Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upside potential of Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels around 255,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 278,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, mainly due to the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year, but also the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the rising weekly operating capacity of domestic refined tin. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The negative spread of LME tin (0 - 3) and positive spread of (3 - 15) are within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years, mainly due to the Trump administration's re-imposition of tariffs on many countries, but also the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year and the decrease in LME refined tin inventory compared to last week. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities for the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of 40 - 50 mines in Wa State, Myanmar will resume production after paying fees on July 11 (the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines), and Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo-Kinshasa on April 9, which may lead to a month-on-month increase in the production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in August [21]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [17]. - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in August may increase month-on-month [22]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Jiangxi and Yunnan has increased (remained flat) compared to last week, and the production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in August has increased (increased) month-on-month [28]. - Due to the impact of a corruption investigation on the approval of mining licenses by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and the possible reduction of medium - to long - term export quotas, and the plan of Indonesian state - owned tin mining company PT Timah to increase tin production and sales in 2025, the export volume in August may increase month-on-month. The continued loss in imports and exports may lead to a month-on-month decrease in the import (export) volume of Chinese refined tin in August [32]. Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tin solder in August may decrease month-on-month, and the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strip has decreased month-on-month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in August [33][35]. - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strip in August may decrease (increase) month-on-month [37]. - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tinplate in August may increase (decrease, increase) month-on-month [43]. Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese refined tin has decreased compared to last week [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of Chinese tin ingots has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week; the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared to last week [13]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) is negative and the spread of (3 - 15) is positive, both within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10].

南华锡周报 2025年8月1日 锡：小幅回落，震荡为主 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 【核心逻辑】锡价在周中小幅下跌，符合预期，因为宏观对其影响有限。供给端，缅甸锡矿开采证已经基本 审核完毕，预计最早将在8月下旬开始正式复工。这将是对锡基本面影响最大的因素，不过不太会对短期供需 产生影响。另外，若缅甸复工再度不及预期，不排除此前的利空因素转为短期利多。展望未来一周，锡价或 仍然以震荡为主，供给端的话题仍有炒作空间。 【南华观点】震荡为主，周运行区间26.1万-26.8万元每吨。 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 周涨跌 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡主力 | 元/吨 | 264950 | -2930 | -1.09% | | 沪锡连一 | 元/吨 | 264950 | -2930 | -1.09% | | 沪锡连三 | 元/吨 | 265220 | -2740 | -1.02% | | 伦锡3M | 美元/吨 | 33215 | -925 | -2.71% | | 沪 ...