新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 市场分析 2025年6月30日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63460元/吨，收于62260元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.77%。当 日成交量为389727手，持仓量为330824手，较前一交易日减少10624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳960 元/吨。所有合约总持仓596987手，较前一交易日减少18035手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日降低296883手，成 交量494672，整体投机度为0.83。当日碳酸锂仓单22628手，较上个交易日增加630手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月30日电池级碳酸锂报价6.05-6.21万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.92-6.02万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、 下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部 分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，受期货盘面影响，现货也有所走强，但基本面并未改善。 策略 反弹后套保意愿较高，碳酸锂盘面走弱 跨品种：无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate remains weak. With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures market has declined and returned to the fundamental level [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On June 12, 2025, the main contract 2507 of lithium carbonate opened at 61,400 yuan/ton and closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, a 1.56% drop from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 169,708 lots, and the open interest was 162,882 lots, a decrease of 15,353 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 578,788 lots, an increase of 15,808 lots. The total trading volume of the contracts decreased by 84,329 lots to 372,443 lots, and the overall speculation degree was 0.64. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 32,383 lots, a decrease of 454 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 12, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,100 - 61,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,550 - 59,550 yuan/ton, also an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Overseas mines are holding prices firm, with SC6 quoted at CIF $635/ton or higher. Downstream demand is weak due to sufficient inventory and pessimistic expectations for future lithium salt prices [1]. Inventory and Production - The latest weekly inventory increased slightly by 1,117 tons to 133,500 tons, mainly due to an increase in upstream inventory. The weekly production also increased slightly by 6,561 tons to 18,100 tons, with production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increasing [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell - hedge on rallies. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Spot - futures: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of oversupply, with weak cost support due to falling lithium ore prices. Despite some recent strengthening in downstream purchasing willingness on the futures market, the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The report recommends short - selling strategies under the current market conditions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2507 opened at 61,800 yuan/ton and closed at 61,180 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 224,064 lots, and the open interest was 335,807 lots, an increase of 7,066 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 566,765 lots, a decrease of 16,660 lots, and the total trading volume decreased by 112,494 lots. The overall speculation degree was 0.5, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 60 lots to 36,684 lots [1]. - According to SMM data, on May 19, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 - 65,100 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,650 - 63,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate is oscillating downward. The falling lithium ore prices have weakened cost support, and with no mine production cuts, the supply is strong. Given limited downstream demand growth, the oversupply situation is hard to change [1]. Strategy - With falling spot prices, declining ore prices, and average consumption growth, and a large number of warehouse receipts registered, the lithium price is hitting new lows under weak macro and fundamental conditions. It is necessary to monitor downstream purchasing volume. - Unilateral strategy: Sell - hedging on price rallies. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [2].