沪铅弱势震荡难改 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示：2026年1月原生铅产量为34.22万吨，环比增加2.86%，同比增加17.92%，略超预期；再生精铅产量为28.2万吨， 环比增加4.82%，同比增加22.3%。受湖南、云南地区部分炼厂进入常规检修，以及春节假期期间部分企业停产放假影响，2月国 内原生铅产量预计环比1月减少约2.35万吨，降幅明显。部分检修企业计划在2月底或3月初恢复生产；再生铅企业多数仍处于休 假状态。安徽地区此前受环保管控限产的企业已有所恢复，但江苏、河南等地因工人返岗、物流紧张及成品滞销等因素，开 ...

沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, influenced by supply constraints and demand dynamics, with expectations of a strong performance in the short term due to pre-holiday stocking and structural demand support [1][2][7]. Supply Constraints - The lead market is facing systemic tightening in supply due to continuous shortages in primary lead and low processing fees, which pressure smelter profits. Seasonal production halts and planned maintenance before the Spring Festival further limit output [3]. - The recycled lead sector is also constrained by difficulties in collecting waste batteries during winter, rising compliance costs, and stricter environmental policies, leading to reduced effective supply [3]. Demand Support - Short-term demand is driven by pre-holiday stocking as downstream distributors increase purchases to ensure sales after the holiday. Long-term demand is supported by traditional replacement needs for automotive starter batteries and rapid growth in the emerging energy storage battery sector [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - In a tight supply-demand balance, profit distribution within the industry chain is shifting towards upstream resource providers, giving mining companies pricing power. Midstream smelting companies face a divided situation, with primary lead firms benefiting from by-product revenues, while recycled lead firms struggle with raw material shortages and high costs [5]. Leading Companies' Strategies - Leading companies are demonstrating strategic resilience by accelerating transitions to high-value areas such as lead-based new materials and resource recycling. They are building closed-loop supply chains to enhance raw material security and stabilize cost fluctuations [6]. Market Activity - The spot market is showing a strong trading atmosphere, characterized by firm pricing and transactions driven by essential demand. Sellers are reluctant to sell due to tight supply expectations, maintaining strong quotes despite limited acceptance of high prices from downstream enterprises [6]. Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, supported by supply constraints and pre-holiday demand. Key variables post-holiday will include the recovery pace of smelting operations and the sustainability of core demand from automotive and energy storage sectors [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a 2026 annual report on lead in the non - ferrous metals sector, dated December 31, 2025, with the title "Regeneration of Lead Supply Contradiction Continues and Lead Price Fluctuates Widely" [4][10][18] Group 2: Fundamental Information Lead Concentrate - Global and domestic lead concentrate production data are presented in multiple figures, including production in thousands of tons and million tons [28][34][39] - Lead concentrate import data such as import volume and import profit and loss are provided [31] - Domestic lead concentrate production and total supply data from 2024 - 2025 are detailed in a table, showing monthly production, year - on - year growth, net import volume, and total supply [91] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are shown, with data in thousands of tons [48][53] - In China, data on electrolytic lead monthly production, smelting start - up rates (both total and by scale) for primary and secondary lead are presented, along with smelting costs and profits [65][67][74] - Refined lead import and export data, including import and export volume and profit and loss, are provided [80][81] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and apparent consumption data are presented [89] Lead Consumption - Data on lead - acid battery production, including monthly and weekly start - up rates, export and import, and inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers, are provided [102][109][112] - Data on automobile, new - energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and export, as well as power project investment and communication base - station construction, are presented, which are related to lead consumption [120][122][130] - Global and domestic lead balance tables are provided, showing data from 2019 - 2026E, including production at the mine and smelting ends, consumption, and balance [144][145] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report includes a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, although the specific content is not provided in the given text [146]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, and demand growth also faces certain resistance. With the expected continued accumulation of inventory, the short - term decline of Shanghai lead has slowed down. Attention should be focused on the 16980 pressure level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME was 2,027 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 87,047 lots, down 8,288 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,809 lots, down 1,331 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, down 1,325 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, down 11.33 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%. The monthly output of recycled lead was 18,300 tons, down 67,500 tons; the weekly output of primary lead was 38,700 tons, up 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 9,898.21 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45.696 million units, down 3.984 million units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,119.32 points, down 49.84 points; the monthly automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Some waste lead - acid battery recycling enterprises in East China reported a continuous decrease in battery scrap volume this week. Affected by the continuous decline in lead prices, some smelters have started to lower their quotes, which has intensified the concerns of some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises. To avoid the risk of continuous price decline of waste lead - acid batteries, recycling enterprises have become more active in shipping, which may accelerate the short - term price loosening of waste lead - acid batteries. On the supply side, the shortage of domestic lead concentrate supply for primary lead continues, and the quotes in the imported ore market are scarce. Some smelters have to purchase low - silver lead ore to maintain production. The subsequent supply of primary lead is expected to have limited growth. For recycled lead, the production willingness of recycled lead enterprises is strong this week. At the current profit level, the output of recycled lead is still expected to increase. Major smelters in Anhui are gradually resuming production and steadily increasing production, and are expected to continue to rise. Production in Henan and Jiangsu is stable, and the operating rate in Inner Mongolia has significantly increased due to tight lead ingot supply and sufficient orders. Currently, the raw material supply is stable and enterprise inventories are abundant, so the overall operating rate is expected to increase again. In addition, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the supply in the hands of recyclers is scarce, and stores generally have a strong sentiment of holding back sales in anticipation of price increases [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In November, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakened, and some manufacturers reduced their monthly production schedules, which restricted the recovery of the operating rate. However, as the impact of early - month production cuts further subsides, the subsequent operating level will continue to recover steadily. Some leading battery enterprises have good order conditions, focus on expanding energy - storage business, and increase the production capacity of lead - carbon cells, which will further increase the demand for lead. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots remains high, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will inhibit demand growth to a certain extent. This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot shortage began to ease. With the resumption of production by smelting enterprises and the increase in imports due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the active start - up of recycled lead, the lead inventory is still expected to accumulate [2]

Core Insights - The global lead market is projected to shift to a supply deficit of 2,500 tons in August 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,800 tons in July 2025 [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the global refined lead supply surplus is estimated at 51,000 tons, contrasting with a supply deficit of 17,000 tons during the same period in the previous year [1] Supply and Demand Data - Global mined lead production in August 2025 is reported at 383.3 thousand tons, slightly up from 381.5 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - Global refined lead production for August 2025 stands at 1,099.7 thousand tons, marginally increasing from 1,096.9 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - Global refined lead consumption in August 2025 is recorded at 1,102.2 thousand tons, up from 1,086.1 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - The refined lead supply-demand balance indicates a shift from a surplus of 10.8 thousand tons in July 2025 to a deficit of 2.5 thousand tons in August 2025 [1]