| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,600.00 | +520.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,861.00 | +88.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 199,582.00 | +7190.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -27,472.00 | -5300.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 155,025.00 | -2900.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 110,603.00 | +1196.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 6,625.00 | -2850.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 43,816.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,610.00 | +375.00↑ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongjin Lingnan announced its main products, which include lead ingots, zinc ingots, zinc alloys, cathode copper, silver, gold, crude copper, gallium, germanium concentrate, industrial sulfuric acid, and sulfur [1] Product Overview - Lead metal is primarily used in lead-acid batteries, lead materials, and lead alloys, with additional applications in lead oxide, lead salts, and cables [1] - Zinc metal is mainly utilized in galvanizing, die-casting alloys, zinc oxide, brass, and batteries [1]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 同时，预留 6 万吨/年铜电解精炼及阳极泥贵金属处理与回收的扩建空间。项 目建成后，将推动铜资源梯级利用与高效转化，核心产品包括品位 98%的粗 铜以及符合 GB/T534-2002 一级品标准的 98%浓度工业硫酸，实现冶炼烟气的 资源化回收。后续项目还会陆续投建湿法精炼生产线，生产阴极铜、粗硫酸 镍等产品，并对阳极泥进行资源化处理。 3. 自由港麦克莫伦（Freeport-M ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth for 2025-2027 with expected revenues of $3.632 billion, $4.730 billion, and $4.950 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $480 million, $518 million, and $631 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $35.6 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $12.3 million, $14.0 million, and $9.3 million for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The company produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper remained stable at approximately 63,900 tons [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SM Minerals through a share subscription, with the funds primarily allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights hold approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (01258), projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 with expected revenues of $36.32 billion, $47.30 billion, and $49.50 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.8%, 30.2%, and 4.7% respectively [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is $4.80 billion, $5.18 billion, and $6.31 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 7.7%, and 21.9% respectively [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be $0.12, $0.13, and $0.16, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.7, and 11.2 times [1] Group 2 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $3.56 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.38%, with quarterly profits of approximately $1.23 billion, $1.40 billion, and $0.93 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.57% in Q3 [2] - The production of copper from the company's own mines was approximately 54,200 tons for crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6%, while the production of cathode copper was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable year-on-year [2] - The total copper production from the company's own mines for the first three quarters was approximately 118,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [2] - The company announced in June that it would acquire 10.5% of the issued share capital of SMMinerals through a share subscription, with the subscription price mainly allocated for technical exploration and development of the Bonkara mining project [2] - The Bonkara North mining rights owned by SMMinerals have an estimated copper metal reserve of approximately 1.5 million tons, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares rose over 3%, reaching HKD 14.53 with a trading volume of HKD 136 million, following the announcement of a projected profit increase for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company estimates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately USD 356 million, representing a year-on-year growth of about 13% [1] - The increase in economic indicators is primarily driven by the rise in international copper prices and an increase in cathode copper production and sales [1] Production Metrics - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the company produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cathode copper from its own mines was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) was approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper from its own mines was approximately 54,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The company produced approximately 788,300 tons of sulfuric acid, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, completing 79% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving 75% of the annual production target [1] - The production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of about 90%, completing only 14% of the annual production target [1]

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) by 3.315 million shares on October 24, 2025, marking a 0.56% increase in total holdings [1][2] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 3 days of net reductions totaling 11.876 million shares, while in the last 20 trading days, there were 10 days of net increases totaling 1.0858 million shares [1][2] - As of now, southbound funds hold 594 million shares of China Nonferrous Mining, representing 15.2% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Summary by Category Shareholding Changes - On October 24, 2025, total shares held reached 594 million, with an increase of 3.315 million shares [2] - On October 23, 2025, total shares held were 590 million, with an increase of 3.711 million shares [2] - On October 22, 2025, total shares held were 587 million, with a decrease of 7.842 million shares [2] - On October 21, 2025, total shares held were 594 million, with a decrease of 6.303 million shares [2] - On October 20, 2025, total shares held were 601 million, with a decrease of 4.757 million shares [2] Company Overview - China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. primarily engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of copper and cobalt metals [2] - The company operates two segments: the hydrometallurgy segment, which produces and sells cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide, and the smelting segment, which produces and sells crude copper and anode copper [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) reported a significant increase in production and profits for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising international copper prices and increased sales of cathode copper [1] Production and Operational Performance - The company produced approximately 107,663 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 12%, achieving about 77% of its annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper reached approximately 307,573 tons, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [1] - The subsidiary Zhongse Huaxin Maben achieved a 74% increase in cathode copper production to 24,222 tons, attributed to the utilization of generators and photovoltaic systems [1] - Luala Copper Smelting saw a 28% increase in crude copper production to 112,994 tons, as production systems operated at full capacity [1] Profitability - The company estimates a profit attributable to owners of approximately $356 million, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, primarily due to the rise in international copper prices and increased sales volume of cathode copper [1] Challenges - The Qianbixi hydrometallurgy operation temporarily ceased production due to a tailings pond incident, resulting in an 82% year-on-year decrease in cathode copper production to 755 tons [1] - Ganfeng Mining faced a 39% year-on-year reduction in cobalt hydroxide production to 390 tons, impacted by export restrictions on cobalt products from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) expects to achieve a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $356 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 13% driven by rising international copper prices and increased cathode copper production and sales [1] Production and Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the group produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services), a year-on-year increase of about 12%, achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 63,900 tons of cathode copper, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) reached approximately 307,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, also achieving approximately 77% of the annual production guidance [1] - The group’s own mines produced approximately 54,200 tons of crude copper and anode copper, a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The total production of sulfuric acid was approximately 788,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 2%, achieving approximately 79% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, achieving approximately 75% of the annual production guidance [1] - The total production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 90%, achieving only about 14% of the annual production guidance [1]

Core Insights - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) forecasts a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $356 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 13% driven by rising international copper prices and increased production and sales of cathode copper [1] Production and Sales Summary - The group produced approximately 107,700 tons of cathode copper (including copper product processing services) for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 12% and achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cathode copper from self-owned mines was approximately 63,900 tons, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [1] - The total production of crude copper and anode copper (including copper product processing services) reached approximately 307,600 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7% and also achieving 77% of the annual production target [1] - The production of crude copper and anode copper from self-owned mines was approximately 54,200 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of about 6% [1] - The group produced approximately 788,300 tons of sulfuric acid, which is a year-on-year increase of about 2%, achieving 79% of the annual production target [1] - The production of cobalt hydroxide (containing cobalt) was approximately 676 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 12% and achieving 75% of the annual production target [1] - The production of liquid sulfur dioxide was approximately 1,442 tons, indicating a significant year-on-year decrease of about 90% and achieving only 14% of the annual production target [1]