1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with limited downstream demand boosting the price and high domestic inventory pressuring it. However, the firm price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lead price. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of recycled lead and the progress of recycled lead's inclusion in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months, but the domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production of recycled refined lead in February 2026 was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. After the Spring Festival, the maintenance of primary lead enterprises ended, and the current precious metal prices are still high, so the profits of primary lead smelting enterprises are still considerable, and the production has increased month - on - month. After the Lantern Festival, the losses of recycled lead enterprises expanded, causing the originally expected centralized resumption of production in early March to be postponed to after mid - March. It is expected that the effective production of recycled lead will be concentrated in the second half of the month. If the losses continue, the resumption of production in late March may fall short of expectations, and the tight supply of recycled lead may support the lead price periodically. Currently, after the lead price has fallen, the price of waste batteries is relatively resistant to decline, and recycled lead enterprises are deeply in losses. In addition, the inclusion of recycled lead as a deliverable (implemented on March 17) will increase the deliverable supply in the futures market, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and refined lead is in a state of import profit, so the overseas lead surplus pressure will flow into the domestic market [3] 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - The weekly operating rate of battery enterprises has rebounded to 71.68%. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has entered a comprehensive recovery state. Most production enterprises have basically resumed production, and as the number of workers on the job increases, the output has gradually increased, driving the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises to rise significantly. Currently, the terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is average. The inventory of dealers is relatively high, and the finished - product inventory of battery factories is digested slowly, with relatively large inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, only maintaining long - term order pick - up or replenishing inventory as needed, and there is no concentrated stockpiling market [4] 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week of March 6, the domestic lead spot basis was slightly at a discount, and the weekend lead spot basis was at a discount of 5 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 42.91 US dollars [4] 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week of March 6, the weekly LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons. The LME inventory fluctuated at a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,162 tons to 66,800 tons. As of March 10, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 73,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and it has increased for two consecutive periods, reaching an absolute high level in the past four years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation higher than in previous years. It is expected that under the pressure of high lead inventory, the short - term weak oscillation pattern will remain unchanged. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the lead upstream and downstream and the progress of including recycled lead in the delivery system [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing Fees - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The import volume of lead ore has increased month - on - month for two consecutive months. However, due to the high demand in the domestic winter lead concentrate market, the tight situation of the domestic ore end continues, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates have further declined at low levels. In February, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Supply - In January 2026, the output of primary lead was 342,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 17.92%, slightly exceeding expectations; the output of recycled refined lead was 282,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.82% and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. Affected by the regular maintenance of some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan and the shutdown of some enterprises during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic primary lead output in February is expected to decrease by about 23,500 tons compared with January, with a significant decline. Some maintenance enterprises plan to resume production at the end of February or early March; most recycled lead enterprises are still on holiday. Enterprises previously restricted by environmental protection in Anhui have recovered, but the operating rates in Jiangsu, Henan and other places are still at a low level due to factors such as workers' return to work, logistics tension and unsalable finished products. Before the festival, the weekly finished product inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises increased significantly, and due to the lack of downstream consumption during the Spring Festival, the inventory further accumulated after the festival, suppressing the increase of the operating rate. The centralized resumption of production of recycled lead enterprises will be concentrated in the second week after the festival (early March). After the festival, the price of waste batteries has decreased, but the losses of recycled lead enterprises are still large. The new national standard for recycled lead will be officially implemented on March 1st, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to include recycled lead meeting the new national standard as alternative delivery items. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio fluctuates, and the import of refined lead is in a continuous loss state [3] 3.3 Consumption - This week, enterprises are in the initial stage of resuming work after the festival. Although some enterprises have started equipment debugging and workers' return to work, the overall operating rate has not fully recovered, the procurement demand is light, and most of them are mainly for replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the pre - festival inventory of some enterprises has not been fully digested, resulting in a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market in the first week after the festival. It is expected that downstream enterprises will enter the centralized resumption of production period after the Lantern Festival. Before the festival, the inventory of new batteries was severely overstocked. According to the survey data, the inventory days of finished products of electric vehicle battery enterprises are generally about 25 - 30 days, and some enterprises even exceed 30 days, with relatively large inventory pressure [4] 3.4 Spot - As of the week of February 13th, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 40 yuan. As of February 20th, the London lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.13 US dollars [4] 3.5 Inventory - As of the week of February 20th, the weekly inventory of LME lead increased by 54,475 tons to 287,100 tons. The LME inventory increased significantly and was at an absolute high in the past five years. As of February 13th, the weekly inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8,715 tons to 565,390,000 tons. As of February 24th, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 64,300 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month, being at a relatively high level in the past four years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai lead market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The domestic supply and demand are both weak, with inventory accumulating at a low level. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the holiday situation of secondary lead and downstream enterprises, as well as changes in waste battery costs and domestic inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic winter demand for lead concentrates is high, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at a low level. In February, the domestic monthly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import monthly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee is 200 - 300 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the import weekly processing fee is - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, a weekly decrease of 5 US dollars/dry ton [2]. Supply - In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, higher than expected. The output of secondary refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 66.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. The operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The import window for refined lead remains open, but the import profit has slightly narrowed [3]. Consumption - This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 70.77%, basically unchanged from last week. The electric bicycle battery market is the weakest in consumption, and some enterprises plan to reduce production and advance the Spring Festival holiday. The domestic consumption of the automotive battery market is okay, but export orders are weak. The downstream battery enterprises' enthusiasm for stocking before the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years, and some enterprises plan to take an early holiday, leading to an accumulation of social inventory [4]. Spot - As of the week of January 23, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated between premiums and discounts. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 55 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.56 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week of January 23, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,200 tons, and the inventory was fluctuating at a high level. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons. As of January 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations reached 34,900 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at a relatively low level in the past four years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, influenced by supply constraints and demand dynamics, with expectations of a strong performance in the short term due to pre-holiday stocking and structural demand support [1][2][7]. Supply Constraints - The lead market is facing systemic tightening in supply due to continuous shortages in primary lead and low processing fees, which pressure smelter profits. Seasonal production halts and planned maintenance before the Spring Festival further limit output [3]. - The recycled lead sector is also constrained by difficulties in collecting waste batteries during winter, rising compliance costs, and stricter environmental policies, leading to reduced effective supply [3]. Demand Support - Short-term demand is driven by pre-holiday stocking as downstream distributors increase purchases to ensure sales after the holiday. Long-term demand is supported by traditional replacement needs for automotive starter batteries and rapid growth in the emerging energy storage battery sector [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - In a tight supply-demand balance, profit distribution within the industry chain is shifting towards upstream resource providers, giving mining companies pricing power. Midstream smelting companies face a divided situation, with primary lead firms benefiting from by-product revenues, while recycled lead firms struggle with raw material shortages and high costs [5]. Leading Companies' Strategies - Leading companies are demonstrating strategic resilience by accelerating transitions to high-value areas such as lead-based new materials and resource recycling. They are building closed-loop supply chains to enhance raw material security and stabilize cost fluctuations [6]. Market Activity - The spot market is showing a strong trading atmosphere, characterized by firm pricing and transactions driven by essential demand. Sellers are reluctant to sell due to tight supply expectations, maintaining strong quotes despite limited acceptance of high prices from downstream enterprises [6]. Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, supported by supply constraints and pre-holiday demand. Key variables post-holiday will include the recovery pace of smelting operations and the sustainability of core demand from automotive and energy storage sectors [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a 2026 annual report on lead in the non - ferrous metals sector, dated December 31, 2025, with the title "Regeneration of Lead Supply Contradiction Continues and Lead Price Fluctuates Widely" [4][10][18] Group 2: Fundamental Information Lead Concentrate - Global and domestic lead concentrate production data are presented in multiple figures, including production in thousands of tons and million tons [28][34][39] - Lead concentrate import data such as import volume and import profit and loss are provided [31] - Domestic lead concentrate production and total supply data from 2024 - 2025 are detailed in a table, showing monthly production, year - on - year growth, net import volume, and total supply [91] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are shown, with data in thousands of tons [48][53] - In China, data on electrolytic lead monthly production, smelting start - up rates (both total and by scale) for primary and secondary lead are presented, along with smelting costs and profits [65][67][74] - Refined lead import and export data, including import and export volume and profit and loss, are provided [80][81] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and apparent consumption data are presented [89] Lead Consumption - Data on lead - acid battery production, including monthly and weekly start - up rates, export and import, and inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers, are provided [102][109][112] - Data on automobile, new - energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and export, as well as power project investment and communication base - station construction, are presented, which are related to lead consumption [120][122][130] - Global and domestic lead balance tables are provided, showing data from 2019 - 2026E, including production at the mine and smelting ends, consumption, and balance [144][145] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report includes a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, although the specific content is not provided in the given text [146]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, and demand growth also faces certain resistance. With the expected continued accumulation of inventory, the short - term decline of Shanghai lead has slowed down. Attention should be focused on the 16980 pressure level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME was 2,027 US dollars/ton, down 11.5 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 87,047 lots, down 8,288 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,809 lots, down 1,331 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, down 1,325 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, down 11.33 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%. The monthly output of recycled lead was 18,300 tons, down 67,500 tons; the weekly output of primary lead was 38,700 tons, up 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 9,898.21 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45.696 million units, down 3.984 million units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,119.32 points, down 49.84 points; the monthly automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Some waste lead - acid battery recycling enterprises in East China reported a continuous decrease in battery scrap volume this week. Affected by the continuous decline in lead prices, some smelters have started to lower their quotes, which has intensified the concerns of some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises. To avoid the risk of continuous price decline of waste lead - acid batteries, recycling enterprises have become more active in shipping, which may accelerate the short - term price loosening of waste lead - acid batteries. On the supply side, the shortage of domestic lead concentrate supply for primary lead continues, and the quotes in the imported ore market are scarce. Some smelters have to purchase low - silver lead ore to maintain production. The subsequent supply of primary lead is expected to have limited growth. For recycled lead, the production willingness of recycled lead enterprises is strong this week. At the current profit level, the output of recycled lead is still expected to increase. Major smelters in Anhui are gradually resuming production and steadily increasing production, and are expected to continue to rise. Production in Henan and Jiangsu is stable, and the operating rate in Inner Mongolia has significantly increased due to tight lead ingot supply and sufficient orders. Currently, the raw material supply is stable and enterprise inventories are abundant, so the overall operating rate is expected to increase again. In addition, the supply of waste batteries is still tight, the supply in the hands of recyclers is scarce, and stores generally have a strong sentiment of holding back sales in anticipation of price increases [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In November, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakened, and some manufacturers reduced their monthly production schedules, which restricted the recovery of the operating rate. However, as the impact of early - month production cuts further subsides, the subsequent operating level will continue to recover steadily. Some leading battery enterprises have good order conditions, focus on expanding energy - storage business, and increase the production capacity of lead - carbon cells, which will further increase the demand for lead. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots remains high, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will inhibit demand growth to a certain extent. This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot shortage began to ease. With the resumption of production by smelting enterprises and the increase in imports due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the active start - up of recycled lead, the lead inventory is still expected to accumulate [2]

Core Insights - The global lead market is projected to shift to a supply deficit of 2,500 tons in August 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,800 tons in July 2025 [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the global refined lead supply surplus is estimated at 51,000 tons, contrasting with a supply deficit of 17,000 tons during the same period in the previous year [1] Supply and Demand Data - Global mined lead production in August 2025 is reported at 383.3 thousand tons, slightly up from 381.5 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - Global refined lead production for August 2025 stands at 1,099.7 thousand tons, marginally increasing from 1,096.9 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - Global refined lead consumption in August 2025 is recorded at 1,102.2 thousand tons, up from 1,086.1 thousand tons in July 2025 [1] - The refined lead supply-demand balance indicates a shift from a surplus of 10.8 thousand tons in July 2025 to a deficit of 2.5 thousand tons in August 2025 [1]