Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

锡牛或将启，布局迎时机 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 锡行业深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 021-38038404 | yujiayi@gtht.com | S0880522080001 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | 本报告导读： 全球锡矿品位下降、成本中枢上移，而宏观环境逐渐改善、需求预期向好，在供给 偏紧背景下，矿山的挺价意愿及能力上升。且随着海内外货币逐步宽松，资产价格 有望迎来分母端利好，锡价中枢或持续抬升，建议布局手握优质资源的龙头企业。 投资要点： [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 其他小金属 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 有色金属《宏观情绪催化，商品价格再反弹》 2025.07.12 有色金属《【国泰海通】钴锂金属行业周报 0712》2025.07.12 有色金属《美关税扰动再起，或加剧金属价格波 动》20 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 266720 | 2780 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33565 | 115 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 20 | 150 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25204 | 1054 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 435 | -467 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1970 | -45 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7097 | -101 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 570 | -25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6605 | -26 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 266500 | -200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 266180 | -640 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -220 | -2980 LME锡升贴水(0-3 ...

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 266720 | 2780 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33565 | 115 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 20 | 150 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25204 | 1054 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 435 | -467 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1970 | -45 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7097 | -101 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 570 | -25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6605 | -26 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 266500 | -200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 266180 | -640 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

有色金属周报(精炼锡) 特朗普政府对各国加征关税仍存不确定性， 江西及国内精炼锡产能开工率连续回升 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月07日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 精炼锡 供给端：缅甸佤邦曼相矿山4月底正式复产后因采矿许可证审批严格和实际获批产能缩减及出口税由现 金税改为实物税致实际产能爬坡缓慢（初期增量不超1万金属吨且需2-3个月传导期），Alphamin Resources于4月9日宣布全球第三大刚果金北基伍省Bisie锡矿分阶段复产（24和25年生产量为1.73与2万吨） 且电力系统修复需3个月以上；中国再生锡7月生产量环比增加；江西及中国（云南）精炼锡产能开工率较 上周升高（持平）；中国精炼锡7月生产（库存）量环比增加（减少）。 需求端：中国锡焊料7月产能开工率（库存量）环比升高（增加），中国焊带7月进口（出口）量或环 比增加（增加），中国镀锡板7月生产量（进口量、出口量）或环比增加（减少、减少）。 投资策略：美国财政赤字扩张与美联储仍存降息预期，中美互征关税缓和与传统消费淡季交织，但是 缅甸佤邦和刚果金锡矿复产预期，国内精炼锡运行产能 ...

锡价回调，部分下游企业开始采购补库，现货升水维持700元/吨，国内库存小幅下降，海外去库明显。技 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 术面，持仓低位多空谨慎，面临MA60阻力，关注257000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考25.7-26.4。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 261880 | 1320 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32690 | 590 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 130 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 17549 | -985 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1459 | -1007 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2175 | -25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6965 | -142 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) ...

库存小幅下降，海外去库明显。技术面，持仓低位多空谨慎，重回前期运行区间，关注MA60阻力。操作上 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 263730 | -770 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32550 | -230 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 160 | -150 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 21967 | -1949 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 2664 | -101 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2155 | -105 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7107 | -265 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 520 | 105 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6662 | -98 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 264000 | -1300 长江有色市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The actual resumption progress of Myanmar's tin mines is expected to be slower than market expectations, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages with supply expected to be released in late June. - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under stress with a risk of capacity exit and low operating rates. - On the demand side, downstream and end - users' purchasing sentiment has improved with price declines, but overall trading remains dull. - Technically, short - term wide - range adjustments are expected, and it is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 243,000 - 257,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 249,800 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the closing price of the July - August contract was down 220 yuan with a 20 - yuan increase. - LME 3 - month tin was at 30,545 US dollars/ton, up 315 US dollars. - The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 35,021 lots, up 1,517 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures was 3,229 lots, up 831 lots. - LME tin's total inventory was 2,605 tons, down 75 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory was 8,107 tons, down 338 tons; and the warehouse receipt was 7,520 tons, down 352 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 250,400 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 249,860 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 107 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. - The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates remained unchanged at 11,500 yuan/ton and 7,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 163,170 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in this year exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with 1.1 trillion yuan in sales and about 175 million subsidies issued. - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value was 52. - Fed's Daly said she was still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast of two rate cuts by the end of the year and hoped to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate [3].

| 沪锡日评20250516：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降，国内外精炼锡库存量较上周增加 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-05-15 2025-05-14 2025-05-09 较昨日变动 | | | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 265210 265770 | 259540 | -560.00 | | | 成交量(手) 72966 86160 沪锡期货活跃合约 | 71445 | -13.194.00 | | | 持仓量(手) 30513 31510 | 30130 | -997.00 | | | 库存(吨) 8163 67 18 | 8402 | -16.00 | | | 沪锡县差 SMM 1#锡半均价 266100 265000 | 259600 | 1,100.00 | | | (现货与期货) 沪锡基差 890 -770 | 60 | 1, 660. 00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 -1110 -870 | -240 | -240.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) 沪锡连 -- 沪锡连二 10 160 | 30 | -150.00 | ...

姜维在发布会上提到，中国钢铁出口正面临前所未有的严峻挑战。受"232""301"等关税措施影响，美国 对我国钢铁产品加征关税税率已增至70%，部分品种受对等关税影响税率超过70%。美国自我国进口钢 铁规模较小，目前维持在每年不到100万吨的水平，仅占我国钢材出口总量不到1%，具体品种以管件、 钢丝、无缝管和镀锡板卷等产品为主。美国此次调整"232"关税，预计将影响我国钢铁产品及下游制品 出口，同时进一步搅乱全球钢铁贸易秩序。 根据中钢协统计，2024年我国钢铁产品遭受贸易救济原审案件33起，超过2020年至2023年案件数量总 和，今年初以来又遭受国外贸易救济调查8起。国际钢铁市场碎片化趋势加速凸显。 出口挑战不断加剧下，中钢协同时提出，主要满足国内需求是中国钢铁始终坚持的基本定位，高端钢材 出口是中国钢铁参与全球分工合作的必要途径。 中钢协副秘书长兼市场调研部主任石洪卫在今日发布会上表示，据国家统计局数据，2024年全国粗钢产 量10.05亿吨，粗钢表观消费量为8.92亿吨。这些数据体现了我国钢铁产业依然是以内需为主，我国对粗 钢的需求相当于世界整体钢产量的一半，"中国是钢铁制造的中心，更是钢铁消费的中心" ...