Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing labor strike at Chile's Manto Verde mine has resulted in a significant reduction in copper production, maintaining only 30% of normal output during the strike, with no progress in negotiations [3][9] - High copper prices have led to a seasonal accumulation of copper inventories, with total stocks reaching elevated levels, while demand has been delayed due to the high prices and the onset of the off-season [4][10] Short-term Fundamental Changes - Recent increases in copper prices and rising sulfuric acid prices have helped to offset smelter profits, leading to an unexpected rise in domestic copper production [4][10] - The high copper prices have caused a significant decline in the operating rates of copper rod enterprises, resulting in a rapid accumulation of social copper inventories [4][10] - It is anticipated that the high copper prices will lead to delayed demand rather than a complete disappearance, with long-term consumption remaining robust [4][10] Medium to Long-term Core Logic - The macroeconomic narrative is improving, with potential downward risks in U.S. employment and manageable inflation, allowing for speculation on future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10] - The U.S. continues to stockpile copper as a strategic metal, exacerbating the supply-demand balance globally, while domestic copper production is being stimulated through profit incentives for smelters [5][10] - Copper mine supply remains tight, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts, indicating that supply constraints will persist into next year [5][10] - A consensus among Chinese copper smelting enterprises to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 is seen as a strategic move to ensure the industry's healthy development [5][10] Market Outlook - The arrival of the off-season and delayed demand have led to a rapid accumulation of copper inventories, posing a risk of short-term price declines [6][11] - The medium to long-term supply-demand outlook remains positive, with recommendations to observe the market until copper prices decline and inventories are consumed before re-entering long positions [6][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the copper market, discussing supply-demand dynamics, price forecasts, and key companies in the industry [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Despite reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, copper prices have not been significantly affected, with global refined copper supply remaining tight [1][2]. - There has been an unexpected accumulation of copper inventories in China since December 2025, although downstream orders remain stable [2][3]. - The increase in refined copper imports to the U.S. has led to a convergence of the CL price spread, influenced by tariff expectations [1][2]. Price Forecasts - The expected price range for copper in 2026 is between 94,000 to 120,000 RMB/ton for Shanghai copper and 12,000 to 15,000 USD/ton for LME copper [1][4]. - The first quarter typically shows weaker performance, but prices may strengthen post-Chinese New Year due to seasonal demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper concentrate production is expected to increase by approximately 600,000 tons in 2026, but actual increases may only be around 400,000 tons due to supply disruptions [3][12]. - The global smelting capacity is projected to grow at 2.3%, with an anticipated shortage of about 1.5 million tons in 2026 [3][12]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping to a six-year low [14]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Zangge Mining, along with smaller firms like Western Mining and Hebei Steel Resources [1][5]. Inventory and Import Trends - As of December 2022, U.S. COMEX copper inventories were over 500,000 tons, with weekly imports around 20,000 tons [8]. - The high inventory levels are expected to continue, despite a potential decrease in import volumes in the coming weeks [8]. Impact of Strikes and Delays - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile experienced a strike with limited impact, while the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has delayed its second phase, which could significantly affect global supply if not resolved [9][10][11]. Long-term Demand and Supply Outlook - Long-term demand growth is expected to be around 4%, driven by emerging sectors like data centers and AI, despite short-term fluctuations [22]. - The domestic market in China is projected to see a surplus of about 300,000 tons in 2026, influenced by production increases and export adjustments [20]. Waste Copper Market - The waste copper market is expected to remain strong, with a significant increase in supply due to higher recycling rates and imports [23][24]. - Policy changes regarding waste copper could significantly impact supply dynamics [25]. Market Positioning and Strategy - Current high inventory levels suggest potential for increased price volatility, advising caution in trading strategies [26]. - High prices are exerting pressure on downstream industries, leading to reduced procurement and lower operating rates [27]. Seasonal Demand Expectations - Post-Chinese New Year demand is contingent on price stability; if prices remain manageable, a recovery in demand is anticipated [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is bullish, and copper prices are fluctuating at a high level. The short - term supply of copper ore remains tight, and although high copper prices continue to suppress consumption and there is still pressure on domestic inventory accumulation, copper prices are strongly supported. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M contract is expected to be between 12,400 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: In the new year, spot demand has slightly improved. Downstream buyers make moderate purchases at low prices, but demand is still suppressed by high prices. The initial consumption start - up rate of downstream industries continues to decline. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread has widened, increasing the substitution advantage of scrap copper. However, the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production is maintained at a low level due to fiscal and tax policies [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrate continues to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper remains high. There are supply disruptions such as strikes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine and the postponed commissioning of the Mirador copper mine, and Codelco's production is below the expected target. The tight supply situation at the mine end persists [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 789,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 181,000 tons, LME inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 467,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has relatively narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has declined. In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 3.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The US raid on Venezuela enhanced the value of strategic resources, causing copper prices to surge. The main SHFE copper contract rose 3.23% week - on - week, and LME copper rose 4.05% to 12,965.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, the spot copper in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 41.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, domestic electrolytic copper spot imports remained in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [29]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper market shifted to a Contango structure, while the LME copper market maintained a Back structure [32]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate declined to - 45.4 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB depreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has shrunk [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 47,000 tons to 789,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, and the number of copper warrants increased by 29,441 to 111,216 tons. LME inventory decreased, with the decrease coming from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined [46][49][52]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase slightly month - on - month and maintain a relatively high year - on - year growth. In November 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [56]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The imports of anode copper were 58,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. The imports of refined copper were 305,000 tons, with a net import of 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 58.2%. The imports of recycled copper were 208,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0% [59][62][65][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), and transportation (11%). In China, the main consumption areas are construction (26%), equipment (23%), and infrastructure (17%) [78]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: In November, the year - on - year production of automobiles, freezers, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year production of automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The domestic real - estate data in November continued to be weak, and the National Real - Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84][86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December and are expected to change accordingly in January. This week, the start - up rates of electrolytic copper rods, wire and cable, and copper strips declined [101][104]. - **Scrap - Refined Price Spread**: The domestic scrap - refined copper price spread widened, reaching 4,401 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 127,796 to 1,363,282 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2601 contract were 47,740 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 6, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 18.1%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 2) [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 93,390 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 99,730 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From December 25th to 26th, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized ten key tasks for 2026, including cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect 2 rate cuts, with the policy rate dropping to 3.00% - 3.25%. [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Electrolytic Copper Production - As of November 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of December 25, 2025, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 44 dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 cents/pound. [16] 3.3.2 Copper Product Production - As of November 2025, monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 111,703 tons, an increase of 15,898 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, 2025, LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 29.34%. [26] 3.4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was 96,500 tons (a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week), the Guangdong area inventory was 23,900 tons, and the Wuxi area inventory was 40,100 tons. [26] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Global refined copper supply and demand are basically balanced. Electrolytic copper production is growing rapidly month - on - month and still has a high year - on - year growth. Chinese copper smelter processing fees are slightly decreasing. The price difference between refined and scrap copper is expanding rapidly. Copper product production remains at a high level. Shanghai copper inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly. [35] 3.6 Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bullish sentiment for copper has cooled, but the support remains strong. Although the copper valuation is relatively neutral, considering the Fed's interest - rate cut and the positive policy tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference, the overall sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the pressure of refined copper surplus is not significant. It is expected that the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and the prices may gradually turn into a volatile trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 90,000 - 94,500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is expected to be 11,200 - 12,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has declined, while the processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month. The supply of scrap materials is relatively loose. As of the end of November, the Kuth Copper refinery under India's Adani Group is facing a serious raw material shortage crisis, with the actual arrival of copper concentrate less than 10% of the demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE has slightly increased by 500 tons to 89,000 tons, the inventory of LME has increased by 1,000 tons to 166,000 tons, and the inventory of COMEX has increased by 10,000 tons to 405,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The spot in Shanghai, China on Friday was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper has slightly widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 4.907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.67% [11]. - **Demand**: Due to the high copper prices, the spot market trading has been sluggish. The refined copper rod enterprises have strictly controlled the production rhythm, and the operating rate has declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has first narrowed and then widened, the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased, and the operating rate of downstream scrap copper rod enterprises has rebounded from a low level [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have risen and then fallen. The SHFE copper main contract has increased by 1.40% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has decreased by 2.37% to 11,552.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The domestic copper prices have strengthened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has risen, and the Cash/3M has remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 20.7 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import of domestic electrolytic copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium has remained stable [25]. - **Structure**: The Back structure of SHFE copper has shrunk, while the LME copper has maintained the Back structure [28] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrate has declined to - 43.08 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China has continued to rise, which still has a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [33]. - **Imports and Exports Ratio**: The spot import loss of copper has slightly widened [38]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 661,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 101,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in SHFE inventory comes from Jiangsu and Guangdong, while the inventory in Shanghai has decreased. The number of copper warrants has increased by 1,102 to 32,563 tons. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses and a decrease in European inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has risen [41][44][47] 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In November 2025, China's refined copper production has increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to increase significantly in December. In October 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.70% [51]. - **Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.526 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, and the net imports were 257,000 tons. The proportion of imports from Russia, Chile, Australia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Morocco has increased, while the proportion of imports from Myanmar, Japan, etc. has decreased. In October, China's exports of refined copper were 66,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month - on - month. The import of recycled copper in October was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [54][57][63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power sector (46%), followed by household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), etc. In China, the consumption is mainly in equipment (32%) and construction (26%) [72] - **Downstream Industry Output**: In October, the output of freezers among copper downstream industries has increased year - on - year, while the output of refrigerators, air conditioners, automobiles, color TVs, AC motors, and power generation equipment has decreased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output of automobiles, color TVs, and AC motors has increased year - on - year, while the cumulative output of freezers, power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators has decreased [78] - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In November, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to slightly decline in December; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in December. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to slightly improve in December; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased better than expected, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to continue to rise in December; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises has increased, and it is expected to slightly strengthen in December. The operating rate of copper plate and strip enterprises has rebounded, and it is expected to increase in December; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise in December. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises has declined, while the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has rebounded [83][86][89][92][95] - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap price difference has narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference was reported at 4,797 yuan/ton on Friday [102] 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper has decreased by 13,496 to 1,293,826 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2512 contract is 10,820 lots (bilateral) [107] - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of November 10, the CFTC fund position has maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.6%. The proportion of net long positions of LME investment funds has slightly increased (as of December 5) [110]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper is likely to continue its strong performance in the future due to the siphoning effect of US stockpiling, a planned 10% joint production cut by domestic copper smelters in 2026 to address tight copper ore supply, stable demand, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, the LME copper price adjusted at a high level. On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the Shanghai copper price slightly adjusted. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. Micro-positive news needs to be realized, and the copper price is adjusting at a high level [1] - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a premium of 90 - 220 yuan/ton to the December futures contract. The procurement sentiment in the spot market was average, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. The limited supply of holders, combined with the backwardation structure of the futures spread, supported the firm increase in the spot premium [1] - Today, the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets rebounded, with 3,465 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3,354 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - After the domestic market closed, LME copper inventory increased slightly by 750 tons to 162,150 tons, while the canceled warrants increased significantly by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, further confirming the siphoning effect of US copper demand [2] - The inventory data reveals the distortion of the global copper trade flow, which is the most direct pressure driving up copper prices in non - US regions. There is a "high in the US, low elsewhere" pattern, with US COMEX copper inventory as high as 418,700 short tons (about 380,000 metric tons), accounting for most of the world's exchange - visible inventory. In contrast, LME inventory is only 162,150 tons, and SHFE inventory has dropped to 97,900 tons, with China's social inventory at a relatively low level of 173,500 tons [2] - The core reason for this extreme differentiation is the market's expectation of US import tariffs on copper. Traders have transferred a large amount of inventory to the US in advance to avoid risks. As a result, a region accounting for only about 7% of global copper consumption has hoarded more than half of the world's visible inventory, leading to a sharp compression of deliverable inventory in non - US consumption regions, especially Asia, which has directly translated into "soft squeeze" pressure on the futures market and high spot premiums, driving up the prices of Shanghai and London copper [3] 3. Copper Futures Contract Quotes - The report provides detailed quotes of SHFE copper futures contracts from December 2025 to November 2026, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, reference settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, and positions/position changes [9]

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The copper price hit a new record high again and is expected to run strongly with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, and the November China Manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement but is still in the contraction range, considered neutral [2]. Basis - The spot price is 92150, and the basis is -820, at a discount to the futures, considered bearish [2]. Inventory - On December 8, copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9025 tons to 88905 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2]. Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered bullish [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, considered bearish [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. Other Situations - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent surge in copper prices above $11,000 per ton is unsustainable due to sufficient global copper supply, predicting prices will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of approximately 500,000 tons in the copper market for 2025, primarily due to weak demand in some Asian countries in Q4, with the surplus narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026, indicating a gradual market balance [5]. - The recent rise in copper prices is driven by market expectations of future supply tightness rather than current demand or inventory changes, with speculative positions nearing historical highs [4][6]. - Despite concerns over low inventory levels outside the U.S., Goldman Sachs believes the severity of this issue is overstated, suggesting that regional inventory tightness can be alleviated through market mechanisms [6]. Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average LME copper price in the first half of 2026 to $10,710 per ton, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, which are expected to support prices [5][7]. - The firm anticipates a slight price correction in the second half of 2026 following the implementation of tariffs, despite short-term price increases driven by tariff expectations and inventory movements [5][7]. - Long-term projections indicate that copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035, reflecting structural demand growth and resource constraints [7]. Investment Outlook - Copper is still viewed as the "preferred" industrial metal by Goldman Sachs, driven by investments in global energy infrastructure and strategic sectors like AI and defense [3][7]. - Investors are encouraged to take long positions in December 2027 LME copper contracts, with a solid price floor at $10,000 per ton expected [7].