Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2604 价格上涨 62 元至 6889 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 6735 元/吨（环比+60），山东地区现货价格 6676 元/吨（环比+51）。持仓方面， 多头减少 672 手至 2.11 万手，空头减少 669 手至 2.46 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，2 月国内纯苯产量 185.91 万吨，较上月下降 8.73 万吨，较去年同月 上升 13.85 万吨。 2、库存方面，2026 年 3 月 2 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：30.3 万吨，较 上期库存 30.4 万吨去库 0.1 万吨，环比下降 0.33%；较去年同期库存 14.5 万吨累 库 15.8 万吨，同比上升 108.97%。22 月 23 日-3 月 1 日 ...

GS Flow of Funds: March ⾼盛资⾦流向报告：三⽉ Month-end tends to mark a recalibration in the market having worked through critical flows. In 2026 fashion, investors are already faced with uncertainty and volatility to kick-off March. ⽉末往往标志着市场在处理完关键资⾦流后的重新校准。以典型 的"2026 年⽅式" ，投资者在 3 ⽉伊始便已⾯临不确定性和波 动。 As the S&P failed to rally through the critical 7k level "gamma wall" , investor sentiment and flows lead us to believe the only way up is down from here. The market continues to field walls of worry despite a supportive m ...

铜周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘局势加大波动风险 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求：铜价回升，节后市场成交逐步回暖，铜加工企业开工率普遍回升，但回升幅度相对较小。国内精废价差收窄，再生铜杆开工率仍低位 运行，废铜替代仍偏少。 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅反弹，仍维持低位运行，粗铜加工费环比抬升，冷料供应仍较充足；消息面上，智利国家统计局数据显示，智 利1月铜产量同比下降3%，至41.4万吨，产量处于多年低位。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存加总119.2万吨，环比增加13.2万吨，其中上期所库存较节前增加11.9至39.2万吨，LME库存增加1.2至25.4万吨， COMEX库存增加0.1至54.6万吨。上海保税区库存增加0.4万吨。现货方面，周五华东地区现货贴水扩大至235元/吨；LME市场Cash/3M贴水收 窄至49.5美元/ ...

Strategic positioning focuses on maintaining a debt-free balance sheet with $853 million in cash to allow for rapid opportunistic investments in a volatile environment.The company is executing a 'drip-feed' fleet renewal strategy, selling older Suezmaxes and its only VLCC to capitalize on high asset values while acquiring more modern Aframaxes.Operational outperformance was supported by 99.8% fleet availability and a strategic reduction in free cash flow breakeven levels to approximately $11,300 per day.Str ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have recently declined, with gold futures dropping over 3% to around $4,878.90, a nearly 9% decrease from the historical high of $5,354.80 on January 29 [1] - Silver prices fell 7.2% to $72.33, approximately 37% lower than the peak of $115.50 on January 26 [1] - The recent price drop is attributed to a stronger dollar and ongoing geopolitical negotiations, which have led to a sell-off in the commodity market [1] Group 2 - The demand from Asia, particularly China, has been crucial in driving metal prices higher in recent months, according to Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank [2] - The recent price movements reflect a significant pullback after a strong upward trend driven by regional demand and investor inflows [2] - Despite the current downturn, structural drivers supporting gold, such as central bank purchases and rising government debt, remain intact [2] Group 3 - Silver's recent performance illustrates its typical volatility, with traders actively seeking support and resistance levels [3] - There is speculation that silver may soon test the $70 mark, with potential for buying interest to emerge as the U.S. market reopens [3]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价大幅下挫，其中 WTI 3月合约收盘下跌 1.79 美元至 62.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.77%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 1.88 美元至 67.52 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.71%。SC2604 456.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 24.4 元/ 以 桶，跌幅 5.14%。IEA 在周四发布的最新月度石油市场报告中称， | | | | | 今年全球石油需求增速将比预期更加缓慢，同时预测全球市场将 继续面临大规模的供应过剩，尽管 1 月份的中断削减了供应。受 | | | | 原油 | OPEC+产油国以及非 OPEC+的供应增加推动，2026 年将出现 373 | | 震荡 | | | 万桶/日的供应过剩。这一预测与上月报告预测的 369 万桶/日过剩 | | | | | 相差不大。这一规模的过剩量将战全球需求的 4%左右，并且高于 | | | | | | 其他预测机构的数值。美国总统特朗普表示，伊朗须与美国达成 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market experienced significant selling pressure on February 6, leading to a decline in gold prices and a nearly 14% drop in silver prices, primarily due to a stronger US dollar and heightened risk aversion in financial markets [1][3]. Market Analysis - The precious metals market is undergoing normal adjustments after reaching record highs, with high volatility expected to persist in the short term [1][3]. - Geopolitical factors such as the progress of the Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange agreement, high-level communications between China and the US, and upcoming US-Iran talks are under scrutiny [1][3]. Technical Indicators - The daily and hourly charts indicate that the 5-day and 20-day moving averages have been breached again, suggesting the end of the short-term rebound in gold prices and a potential shift into a medium-term corrective phase [1][3]. - The hourly chart shows downward crossovers in moving averages, indicating the possibility of further short-term declines. Key resistance levels are identified at 4800-4830, with major pressure around the 4980-5000 trendline. Support is expected near the lower range around 4650, with potential further declines to 4600 or even 4400 anticipated [1][3]. Trading Strategy - The main strategy for gold in the near term is to anticipate continued adjustments, but the current high volatility poses challenges for trading. It is advised to select advantageous entry points for participation [1][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance, with the methanol weighted closing at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, but it may be supported by the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - level, geopolitics, and crude oil. It is suggested to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, boosted by the relatively strong port methanol, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance. The methanol weighted closed at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. - Spot: Import apparent demand was weak last week. Port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market tradable volume was high with an upper limit. Affected by the unstable international situation and positive macro - level, the market fluctuated and trended stronger. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with enterprises focusing on reducing inventory by lowering prices before the festival. The price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranged from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2100 - 2130 yuan/ton [14] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260123 - 0129), China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [15] - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The average weekly operating rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased to 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. - Dimethyl Ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The overall capacity utilization rate increased. - Chlorides: The operating rate of methane chlorides was 76.04%, with an increase in overall production and capacity utilization rate. - Formaldehyde: The operating rate was 33.32%, with a decrease in overall capacity utilization rate [18][20] - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. - Ports: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1,472,100 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The inventory accumulation mainly occurred in the East China region [21][25] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit improved slightly but still showed an overall loss. The week - average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The week - average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.00%. The week - average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.02% [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.98%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry will increase slightly. - Dimethyl Ether: The Xinxiang Xinlianxin device is expected to stop production, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decrease. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. - Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. - Chlorides: The domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may continue to rise. - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 401,600 tons, continuing to decline. - Ports: The port methanol inventory is expected to decrease [30][31][33]

Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the potential 100% tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada if a trade agreement is reached with China, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a key point of interest this week, especially amid escalating global geopolitical tensions [1] - A series of important economic data releases this week will provide clearer insights into the global economic situation, which investors are closely monitoring [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the market will pay attention to Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to show improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the German economy [3] - The U.S. is set to release November durable goods orders, with expectations of a significant improvement to 3.7% month-on-month, up from -2.2% [3] Group 3 - On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, with expectations for a slight improvement above 90, reflecting consumer sentiment towards the economy [4] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to remain negative for the 11th consecutive month, but a slight improvement is anticipated, suggesting a gradual recovery in manufacturing [4] Group 4 - On Wednesday, Australia's CPI for December is expected to rise to 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining expectations for potential interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, with most market participants anticipating stability unless trade negotiations with the U.S. falter [6] Group 5 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate, with market participants looking for insights from Chairman Powell's press conference regarding future policy directions [7] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, emphasizing a cautious stance amid geopolitical tensions [7] Group 6 - On Friday, Japan will release December employment data, while Germany and the Eurozone will report January unemployment rates, expected to remain at 6.3% [8] - The Eurozone's Q4 GDP is projected to slow from 1.4% to 1.3% year-on-year, with the ECB noting stronger-than-expected economic resilience driven by domestic demand [8]

Group 1 - The US dollar index stabilized around 98.30 after a 0.5% decline, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming S&P Global PMI data release [1] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3%, indicating a relatively strong economic performance [3] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, lower than the market expectation of 212,000, suggesting a robust labor market [3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations and impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are as high as 95%, indicating a tendency towards easing despite positive economic growth data [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe, along with unclear terms of the US-NATO agreement, add complexity to the geopolitical landscape affecting the dollar [3][4] Group 3 - The potential actions from Europe regarding its substantial US asset holdings could introduce new uncertainties in global capital flows [4] - The stabilization of the dollar index may be temporary, constrained by high rate cut expectations and a complex geopolitical environment [4] - Future attention should be given to PMI data for economic validation and the actual evolution of US-EU relations, as the dollar faces both cyclical and structural challenges [4]