Northam Platinum up about 103.79%, and Sibanye-Stillwater up around 121.23% [1] Group 2 - The current rise in platinum prices is attributed to multiple structural factors, including heavy rainfall in South Africa affecting mining operations and reduced supply due to equipment maintenance at Valterra Platinum [2] - There has been a significant increase in platinum imports to China since April, with active trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, indicating rising demand [2] - The use of platinum group metals (PGM) in automotive catalytic converters is expected to grow as emission standards become stricter, leading to an increased demand for platinum in vehicles [2]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum is experiencing a significant price increase, with international platinum futures surpassing $1280 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 36% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for platinum is driven by its dual role as both an industrial and precious metal, with applications in catalytic converters and various industrial sectors [2]. - The global platinum supply is heavily reliant on South Africa, which accounts for 70% of production. Due to low prices in recent years, mining companies have struggled to invest in new mines or maintain existing ones, leading to a 10% decline in South African platinum output since its peak in 2019 [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council estimates a demand shortfall of approximately 30 tons for this year, which could widen due to increased demand from jewelry and investment sectors [4]. Market Trends - The automotive industry is the largest consumer of platinum, accounting for about 38% of total demand, primarily for use in catalytic converters [5]. - Industrial demand constitutes around 30% of total platinum consumption, driven by its catalytic properties and resistance to corrosion [6]. - Jewelry and investment sectors, which together account for 25% to 35% of total demand, are increasingly contributing to the rising prices. The jewelry market in China, which saw a significant decline in platinum demand in recent years, is now showing signs of recovery, with a 35% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry sales in early 2025 [7][8]. Future Outlook - The current bullish cycle for platinum may last several years, with potential price increases that could surpass historical highs, although periodic price corrections are expected [2]. - Efforts are being made by platinum jewelry companies to innovate and attract new consumer segments, which may further bolster demand [8].