CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 04 供给端 02 期现市场 铜周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面偏暖，铜价高位波动 05 需求端 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求：进入新的一年现货需求略有好转，铜价高位波动背景下下游逢低适量采买，需求仍受高价抑制，下游初端消费开工率继续下滑。国内 精废价差扩大，废铜替代优势提高，再生铜杆开工则受财税政策影响维持低位。 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费继续下滑，粗铜加工费维持高位。消息面上，加拿大Capstone公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿工人持续罢工；米拉多铜 矿投产延期；智利国家铜业产量不及指引预期。矿端紧张格局维持。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存加总78.9万吨，增加4.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加3.5至18.1万吨，LME库存微减0.1至14.1万吨，COMEX库存增加1.3 至46.7万吨。上海保税区库存10.2万吨，增加0.1万吨。现货方面，周五上海地区现货贴水期 ...

环保公司竟因污染环境获罪？12月31日晚间，高能环境（603588）披露的公告提供了这样一个真实的案例。公告显示，高能环境控股子公司重庆耀辉环保 有限公司(以下简称"重庆耀辉")因污染环境罪收到刑事判决书，被判赔偿款和罚金合计近2000万元。 公告称，2024年10月，重庆市相关部门对重庆耀辉进行检查，发现重庆耀辉多处水池、雨水排口重金属含量超标。后经调查发现，重庆耀辉存在将未经处 理的生产废水、初期雨水通过雨水管网非法排入外部环境的情形。2025年5月，重庆耀辉与重庆市生态环境局签订生态环境损害赔偿协议，约定由重庆耀 辉承担生态环境损害赔偿全部责任，重庆耀辉已将应急处置费、鱼类资源损失、沉积物环境损害、司法鉴定费等共计1587.762518万元费用全部支付完 毕。 公司于2025年3月12日披露《高能环境关于控股子公司收到移送审查起诉告知书的公告》，重庆耀辉收到重庆市潼南区公安局发来的《案件移送审查起诉 告知书》，因重庆耀辉污染环境一案，将该案移送至重庆市潼南区人民检察院审查起诉。 12月31日，重庆耀辉收到重庆市渝北区人民法院出具的(2025)渝0112刑初1323号《刑事判决书》。依照《中华人民共和国刑 ...

证券日报网讯12月19日，中金岭南（000060）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年1-6月， 公司矿山企业生产精矿铅锌金属量12.54万吨(其中国内矿山企业生产铅锌矿金属量7.6万吨)；公司冶炼 企业生产铜铅锌产品44.78万吨(其中生产阴极铜24.02万吨，铅锌产品20.76万吨)；白银56吨，黄金34千 克，粗铜1010吨。 ...

Group 1: Mineral Resources and Exploration - As of the end of 2024, the company holds metal resources including 7.13 million tons of zinc, 3.66 million tons of lead, 143,000 tons of copper, 6,607 tons of silver, 90 tons of gold, 92,400 tons of nickel, 717 tons of gallium, 240 tons of germanium, and 16,500 tons of tungsten [1] - The company is a key player in the national copper, lead, and zinc strategic resource sector, with significant mining operations in Asia, including the large-scale Fankou lead-zinc-silver mine [1] - The company has successfully acquired multiple high-quality mining rights in Guangdong Province, enhancing its resource development capabilities [1] Group 2: Production Plans and Output - In 2025, the mining sector plans to produce a total of 25.17 million tons of lead and zinc metals, with specific targets of 7.1 million tons of lead and 18.07 million tons of zinc [2] - The smelting sector aims to achieve a total output of 196.05 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper, including 92.54 million tons of zinc ingots and 31.49 million tons of copper [2] - The company plans to produce 196.05 million tons of industrial sulfuric acid in 2025, with 147 million tons produced by the end of Q3 2025 [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Advantages - The company has established a strategic layout focusing on resource-centric operations and the recycling of rare metals, enhancing its competitive edge in the green mining and deep processing of non-ferrous metals [2] - The integration of upstream and downstream operations in copper smelting is continuously being improved, focusing on the comprehensive recovery and high-purity preparation of rare metals [2] - The company aims to develop high-end, high-value products in the non-ferrous metal new materials sector, thereby increasing internal coherence, risk resistance, and profitability [2]

Group 1: Company Products and Applications - The company primarily produces lead ingots, zinc ingots, zinc alloys, cathode copper, silver, gold, gallium, germanium concentrate, industrial sulfuric acid, and sulfur [1] - Lead is mainly used in lead-acid batteries, lead materials, and lead alloys, while zinc is utilized in galvanizing, die-casting alloys, and batteries [1] - Cathode copper has extensive applications across various industries, including electronics, machinery, construction, and aerospace [1] Group 2: New Materials Sector - The company has entered the high-end new materials sector through internal innovation and acquisitions, with its subsidiary focusing on advanced materials [2] - In 2023, the company acquired a leading domestic enterprise in the hot bimetal sector, enhancing its position in composite metal materials [2] - Production figures for the first half of 2025 include 10,800 tons of battery zinc powder and 1,237 tons of hot bimetals [2] Group 3: Resource and Exploration Activities - The company prioritizes resource strategy and aims to build a globally competitive non-ferrous metal industry chain [3] - It holds significant mining assets, including the large-scale Fankou lead-zinc-silver mine and several others in Guangdong, Australia, and the Dominican Republic [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company has metal resources of 7.13 million tons of zinc, 3.66 million tons of lead, and 6,607 tons of silver [3] Group 4: Sulfuric Acid Production - The company produced 1.47 million tons of industrial sulfuric acid by the end of Q3 2025, with a target of 1.96 million tons for the entire year [4] Group 5: Future Development Strategy - The company emphasizes efficient, green, and intelligent development, proposing a new strategy of "one body and two wings" [5] - The strategy focuses on leading the industry with rich metal resources while developing deep processing of copper, lead, and zinc [5] - The company aims to enhance its production capabilities and contribute to national supply chain security through project construction and capital operations [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with increased positions, spot premium, and weakened basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The supply of refined copper may converge, and downstream demand is temporarily weak. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,600 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,861 dollars/ton, up 88 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 199,582 lots, up 7,190 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 27,472 lots, down 5,300 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,610 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,595 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 31.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 24.88 dollars/ton, up 23.82 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 76,510 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,210 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,990 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons. The cumulative monthly grid infrastructure investment is 482.4 billion yuan, up 44.593 billion yuan. The cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 13.57%, down 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.42%, up 0.03%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.14%, down 0.0053%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, down 0.0271 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month. As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity is 3.75 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiates the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases. In the first three quarters, China's full - industry outward direct investment increased by 4.4%. The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongjin Lingnan announced its main products, which include lead ingots, zinc ingots, zinc alloys, cathode copper, silver, gold, crude copper, gallium, germanium concentrate, industrial sulfuric acid, and sulfur [1] Product Overview - Lead metal is primarily used in lead-acid batteries, lead materials, and lead alloys, with additional applications in lead oxide, lead salts, and cables [1] - Zinc metal is mainly utilized in galvanizing, die-casting alloys, zinc oxide, brass, and batteries [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term spot demand supports copper prices, but the macro - face has a large impact. With the continued selling of US stocks, rising Japanese bond yields, and upcoming important US data, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper stopped falling. The selling of US stocks continued, but the A - share market stopped falling during the day, and market risk - aversion sentiment cooled. The spot price rose 110 to 86,115, and the spot premium rose 15 to 85. The decline of copper prices to 86,000 stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. The LME0 - 3 contango structure expanded to 35, and the domestic spot import loss was around 270. With the narrowing of the import loss, the supply of imported goods is expected to increase [10] Group 5: Industry News - From January to September 2025, the production of major global copper enterprises showed differentiation. BHP's cumulative production in the first three quarters was 1.0509 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; Rio Tinto's copper mine production was 0.5377 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.03%; MMG's production was 0.3455 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.84%. Freeport - McMoRan's production decreased by 8.8% year - on - year, and Glencore's production decreased by 23.54% year - on - year. Most companies maintained their annual production guidance, but Codelco lowered its annual target from 1.34 - 1.37 million tons to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons due to a safety accident [11] - Zhejiang Kefei Technology Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract for the SHOMBERWA 60kt/a copper smelting and chemical project with LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project will process 2 million tons of high - grade copper - cobalt sulfide ore annually, with a planned annual production of 60,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supporting blister copper and sulfuric acid production systems will be built in two phases, ultimately reaching an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of blister copper (Cu98%) and 180,000 tons of industrial sulfuric acid (98% H₂SO₄), with expansion space reserved [11][12] - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of the Grasberg copper - gold mine in Indonesia by July next year. The mine was shut down in September this year due to a fatal accident. It is expected that the total production of copper and gold of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, about 1 billion pounds of copper and 90 ounces of gold, and production is expected to increase from 2026 to 2027 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth for 2025-2027 with expected revenues of $3.632 billion, $4.730 billion, and $4.950 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $480 million, $518 million, and $631 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $35.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $12.3 million, $14.0 million, and $9.3 million for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The company produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SM Minerals through a share subscription, with the funds primarily allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights hold approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 with expected revenues of $36.32 billion, $47.30 billion, and $49.50 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $4.80 billion, $5.18 billion, and $6.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $3.56 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $1.23 billion, $1.40 billion, and $0.93 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The production of copper from the company's own mines was approximately 54,200 tons for crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SMMinerals through a share subscription, with the subscription price mainly allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights owned by SMMinerals have an estimated copper metal reserve of approximately 1.5 million tons, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]