| | | 沪锡产业日报 2026-02-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 414180 | -1980 4月-5月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -600 | -220 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 53915 | 3615 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 12801 | -5545 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -7318 | -514 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7680 | 25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 11014 | 2264 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 11556 | -182 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 414900 | 13400 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 415360 | 11310 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差 ...

证券日报网讯 2月13日，宝钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司作为中国最大的现代化钢铁 联合企业，主营业务聚焦于高端钢铁产品的研发、生产与销售，核心产品包括汽车板、家电板、电工 钢、镀锡板、能源及管线用钢等高技术含量、高附加值板材，广泛应用于汽车制造、家电、船舶、石油 化工及基础设施建设等领域。宝钢股份在成为中国市场主要钢材供应商的同时，产品出口海外四十多个 国家和地区。 （编辑 袁冠琳） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly tin, is driven by various factors including supply constraints and rising demand in emerging sectors [2][3][15] Industry Overview - Tin prices have seen a significant increase, with London tin prices rising over 6% to exceed $52,000, breaking the 2022 high, while Shanghai tin reached a limit-up, surpassing the 400,000 yuan mark [2][10] - The tin industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (tin mining and selection), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (various applications) [2][11] - Major tin-producing countries include China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with China being highly dependent on tin imports [10][11] Fundamental Analysis - Global macroeconomic expectations are warming, leading to increased market risk appetite, which benefits the precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [3][15] - Supply-side growth is weak due to delays in Myanmar's production recovery, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which raise expectations of production cuts [3][15] - Demand in traditional sectors is slowing, while emerging sectors such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence show strong demand, particularly for soldering materials [3][15] - Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over resource supply stability, further increasing the strategic premium of tin [3][15] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Tin prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to potential market sentiment shifts caused by macroeconomic and geopolitical changes [4][12] - The 400,000 yuan mark is seen as a critical support level for tin prices [4][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - The resumption progress of the mining end does not meet expectations, processing fees remain low, terminal demand shows a trend of traditional weakness while new energy is relatively strong. Combined with the emotional support from AI and computing power, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong pattern. Enterprises in need of buying hedging are advised to buy in batches and on dips between RMB 286,000/ton and RMB 310,000/ton [7] 3. Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data Mining End - In December 2025, the trading mainlines of the mining end revolved around "the resumption rhythm of Wa State in Myanmar" and "the easing of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo". The beneficiation plants in Wa State only maintained an operating rate of 30 - 40%. The import volume of Wa State before mid - December was only 3,800 tons, a 12% decrease compared with the same period in November. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, although the land transportation of tin concentrates in the Kivu region resumed, the actual arrival volume was limited due to port congestion in South Africa. The processing fees for tin concentrates in China remained at a low level, and the profits of smelters were compressed. In late December, Wa State announced full resumption of production on January 5, 2026, and it is expected that the domestic concentrate arrival volume in January 2026 will increase by 15 - 20% month - on - month, with processing fees expected to rise slightly [1] Domestic Refined Tin Production and Import and Export - In December, the national refined tin production was expected to be 14,200 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase but a 5.7% year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of large - scale smelters in Yunnan increased, while the recycled tin production in Jiangxi decreased. The import and export windows remained closed. In January, with the increase in the ore volume from Wa State and a slight repair of processing fees, the national output may increase by 5% month - on - month to 14,900 tons, and the overall supply will maintain a pattern of "low imports + stable domestic production" [2] Processing End - In December, the tin processing sector showed the characteristic of passive inventory accumulation due to high prices suppressing demand. The processing fees for solder bars remained flat, but the order volume declined. The shipment volume of lead - free solder paste decreased, and only the high - silver solder paste for photovoltaic ribbons maintained a 3% increase. The demand for tin - plated sheets decreased, and the social inventory of tinplate reached an 18 - month high. In January, the demand for processing products is expected to decrease by 8 - 10%, but the demand for photovoltaic ribbons is expected to increase by 5%, and the processing fees will probably remain stable [3] Terminal End - In December, the traditional terminal consumption was cold, while the new energy sector showed a positive trend. In the consumer electronics field, the shipment volume of mobile phones decreased, and the inventory days of TWS earphones and laptops increased. The export of home appliances decreased, while the photovoltaic sector was the only bright spot. The AI server maintained high - level prosperity, and the demand for high - order solder paste increased. The overall tin consumption in the automotive sector increased slightly. In January, the traditional electronic and home appliance orders are expected to decline, but the new energy sector may bring some incremental demand [4] Inventory - In December 2025, the SHFE tin ingot inventory first increased and then decreased, with a net increase of 1,071 tons for the whole month. The social inventory increased by 17%. The LME Asian warehouses continued to destock. In January, the domestic smelter shipment rhythm will slow down, and the SHFE inventory is expected to fall to around 7,500 tons. If the incremental supply from Wa State arrives at the port smoothly, the LME Asian warehouses may restock, and the overall global visible inventory is still at a low level, providing bottom support for tin prices [5][6] Strategy Unilateral - Cautiously bullish. Enterprises in need of buying hedging are advised to buy in batches and on dips between RMB 286,000/ton and RMB 310,000/ton [7] Arbitrage - On hold Options - Sell put options Tin Variety Basis Situation - In December, the basis of mainstream brands against the futures main contract rose from par to a premium of RMB 400/ton, with increased volatility. The premium of Yunnan Tin was RMB 500 - 700, and that of small brands was RMB 0 - 200, with the spread range widening by RMB 100 month - on - month. In January, the deliverable supply is expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month, and the premium of mainstream brands is expected to fall to RMB 200 - 400. The strategy for holders of Yunnan Tin spot is to sell the SN2602 contract to lock in a premium of RMB 300 - 500. Arbitrageurs should pay attention to the spread between February and March, and consider positive arbitrage if the Back structure is greater than RMB 400 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].