CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 04 供给端 02 期现市场 铜周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面偏暖，铜价高位波动 05 需求端 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求：进入新的一年现货需求略有好转，铜价高位波动背景下下游逢低适量采买，需求仍受高价抑制，下游初端消费开工率继续下滑。国内 精废价差扩大，废铜替代优势提高，再生铜杆开工则受财税政策影响维持低位。 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费继续下滑，粗铜加工费维持高位。消息面上，加拿大Capstone公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿工人持续罢工；米拉多铜 矿投产延期；智利国家铜业产量不及指引预期。矿端紧张格局维持。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存加总78.9万吨，增加4.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加3.5至18.1万吨，LME库存微减0.1至14.1万吨，COMEX库存增加1.3 至46.7万吨。上海保税区库存10.2万吨，增加0.1万吨。现货方面，周五上海地区现货贴水期 ...

研究报告 铜周报 近期沪铜连续刷新历史新高 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | | 年 报告日期：2025 | 12 | 月 | 29 | 日星期一 | 摘要： 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 美联储在今年最后一次议息会议后发布的利率路径点阵图显 示，2026 年仅有 1 次降息，幅度在 25 个基点。但是分析师普遍 认为美联储 2026 年或降息 2-3 次。高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行、 富国银行、野村、巴克莱等机构预计，2026 年美联储降息 2 次， 政策利率将降至 3.00%-3.25%。其中，野村表示，明年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper is likely to continue its strong performance in the future due to the siphoning effect of US stockpiling, a planned 10% joint production cut by domestic copper smelters in 2026 to address tight copper ore supply, stable demand, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, the LME copper price adjusted at a high level. On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the Shanghai copper price slightly adjusted. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. Micro-positive news needs to be realized, and the copper price is adjusting at a high level [1] - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a premium of 90 - 220 yuan/ton to the December futures contract. The procurement sentiment in the spot market was average, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. The limited supply of holders, combined with the backwardation structure of the futures spread, supported the firm increase in the spot premium [1] - Today, the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets rebounded, with 3,465 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3,354 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - After the domestic market closed, LME copper inventory increased slightly by 750 tons to 162,150 tons, while the canceled warrants increased significantly by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, further confirming the siphoning effect of US copper demand [2] - The inventory data reveals the distortion of the global copper trade flow, which is the most direct pressure driving up copper prices in non - US regions. There is a "high in the US, low elsewhere" pattern, with US COMEX copper inventory as high as 418,700 short tons (about 380,000 metric tons), accounting for most of the world's exchange - visible inventory. In contrast, LME inventory is only 162,150 tons, and SHFE inventory has dropped to 97,900 tons, with China's social inventory at a relatively low level of 173,500 tons [2] - The core reason for this extreme differentiation is the market's expectation of US import tariffs on copper. Traders have transferred a large amount of inventory to the US in advance to avoid risks. As a result, a region accounting for only about 7% of global copper consumption has hoarded more than half of the world's visible inventory, leading to a sharp compression of deliverable inventory in non - US consumption regions, especially Asia, which has directly translated into "soft squeeze" pressure on the futures market and high spot premiums, driving up the prices of Shanghai and London copper [3] 3. Copper Futures Contract Quotes - The report provides detailed quotes of SHFE copper futures contracts from December 2025 to November 2026, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, reference settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, and positions/position changes [9]

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The copper price hit a new record high again and is expected to run strongly with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, and the November China Manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement but is still in the contraction range, considered neutral [2]. Basis - The spot price is 92150, and the basis is -820, at a discount to the futures, considered bearish [2]. Inventory - On December 8, copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9025 tons to 88905 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2]. Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered bullish [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, considered bearish [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. Other Situations - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices above $11,000 per ton is unsustainable due to sufficient global copper supply, predicting prices will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of approximately 500,000 tons in the copper market for 2025, primarily due to weak demand in some Asian countries in Q4, with the surplus narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026, indicating a gradual market balance [5]. - The recent rise in copper prices is driven by market expectations of future supply tightness rather than current demand or inventory changes, with speculative positions nearing historical highs [4][6]. - Despite concerns over low inventory levels outside the U.S., Goldman Sachs believes the severity of this issue is overstated, suggesting that regional inventory tightness can be alleviated through market mechanisms [6]. Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average LME copper price in the first half of 2026 to $10,710 per ton, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, which are expected to support prices [5][7]. - The firm anticipates a slight price correction in the second half of 2026 following the implementation of tariffs, despite short-term price increases driven by tariff expectations and inventory movements [5][7]. - Long-term projections indicate that copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035, reflecting structural demand growth and resource constraints [7]. Investment Outlook - Copper is still viewed as the "preferred" industrial metal by Goldman Sachs, driven by investments in global energy infrastructure and strategic sectors like AI and defense [3][7]. - Investors are encouraged to take long positions in December 2027 LME copper contracts, with a solid price floor at $10,000 per ton expected [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global copper supply and demand are expected to shift from surplus to shortage by 2026, leading to a potential increase in copper prices, with average prices and peaks likely to exceed $11,000 and $12,000 per ton respectively [1][2] Group 2 - On the supply side, extreme weather events, human-induced disasters, and escalating geopolitical factors are anticipated to significantly disrupt global copper production, with 2025's production forecast being revised down to a year-on-year increase of only 12,000 tons, compared to a previous estimate of 141,000 tons [1] - The report predicts that if disruptive events continue, the copper supply increment for 2026 will remain limited, despite high copper prices potentially stimulating rapid growth in recycled copper production [1] Group 3 - On the demand side, the electricity sector is identified as a key driver for copper demand growth in 2026, with projected global demand increment and growth rate of 770,000 tons and 2.97% respectively [2] - The overall expectation is that the combination of global economic recovery, rising inflation, and widespread fiscal and monetary easing will contribute to the continued increase in copper prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to experience price fluctuations in 2025, with a projected average price of $9,704 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, and is anticipated to break historical highs by the end of the year [2] - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with China accounting for 58% of global consumption in 2024, and a steady growth rate of 2% CAGR from 2016 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply side is characterized by a gradual increase in C1 costs and a tight mining situation, with copper concentrate production growth lagging behind refined copper production growth [4] Group 2 - In 2026, the copper market is projected to be in a tight balance, with a supply gap of 50,000 tons, and both supply and demand expected to grow by 3% year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates that the copper price will continue to rise, reaching a central price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 due to tightening supply and sustained demand [5] - The report highlights that the sentiment in the market may react more strongly than the actual fundamental performance, indicating a potential disconnect between market perception and reality [3]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown, the short - term liquidity problem in the market is solved, and the market risk preference increases. There is still uncertainty about the Fed rate cut in December. The FedWatch tool shows that the cumulative rate cut by the end of 2026 is only 80 basis points. Fundamentally, the copper mine supply remains tight, but with the increase in scrap copper and the partial resumption of smelters, copper production shows an increasing trend. The demand side is in the transition from peak to off - peak season, and some emerging industries provide continuous demand. Due to the game between tight supply at the mine end and weakening demand, copper is expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range. Attention should be paid to the economic data released after the US government resumes work and the change in the probability of rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis Macro - On November 12 local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the US government shutdown. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 16.7% [3]. Supply - In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a total crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected impact on production of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October have gradually resumed production, and with the increase in copper prices, the production enthusiasm has increased, and output is expected to rise. Scrap copper supply has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [3]. Demand - With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted. Traditional industries have seen demand pre - empted due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing and is currently higher than the same period last year. As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [3]. 3.2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper oscillated and rose. The weekly high was 87,920 yuan/ton, the low was 85,750 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.53%, and the range increase was 1.12% [5]. 3.3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of November 17, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was 10 yuan/ton. Sellers tried to maintain high prices, but downstream buyers were less willing to accept high prices, putting pressure on the premium [10]. 3.4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of November 14, LME copper rose 0.99% during the week, closing at $10,850/ton, mainly due to the end of the US government shutdown and the increase in market risk preference [14]. 3.5. Copper Concentrate Supply - Customs data on November 14 showed that the copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The inventory continued to recover but was still lower than the same period last year, and the tight supply of raw materials at the mine end had not improved. SMM expects the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 to be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [19]. 3.6. Scrap Copper Supply - From January to September 2025, China imported 1.4496 million metal tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. After the increase in copper prices, scrap copper supply increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. Some regions may resume government support for recycled copper rod enterprises, but the implementation details are yet to be determined after next week's tax payment [25]. 3.7. Smelter Fees - As of November 14, China's spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. In the 2026 long - term contract negotiation, there was a "zero - processing - fee" situation (Antofagasta locked 50% of the ore volume with Chinese smelters at $0/dry ton), and the market expects the remaining 50% of the ore volume to have a negative price [29]. 3.8. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's estimated electrolytic copper production in China was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons. The estimated production in November is 1.0876 million tons, a further month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, but with the resumption of some enterprises and the increase in production enthusiasm, output is expected to rise. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters was 85.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper was 63.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [33]. 3.9. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%. With the increase in the copper price center, downstream consumption is restricted, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is generally poor [38]. 3.10. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons or 11.29%. Last week, the orders in the refined copper rod market decreased week - on - week due to the increase in copper prices and weak downstream demand. The trading of copper strips weakened, and downstream procurement was cautious. The copper tube market was dragged down by the low operating rate of the air - conditioning industry. The copper foil market was relatively active due to the high production schedule of downstream battery factories [43]. 3.11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; the installed wind power capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the national average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, a decrease of 251 hours compared with the same period last year [47]. 3.12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% [54]. 3.13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales. In addition, new energy vehicle exports exceeded 2 million for the first time. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [58]. 3.14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges LME - As of November 14, LME copper inventory decreased by 175 tons to 135,700 tons. Although there was inventory accumulation, it was still significantly lower than the same period last year [63]. COMEX - As of November 14, COMEX copper inventory was 381,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23% and a year - on - year increase of 328%. The US continued to hoard copper, causing an imbalance in the global copper inventory supply [63]. Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas - This week, the cumulative spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. Some smelter export goods arrived and were stored in the warehouse this week, and inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [68]. Shanghai Futures Exchange - As of November 14, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% and higher than the same period last year [3][68].