沪铜周报（8.18~8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡下跌，沪铜主力合约下跌0.47%，收报于78690元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155975吨，上周变化不 大，上期所铜库存较上周减4663吨至81698吨。 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...

Report Summary Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals show mixed signals, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises' production cuts and loosened scrap copper policy, July PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4 ppts from last month), neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79280, basis is 330, at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with an increase in long positions, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Slowdown of Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a fluctuating adjustment of copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and potential trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of bullish or bearish impact is detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, and on August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is tight, while it will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were many global uncertainties. Domestic consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific data or analysis provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand of copper is in tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific data or analysis provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No specific data or analysis provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific data or analysis provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, with the main contract rising 1.27% to close at 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues disturbed copper prices, and global uncertainties remained high. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.27% to 79,250 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and US tariff factors affected copper prices, and domestic consumption entered the off - season. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons [4]. b. Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific content provided. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 128,475 tons with a slight increase last week, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][15][19]. c. Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises' operating rate declined, and the tight supply situation in the spot market has eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases, and the trading volume was average. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year to 47 - 52.5 tons, with the average value 2 - 3 tons lower than the previous target [12]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, including the Politburo meeting in China, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. Industrially, the tight supply of copper raw materials remains, but due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, the upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises declined, and the tight supply in the spot market eased. The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate increased slightly, the processing fee of blister copper remained flat month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials was marginally stable. Teck Resources cut its copper production target for this year [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 0.2 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday, and the LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper expanded slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [12]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis of the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated weakly, the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, and the global visible inventory increased. The valuation of copper was neutral to bearish. The increase in copper concentrate processing fees had a neutral impact on copper prices, while the weakening of the US dollar index and the recovery of the global manufacturing PMI were bullish drivers. There were several major macro - events this week, and if the US copper tariffs are strictly enforced, they will put pressure on SHFE copper and LME copper. The upward movement of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of SHFE copper rose 1.07% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper rose 0.02% to 9796 dollars/ton [24]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper showed certain changes. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 79,580 yuan on July 25, 2025 [26]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price rose first and then fell, and the basis quotation declined with the increase in supply. The spot in East China was at a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures on Friday. The LME inventory continued to increase, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import had a small loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) increased [29]. - **Structure**: The contango structure of SHFE copper's near - month contracts expanded slightly, and the contango structure of LME copper contracted slightly [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee (TC) of imported copper concentrate increased slightly to - 42.6 dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: No specific content provided. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import loss of copper expanded slightly [42]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges was 42.7 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons month - on - month. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, the inventory of LME increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and the inventory of COMEX increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area was 7.1 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons month - on - month. The decrease in SHFE inventory came from Jiangsu and Guangdong, and the inventory in Shanghai increased slightly. The number of copper warrants decreased by 22106 to 16133 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased [45][48][51]. 4. Supply Side - **Monthly Output of Electrolytic Copper**: According to SMM's survey data, China's refined copper output declined slightly in June 2025, and it is expected to increase again in July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the domestic refined copper output in June 2025 was 130.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 736.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [56]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports were 235 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 1475.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 46.4 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 263.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The imports of anode copper in June were 6.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 38.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The refined copper imports in June were 33.7 tons, and the net imports were 25.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 188.6 tons, and the net imports were 158.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. The exports of refined copper in June were 7.9 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons month - on - month. The imports of recycled copper in June were 18.3 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative imports were 114.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both rebounded in June, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI returning above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved steadily [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the year - on - year output growth was seen in industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, refrigerators, AC motors, and power generation equipment. The output of power generation equipment continued to grow at a high rate, while the output of color TVs decreased year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year output growth was seen in power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors, while the cumulative output of color TVs and freezers decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: The domestic real estate data remained weak from January to June. New construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreased year - on - year. The decline in sales and construction areas widened, while the decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in June [87]. - **Downstream Enterprises' Operating Rate**: The operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises declined in June and is expected to continue to decline in July. The operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises rebounded in June and is expected to decline in July. The operating rates of other downstream enterprises such as enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, and brass rod enterprises also showed different trends of decline or increase in June and corresponding expectations for July [90][93][96][99]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper increased by 22396 to 1021138 lots (bilateral), and the position of the near - month 2508 contract was 179194 lots (bilateral) [106]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, but the net long ratio declined to 13.5%. The increase in short - positions was slightly greater than that in long - positions. The proportion of long - positions of LME investment funds declined (as of July 18) [109].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The core drivers include the domestic smelting increment on the supply side offsetting overseas mine - end disturbances, the continuous fermentation of off - season pressure and high - price suppression effects on the demand side, and the poor macro - sentiment due to the US non - farm payroll data exceeding expectations and suppressing interest - rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 4, the SHFE main contract price dropped 0.81% to 80,030 yuan/ton, and the LME three - month copper price fell to 9,951.5 dollars/ton. The discount of flat - water copper remained at 80 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis fell to 87.61 dollars/ton. The LME open interest slightly shrank to 282,135 lots, and the domestic SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons within the week [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply Side**: In June, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China dropped to 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively, limiting short - term overseas mine - end increments. China's electrolytic copper production in the first half of the year increased 11.4% year - on - year [2] - **Demand Side**: The off - season effect deepened. In the first week of July, the operating rate of refined copper rods turned negative year - on - year, the operating rate of cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, and the household appliance production plan decreased 2.6% year - on - year. Only the power sector's demand was relatively stable, but it could not offset the overall weak consumption [2] - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons within the week, the COMEX inventory increased 3.7% to 220,954 short tons, and the domestic SHFE inventory continuously increased to 95,275 tons, but the total inventory was still at a year - on - year low [2] - **Market Summary**: The copper market may maintain a high - level, volatile and weakening pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 4, the SMM 1 copper price was 80,580 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day. The SHFE price was 80,030 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the LME price was 9,852 dollars/ton, down 1.00%. The discount of wet - process copper narrowed, and the LME (0 - 3) basis increased 8.83% [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The LME inventory decreased 7.45% to 22,307 tons, the SHFE inventory increased 1.01% to 95,275 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 220,954 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On July 5, Chile's copper and copper ore exports to China in June decreased. EroCopper's Tucuma copper project in Brazil achieved commercial production, but analysts were skeptical about its annual production target [6] - On July 4, due to the off - season and high copper prices, the operating rates of refined copper rod and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased. Except for the power sector, other industries' demand was generally suppressed by high copper prices [6][7] - On July 3, the second rotary anode furnace of the fire - smelting system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous metal recycled copper resource recycling base project produced the first furnace of anode copper, marking the full completion of the project [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][9][13]

Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with copper prices expected to mainly fluctuate. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is neutral, the disk is bullish, the main positions are bearish, and there are uncertainties such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 79,935, with a basis of 65, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: On June 30, copper inventories decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,550 tons compared to last week [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, and geopolitical disturbances, copper prices will mainly fluctuate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Logic: There are domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Spot - No specific data analysis provided, only the format of spot price, inventory type, and quantity is given [6]. Exchange Inventory - No specific analysis provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. Processing Fees - Processing fees are falling [16]. CFTC - No specific content provided, only the topic is mentioned [18]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been liberalized, and the manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis is bullish with the spot price at 78,715 and a basis of 705, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories are neutral, with a decrease of 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons on June 13, and a decrease of 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons at the SHFE compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is neutral as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - The main positions are bearish as the main net position is short and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the increasing uncertainty of US trade tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions is a mix of neutral, bullish, and bearish factors, leading to an expected fluctuating price trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information on spot includes the location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details such as type, total quantity, and increase or decrease, but specific numerical values are not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventories at the SHFE decreased by 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons compared to last week, and on June 13, the overall copper inventory decreased by 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons [2]. 保税区Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry. - The basis shows a premium for the spot price over the futures price, which is bullish. - Copper inventories decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week, presenting a neutral situation. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish. - With the Fed slowing down interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, and increased uncertainty in US trade tariffs, copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamental analysis: The manufacturing industry is in a recovery trend, smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy is relaxed, resulting in a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 79,040 with a basis of 430, indicating a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Copper inventory decreased on June 12, while SHFE inventory increased last week, a neutral situation [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, bullish [2]. - Main positions: Net short positions with an increase in shorts, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will mainly fluctuate due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut slowdown, high - level inventory destocking, and US trade tariff uncertainty [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, with no clear indication of specific bullish or bearish factors [3]. Spot No specific data analysis provided, only the form of spot price, price change, and inventory information is shown [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory decreased by 2600 tons to 116,850 tons on June 12, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1613 tons to 107,404 tons last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].