上市企业：豫光金铅（600531），紫金矿业（601899），西部矿业（601168），驰宏锌锗（600497）， 罗平锌电（002114），中金岭南（000060），盛达资源（000603），国城矿业（000688），中色股份 （000758） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铅行业市场运营格局及未来前景分析报告 》 2020-2025年1-8月中国铅产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国铅产量为66.7万吨，同比增长3.7%；2025年1-8月中国铅累计 产量为511.6万吨，累计增长0.9%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead industry showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Upstream lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries were relatively scarce, limiting the smelting capacity of primary and secondary smelters. The continuous losses in secondary lead production led to production cuts in Anhui and other regions. However, downstream consumption was weaker than in previous years, with some battery enterprises reducing production during the high - temperature holidays and dealers having high finished - product inventories, resulting in a lackluster peak season. - Currently, there is a high expectation of a Fed rate cut, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. The marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply provides some support at the lower end. But if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting resumes, lead prices still have significant downward potential. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted Shanghai lead futures oscillated upwards, closing up 1.02% at 16,885 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 28% to 81,900 lots. The LME 3M lead oscillated upwards, closing up 1.37% at $1,997/ton, with positions increasing by 11% to 161,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - $90/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 400 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. The net import of silver concentrates in July was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1.003 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In July, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total production of lead concentrates was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. The net import of lead - containing ores in July was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. - **Total Supply**: In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1.8168 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2.2565 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6%. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. - **Smelting**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2.2064 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51%. [15][17][19] 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2.2516 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37%. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 4.5165 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. [31][33][35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. In July 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 4.4784 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. - **Battery Exports**: In July 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 20.8925 million units, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth in delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries with lithium - iron - phosphate start - up batteries, the high existing vehicle inventory and high replacement demand for lead - acid start - up batteries in existing vehicles support domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries. [40][43][45] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 38,100 tons. - **Overseas Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons. [63][66] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead became net short, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position analysis provides a neutral indication. [71][74][80]