1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted upward trend, green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited operability on the market. Two stars mean holding a long/short position with a clear upward/downward trend and the market is in the process of development. Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities. White stars indicate a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [10]. - For example, propylene, pure benzene, styrene, PTA, short - fiber, methanol are rated ★☆☆; plastic, PVC, caustic soda, urea, glass are rated ★★★; ethylene glycol, bottle - chip are rated ★★★; soda ash is rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy regulations. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts opened high and closed low. There are many planned plant shutdowns, so the supply is expected to decline. Short - term production enterprise shipments have improved, and the demand has also increased [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene main contracts also opened high and closed low. For polyethylene, supply pressure is not large due to more maintenance and less imported goods. Demand from the spring plowing and packaging film industries is stable or increasing. For polypropylene, supply is tightening, but downstream procurement willingness is low [2]. Polyester - Affected by the tense situation between the US and Iran, oil prices have risen, but PX and PTA showed a weak trend. PTA is accumulating inventory, and downstream demand is weak. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - fiber is affected by the Middle East situation, and the terminal recovery is slowing down. Bottle - chip's efficiency is okay, but the price is under pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of the benzene futures has been running strongly. The supply of pure benzene is shrinking, and the inventory is in a seasonal destocking cycle. The benzene - ethylene futures main contract opened high and fluctuated widely. The cost end provides support, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market is expected to remain strong due to reduced imports, increased downstream device operation, and geopolitical factors. The urea market is expected to be stable with minor fluctuations under the influence of policies [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is running weakly. Supply has increased, and exports are expected to be good. Caustic soda has fallen significantly. Supply has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is weakening. Supply is at a high level, and demand is being dragged down. Glass is oscillating. Inventory pressure still exists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance. Dalian palm oil futures have a chance to continue rising after breaking through the 9,700 yuan resistance. CBOT soybean oil's May contract may reach 70 cents. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed fundamental situation. Rapeseed oil has a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures reached an 11 - month high. The US 2026 cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the alleviation of external risks [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is currently weak both in futures and spot. It is in the low - valuation range and is expected to maintain low - level operation in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are supported by limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppressed by grain substitution and policy releases. It will maintain a high - level shock in the range of 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the short - term inventory is not loose. Attention should be paid to the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak pattern. The spot price is expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market may have opportunities for reverse spreads [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 3.13% [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The small - scale inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production decreased by 4.69%, the sales volume decreased by 27.39%, and the industrial inventory increased by 17.03% [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 tons as of March 26 [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.09% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 2.39% [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 5.75% [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2.26% [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the price of live pigs 2607 decreased by 0.53% to 11,250 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, and the sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.93% [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the base difference increased by 28.03% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - laying hen chick price increased by 2.86% to 3.60 yuan/feather, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.98% [14].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Middle - East situation is still uncertain. The copper price declined and then rebounded. In the future, the copper inventory is expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for the copper price from the fundamental perspective. The short - term copper price may continue to test the bottom [1][2]. - The Middle - East situation has eased to some extent, but the risk sentiment in the aluminum market has not reversed. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight, and the improvement of domestic downstream demand is expected to drive the inventory to gradually decline. The fundamentals provide enhanced marginal support for the aluminum price [4][5]. - The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the downstream battery enterprises may conduct strategic buying for hedging. However, due to factors such as high oil prices and the inflow of overseas lead ingots, the lead price has increased long - short contradictions and rising volatility, and there is a possibility of further decline [7][8]. - The zinc price has entered a downward trend. The zinc industry continues to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and geopolitical conflicts [9][10]. - The tin supply is still constrained by the tight raw materials. The demand has marginally improved, but considering geopolitical disturbances and the decline in the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to run weakly [11][12]. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support and limited downward space. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying range - trading strategy [13][14]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. With recent disturbances in the mining end and a tight - balance pattern, the willingness of funds to short has decreased. Attention should be paid to changes in positions, industrial - driving events, and spot premiums [16][17]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains difficult to change. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [19][20]. - The stainless - steel market currently shows weak macro and demand, while the mining end and shipping costs provide strong support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB application approval by the Indonesian government [22][23]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has recovered, and with the improvement of downstream demand and supply - side disturbances, the short - term price still has support [25][26]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.05% to $12,092/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 11,800 to 359,275 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 11,405 to 262,710 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly widened to 75 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong decreased to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term copper price may continue to test the bottom. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.62% to $3,245/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 11,000 to 560,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,451 to 404,811 tons. The three - place inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 428,000 tons. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 140 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals provide enhanced marginal support for the aluminum price. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,600 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,200 - 3,280 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.14% to 16,421 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,891/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,275 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 54,568 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 283,350 tons [7]. - **Strategy Views**: The lead price has increased long - short contradictions and rising volatility, and there is a possibility of further decline [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.77% to 22,977 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S zinc rose 31 to $3,075/ton. The SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,860 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 99,824 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 117,100 tons. The national main - market zinc ingot social inventory on March 23 was 219,500 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from March 19 [9]. - **Strategy Views**: The zinc price has entered a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and geopolitical conflicts [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 347,970 yuan/ton, up 5.99%. The SHFE inventory was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons, and the LME inventory was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons. As of March 20, the national main - market tin ingot social inventory was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The tin price is expected to run weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 47,000 dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 133,480 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The cost of nickel ore was unchanged, and the price of nickel iron slightly declined [13]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, it has strong bottom support. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying range - trading strategy. The operating range of the SHFE nickel this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 16,000 - 20,000 dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 149,451 yuan, up 3.52%. The LC2605 contract closed at 152,940 yuan, up 2.62%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the alumina index fell 2.39% to 3,031 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 15 yuan/ton to 2,735 yuan/ton. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $310/ton, and the import profit was 38 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 406,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The ore price is expected to rise in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,290 yuan/ton on Tuesday, up 1.82%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory declined [22]. - **Strategy Views**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The operating range of the main contract is 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2604 contract closed up 0.27% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased, and the imported ADC12 price remained stable [25]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term price still has support [26].

Core Insights - Geopolitical disruptions are benefiting companies with diversified operations, such as Bunge, which has a strong presence in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Europe, allowing it to capitalize on market dislocations that competitors with less diversification cannot [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth - The acquisition of Viterra for $10.6 billion, completed on July 2, 2025, has nearly tripled Bunge's Grain Merchandising volumes to 26,194 thousand metric tons in Q4 2025 [2] - Bunge aims to grow its earnings per share (EPS) to at least $15 by 2030, indicating a long-term growth strategy focused on earnings expansion [2] - Bunge's adjusted EBIT from Softseed Processing surged to $209 million in Q4 2025, a significant increase from $75 million in the same quarter the previous year [4][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand Drivers - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed renewable volume obligations for 2026 that will significantly increase biofuels blending requirements, creating structural demand that supports oilseed crush margins and Bunge's profitability [4][6] - Current WTI crude oil prices are around $64.51 per barrel, and the mandated blending requirements provide a safety net for oilseed crush margins against crude oil price volatility [3] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets - Bunge's stock has seen a remarkable increase of 36.41% year-to-date and 70.06% over the past year, with an average price target from analysts at $132.10 [5] - JPMorgan has raised its price target for Bunge to $134 from $130 while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [5][7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Requirements for Growth - To achieve the $134 price target, Bunge needs to continue expanding oilseed margins, successfully integrate Viterra to capture synergies, and maintain favorable geopolitical conditions that support global grain and oilseed flows [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polypropylene, plastic, pure benzene, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are rated as ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC is rated as ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda ash and glass do not have clear star ratings in the report Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by factors such as the Middle East situation, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships. Different chemical products show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed higher. Crude oil and propylene futures prices increased, supporting market sentiment. The cost pressure on downstream products eased, and production enterprises were less willing to offer discounts. The trading atmosphere improved slightly [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene closed higher. High - fluctuating oil prices boosted market sentiment. For polyethylene, domestic supply decreased due to more maintenance, and overall supply pressure eased. Demand from the northern spring plowing and packaging film factories was stable but enterprises mainly consumed inventory. For polypropylene, supply was expected to shrink, but high raw material prices restricted downstream purchasing [2] Polyester - Affected by the Middle East situation, PX and PTA prices were strong but faced intraday fluctuations. There was mid - term negative feedback pressure. Ethylene glycol prices rose due to cost and supply factors but also had downstream negative feedback. Short - fiber followed raw material fluctuations, and bottle - chip had opportunities for positive spreads and processing margin repair [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The main contract of pure benzene futures continued to be strong, but market sentiment cooled. Domestic pure benzene production and imports were expected to decrease, and short - term cost support was obvious. The main contract of styrene futures closed higher, but the spot market showed weakness [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures market was strong. Import arrivals in coastal areas decreased, and the East China port inventory declined. Domestic production decreased, and demand recovered. The urea market was generally strong. Supply was high, and agricultural demand support weakened, but compound fertilizer enterprises increased their loads [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a strong trend. Overall supply decreased, industry inventory was under pressure, and downstream开工 increased seasonally. The export market was expected to improve. Caustic soda prices fell from high levels. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, and export inquiries were good. The national chlorine - alkali load decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fell from high levels. Industry inventory decreased slightly but was still under pressure. Supply remained high, and downstream demand was stable or increasing. Glass prices fell. Mid - and upstream inventory was high, and downstream demand improvement was limited. The market was expected to show wide - range fluctuations [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Options: Hold off for now [5] - Supply side: As of the week of March 13, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75%; the weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons. Affected by the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level. Most refineries' production raw materials were affected to varying degrees. Sinopec's main refineries in Shandong stopped producing and selling asphalt, major local refineries reduced production and limited shipments, and most other local refineries also maintained low production or stopped production [5]. - Demand side: As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工率 of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工率 of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week. The asphalt shipment volume was at a low level year-on-year, and the seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt was lower than the same period last year. The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end, weak demand, and a wait-and-see attitude among middle and downstream players led to few transactions, and refineries and traders were reluctant to sell [5]. - Inventory side: Asphalt refineries slightly reduced their inventories by 2.7 tons, while social inventories continued to accumulate significantly by 11.13 tons [5]. - Unilateral: Driven by the cost side, the absolute price of asphalt strengthened, but due to weak demand, its performance was worse than that of crude oil, and its valuation declined significantly. With high uncertainty on the cost side, asphalt prices mainly fluctuated accordingly [5]. - Cross-variety arbitrage: Hold off for now [5] - Spot-futures and inter-period arbitrage: The risk-free arbitrage of BU2603 - 2604 can be held until maturity [5] Summary by Directory Supply Perspective - Domestic asphalt开工率 and weekly output are at a historically low level year-on-year. Multiple refineries have stopped production, including Shengxing Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Ningbo Keyuan, Fujian United, and Yunnan Petrochemical [6][7]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 6.51 percentage points week-on-week to 24.75% [9]. - The weekly asphalt output decreased by 10.39 tons week-on-week to 37.94 tons [20]. - There are numerous asphalt plant maintenance plans across different regions and enterprises, affecting asphalt production capacity and production schedules [23][24]. Demand Perspective - The rapid rise in crude oil prices at the cost end has led to weak demand. Middle and downstream players are waiting and watching, resulting in few transactions. Refineries and traders are reluctant to sell. Different regions have different market situations, such as in Shandong, North China, East China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Southwest China [26]. - The asphalt shipment volume is at a low level year-on-year. The seasonal recovery of the开工 rates of road and waterproofing modified asphalt is lower than the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt shipment volume was 17.61 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons week-on-week; the开工 rate of road modified asphalt was 9%, an increase of 1 percentage point week-on-week; the开工 rate of waterproofing membrane asphalt was 33%, an increase of 3 percentage points week-on-week [27]. - In the next ten days, strong cold air will affect areas north of the Yangtze River, and there will be more rainy days in the eastern part of Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, which may further affect asphalt demand [29]. Inventory Perspective - Refineries' asphalt inventories slightly decreased. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 90.4 (-2.7) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [35]. - Social inventories continued to accumulate significantly. As of the week of March 13, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 205.94 (+11.13) tons, with different inventory changes in various regions [43]. Basis Perspective - The basis is moderately high driven by geopolitical factors [59]. Spread Perspective - Hold off on spread arbitrage for now [72]. Profit Perspective - The asphalt production gross profit has declined significantly. As of the week of March 13, the asphalt gross profit was -265 yuan/ton (-193), the asphalt production cost was 4022 yuan/ton (+643), and the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory was 80 tons (-5). The high valuation of asphalt continued to decline significantly to a low level under the influence of the Iranian geopolitical situation [86]. - The asphalt crack spread has declined from a high level to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [87]. Warehouse Receipt Perspective - Warehouse receipts increased slightly [101]. - The virtual-to-real ratio is moderately low [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after Carbon Four | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/06 | 5,145 | 4,981 | 4,940 | 770 | 791 | 570 | 5,150 | 7,800 | - 908 | - 220 | | 2026/03/09 | 5,920 | 5,973 | 7,310 | 860 | 954 | 593 | 7,350 | 10,500 | - 819 | 304 | | 2026/03/10 | 6,140 | 6,378 | 6,420 | 860 | 761 | 580 | 6,860 | 9,500 | - 562 | 868 | | 2026/03/11 | 6,120 | 6,378 | 5,030 | 865 | 791 | 575 | 6,000 | 9,000 | - 626 | - 217 | | 2026/03/12 | 6,110 | 6,264 | 5,230 | 935 | - | 578 | 5,420 | 8,500 | - 1,172 | - 211 | | Day - to - Day Change | - 10 | - 114 | 200 | 70 | - | 3 | - 580 | - 500 | - 546 | 6 | [1] Day - to - Day Viewpoint - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market has shown significant fluctuations. The LPG futures price has increased, while the spot price has largely given back the gains of the previous two days. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, the import profit has dropped to a deep negative value, and the 4 - 5 month spread may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - **Prices**: From March 5 - 11, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, showed various changes. For example, on March 5, South China LPG was 5160, and on March 11, it was 6120. Propane CIF daily prices also fluctuated. The paper - import profit and the main basis also changed daily [1] - **Futures**: On March 11, the PG2604 contract closed at 5447 (+175) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 159 (+7). The number of warehouse receipts was 3108 (-2268). At night, it closed at 5624 (+290), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 174 (+15) [1] - **Spot**: The spot price significantly gave back the gains of the previous two days. Shandong's civil LPG mainstream price was 5005 - 7000, down 500 - 1400, and the transaction was active after the price drop. The propane DES price at Longkou Port was 923 (-5). The East China market maintained stable prices, with the mainstream transaction price at 6100 - 6700 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data - **Market Trends**: The futures price rose significantly last week, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then increased, with the latest at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4652 (-2027) [1] - **Related Indicators**: The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH spot profit increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then increased. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5pct). The production and sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3pct), the external supply was 56.2 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7pct) [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week after the holiday, downstream demand recovered slowly, and supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental pattern was weak. The impact of the supply interruption in the Middle East may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short term under the sign of rising geopolitical tensions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the loose fundamentals are exerting pressure. However, there is short - term support from geopolitical factors and Two Sessions policies. It is expected that the futures prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate widely [2]. - For coking coal, on the supply side, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the operation of coal washing plants continues to increase. On the demand side, the operation of downstream coking enterprises has declined slightly, the coking coal inventory continues to decline, and the coke inventory continues to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive [2]. - For coke, on the supply side, the operating load of coking enterprises has been reduced, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive. On the demand side, affected by production restrictions, the operation of steel mills and the molten iron output have declined [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1144.50 yuan/ton, up 23.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract is 1718.00 yuan/ton, up 37.50 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The JM futures contract holding volume is 593327.00 lots, down 15322.00 lots; the J futures contract holding volume is 41180.00 lots, down 438.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts is - 82084.00 lots, down 13916.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts is - 3587.00 lots, up 1156.00 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The JM 9 - 5 month contract spread is 103.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the J 9 - 5 month contract spread is 75.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The coking coal warehouse receipts are 600.00 pieces, up 300.00 pieces; the coke warehouse receipts are 1310.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1043.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 yuan; the price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) is 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1640.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1387.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The JM main contract basis is 160.50 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan; the J main contract basis is - 53.00 yuan/ton, down 37.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 19.90 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 288.50 million tons, down 10.40 million tons. The monthly raw coal output is 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of coal and lignite is 3094.27 million tons, down 2765.73 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 182.90 million tons, up 31.30 million tons [2]. - **Inventory in Ports and Enterprises**: The weekly inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports is 485.74 million tons, down 8.70 million tons; the weekly total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 796.15 million tons, down 33.31 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 18 ports is 270.71 million tons, up 9.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 63.20 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 775.64 million tons, down 16.82 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 671.26 million tons, down 3.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Availability Days and Import/Export**: The weekly available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.41 days, down 0.24 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 12.53 days, up 0.12 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal is 1376.98 million tons, up 303.87 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke is 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Production Capacity Utilization**: The monthly total supply of coking coal is 5478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 72.29%, down 0.54%; the weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is 17.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the monthly coke output is 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 77.71%, down 2.51%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.32%, down 2.13%; the monthly crude steel output is 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the production capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plant samples this week is 31.0%, a 4.4% increase from the previous week; the daily output of clean coal is 23.1 million tons, a 3.2 - million - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory is 313.6 million tons, a 25.1 - million - ton increase from the previous week [2]. - Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on the 10th local time that Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran and will coordinate with the United States at an appropriate time to decide when to end the military operation against Iran. He did not give a specific timetable for the current military operation and emphasized that Israel will continue the military operation until it and its partners think it is "suitable to stop" [2]. - U.S. President Trump said on the 10th local time that it is possible to negotiate with Iran under certain conditions. Three informed sources revealed that the Trump administration has asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This is said to be the first obvious restraint on Israel's military operation by the United States since the joint U.S. - Israeli military operation against Iran began [2].