1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are supported in the short - term, but the risk of volatility has increased. The domestic and foreign spot basis is differentiated, the refined - scrap spread has narrowed slightly, and global visible inventories have continued to increase, with copper valuation being neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the US dollar index has weakened slightly, the short - term copper concentrate processing fee has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, and the global PMI has risen above the boom - bust line, with short - term drivers being bullish [13]. - The operating ranges of copper prices are as follows: the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 101,500 - 106,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 12,800 - 14,000 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Copper prices have rebounded, and post - holiday market transactions have gradually recovered. The operating rates of copper processing enterprises have generally rebounded, but the rebound amplitude is relatively small. The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed, the operating rate of recycled copper rods remains at a low level, and the substitution of scrap copper is still limited [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level. The processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials is still relatively sufficient. In January 2026, Chile's copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 414,000 tons, reaching a multi - year low [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by 119,000 tons to 392,000 tons compared with before the holiday, the LME inventory has increased by 12,000 tons to 254,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 546,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has increased by 4,000 tons. In the spot market, the spot discount in East China has widened to 235 yuan/ton on Friday; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 49.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have oscillated strongly. The Shanghai copper main contract has risen by 3.53% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.28% to 13,296 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic copper prices have rebounded. Due to the large increase in inventory during the Spring Festival, the basis has weakened. On Friday, the spot discount of copper in East China has widened to 260 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has rebounded slightly, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 49.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly [29]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has rebounded slightly to - 50.4 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [36]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has appreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has weakened [39]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has widened [42]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 88,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly comes from Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu; the number of copper warrants has increased by 93,914 to 290,594 tons compared with last week. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory has decreased; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased slightly [45][48][51]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: According to SMM research data, in January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 1,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain high - year - on - year growth. According to NBS data, in December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The imports of anode copper were 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The imports of refined copper were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The exports of refined copper were 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The profit of domestic spot copper feed - processing exports has recovered after a decline. The imports of recycled copper were 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), home appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, it is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [77]. - **PMI**: In January, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the overall manufacturing prosperity declined slightly. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies has recovered simultaneously [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, but the decline rate slowed down. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in December [85]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In January, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and it is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises remained at a low level, and it is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises rebounded slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises continued to rise in January and is expected to decline slightly in February; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in January, and it is estimated to decline in February. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline slightly in February. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises recovered slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises rebounded [88][91][94][97][100][103]. - **Refined - Scrap Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,689 yuan/ton on Friday [108]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions have increased by 49,338 to 1,156,996 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2603 contract are 152,922 lots (bilateral) [113]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of February 24, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 20.8%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of February 20) [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is bullish, and copper prices are fluctuating at a high level. The short - term supply of copper ore remains tight, and although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, copper prices are strongly supported. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M contract is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: In the new year, spot demand has slightly improved. Downstream buyers make moderate purchases at low prices, but demand is still suppressed by high prices. The initial consumption start - up rate of downstream industries continues to decline. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has widened, increasing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. However, the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production is maintained at a low level due to fiscal and tax policies [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrate continues to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper remains high. There are supply disruptions such as strikes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine and the postponed commissioning of the Mirador copper mine, and Codelco's production is below the expected target. The tight supply situation at the mine end persists [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 789,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 181,000 tons, LME inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 467,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has relatively narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has declined. In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The US raid on Venezuela enhanced the value of strategic resources, causing copper prices to surge. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.23% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 4.05% to 12,965.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [29]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper market shifted to a Contango structure, while the LME copper market maintained a Back structure [32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate declined to - 45.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB depreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has shrunk [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 47,000 tons to 789,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants increased by 29,441 to 111,216 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined [46][49][52]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase slightly month - on - month and maintain a relatively high year - on - year growth. In November 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The imports of anode copper were 58,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. The imports of refined copper were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The imports of recycled copper were 208,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0% [59][62][65][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), and transportation (11%). In China, the main consumption areas are construction (26%), equipment (23%), and infrastructure (17%) [78]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: In November, the year - on - year production of automobiles, freezers, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The domestic real - estate data in November continued to be weak, and the National Real - Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84][86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December and are expected to change accordingly in January. This week, the start - up rates of electrolytic copper rods, wire and cable, and copper strips declined [101][104]. - **Scrap - Refined Price Spread**: The domestic scrap - refined copper price spread widened, reaching 4,401 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 127,796 to 1,363,282 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2601 contract were 47,740 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 6, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 18.1%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 2) [117].