新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 矿端干扰与宏观因素共振 铜价维持偏强格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-09，沪铜主力合约开于 84610元/吨，收于 86750元/吨，较前一交易日收盘4.38%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 87400元/吨，收于 86650 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.12%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货价格区间为85400-86080元/吨，均价升水15元/吨，较前一日小幅上升。期铜早 盘自84800元/吨持续走强，最高触及85980元/吨，单日涨幅超3000元。市场呈Contango结构，进口亏损扩大至千元 以上。铜价快速上涨抑制下游采购，早间平水铜报价虽高但迅速下调，仅少数优质铜品牌有成交。上海地区采购 情绪偏弱，江苏等地成交价逐步回落至贴水60-70元/吨。目前上海库存未见累积，进口及国产货源仍在途中，预计 周末将逐步到货。临近交割，Contango结构下现货贴水空间预计有限。 重要资讯汇总： 当地时间10月9日，美国共和党提出的结束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数，法案未获通过；美国 总统特朗普表示，鉴于美国国会在 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,750.00 | +3640.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,864.00 | +195.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -70.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 221,715.00 | +7856.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -6,648.00 | +1387.00↑ LME铜 ...

由于美国联邦政府停摆，非农等重要数据被迫延迟发布，但是民间就业数据ADP就业人口意外下降，暗 示劳动力市场继续转弱，市场对于美联储年内继续降息两次的押注增加。 （文华综合） 上月底全球第二大铜矿Grasberg遭遇不可抗力，随后公布的全球最大生产国智利8月铜产量环比同比都 有明显下滑，加剧了投资者对于供应端的担忧。新湖期货表示，中期来看，自由港印尼矿山事故导致减 产的量级和时间均大幅超出市场预期，从今年四季度到明年减产约47万吨，将扭转全球的供需平衡，26 年全球铜供需将进入紧平衡。 沪铜早间高开高走，收盘主力2511合约大涨4.19%，期价刷新近十六个月高位。海外流动性宽松预期仍 存，铜市供应端担忧笼罩，铜价重心大幅上移，但需观察下游接受程度。 10月9日国内市场电解铜现货库存16.79万吨，较29日增1.12万吨。其中上海市场节假期间到货相对有 限，国产货源到货入库不多，加之进口铜清关流入同样较少，库存因此下降；广东、江苏市场节假期间 冶炼厂发货增加，同时下游提货较少，库存亦有所回升。不过节后铜价大幅上涨，且现货仍维持升水状 态，仍需警惕下游对高价的接受程度和后续库存变化情况。 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 沪铜日评20250929: 矿端偏紧但需求趋弱使铜价震荡 | 变重名称 2025-09-18 绞昨日变动 2025-09-26 | | 2025-09-25 | | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 82470 | 82710 | 79620 | -240.00 | | | 成交車(手) 90514 -160, 268. 00 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 174625 | 334893 | | | | | 持仓量(手) | 229050 | 23853 | 127860 | -9. 473.00 | | | 库存(吨) | 26557 | 27662 | 32469 | -1.105.00 | | | 沪铜县差 | 15 | -205 | 370 | 220.00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 82485 | 82505 | 79990 | -20.00 | | | SMM半水铜开贴水一半均价 | -40 | -10 | 30 | -30. 0 ...

Group 1 - The core incident involves an accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, specifically in the PB1C production block, where approximately 800,000 tons of wet material surged into the mine, leading to operational suspension and infrastructure damage [1] - As of September 24, the accident resulted in 2 confirmed deaths and 5 missing persons, with ongoing search and recovery efforts, as well as an investigation into the incident [1] - According to Huatai Securities, since 2025, there has been a frequency of disturbances in copper mines, with most disturbances being short-term and having limited supply impact; however, the Grasberg mine's supply reduction is expected to significantly affect the market [1] Group 2 - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been fluctuating, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the market [1] - The Grasberg mine is projected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons by Q4 2025, which may assist in depleting electrolytic copper inventories [1] - For 2026, it is estimated that the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines could reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, leading to a significant improvement in the copper supply-demand balance [1] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the expansion of AI-related infrastructure will drive copper demand, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment [1] - The price of gold is expected to have a certain drag effect on copper prices, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices [1]

2025 年 9 月 7 日 行业研究 美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，黄铜棒 8 月开工率创近 6 年同期新低 ——铜行业周报（20250901-20250905） 要点 本周小结：美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，供需边际向好，铜价有望 2025Q4 走 强。截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 80140 元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日+0.92%； LME 铜收盘价 9898 美元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日-0.05%。（1）宏观：美国 8 月非 农就业数据不及预期，市场预计 9 月降息概率升至 100%，美元指数偏弱。（2） 供需：此前美国铜关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐 步结束。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，8 月电解铜产量环比微降，随着电网、空 调需求 Q4 环比回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+10.6%，LME 铜库存环比-0.6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 68.8 万吨，环比上周 -3.1%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 9 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.25~8.29） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡上涨，沪铜主力合约下上涨0.91%，收报于79410元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 美国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费将进入旺季季，目前来看下游消费意愿一 般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存158900吨，上周 变化不大，上期所铜库存较上周减1950吨至79748吨。 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were still global instability factors. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared with last week [4]. - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons [4]. 2. Fundamentals 2.1 PMI - No detailed content provided [10] 2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. 2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][16][19]. 3. Market Structure 3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees were at a low level [22]. 3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Spread - No detailed content provided [27] 3.4 Import Profit - No detailed content provided [30] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No detailed content provided

Report Summary Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals show mixed signals, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises' production cuts and loosened scrap copper policy, July PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4 ppts from last month), neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79280, basis is 330, at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with an increase in long positions, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Slowdown of Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a fluctuating adjustment of copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and potential trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of bullish or bearish impact is detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, and on August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].