沪锡产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 425340 | -4230 2月-3月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -380 | 450 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 56605 | 4728 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 55233 | -1021 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -4973 | 1468 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7195 | 40 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 9720 | 171 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 345 | 50 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8624 | 42 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 434850 | 14550 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 437200 | 13460 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 9 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly tin, is driven by various factors including supply constraints and rising demand in emerging sectors [2][3][15] Industry Overview - Tin prices have seen a significant increase, with London tin prices rising over 6% to exceed $52,000, breaking the 2022 high, while Shanghai tin reached a limit-up, surpassing the 400,000 yuan mark [2][10] - The tin industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (tin mining and selection), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (various applications) [2][11] - Major tin-producing countries include China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with China being highly dependent on tin imports [10][11] Fundamental Analysis - Global macroeconomic expectations are warming, leading to increased market risk appetite, which benefits the precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [3][15] - Supply-side growth is weak due to delays in Myanmar's production recovery, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which raise expectations of production cuts [3][15] - Demand in traditional sectors is slowing, while emerging sectors such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence show strong demand, particularly for soldering materials [3][15] - Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over resource supply stability, further increasing the strategic premium of tin [3][15] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Tin prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to potential market sentiment shifts caused by macroeconomic and geopolitical changes [4][12] - The 400,000 yuan mark is seen as a critical support level for tin prices [4][12]

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 3. 加工端，12 月锡加工环节呈现因价高抑制需求而导致被动累库的特征。焊锡条（Sn99.3Cu0.7）加工费环比持平 于 9 000元/吨至9 500 元/吨，但贸易商反馈订单量环比下滑 12%，中小型焊料厂因现金流紧张减少 15–20% 采购； 无铅锡膏受消费电子低迷拖累，龙头企业出货量环比降 8%，仅光伏焊带用高银锡膏保持 3% 小幅增长。镀锡板 方面，宝钢、河钢 12 月出厂价上调 300 元/吨，但终端罐头食品厂因高价缩减 10% 节前备货，马口铁社会库存 升至 18 个月高位；锡合金（巴氏合金、铅锡阳极）受铅价走弱拖累，订单环比持平。进入 1 月，焊料企业春节 放假较往年提前 3至5 天，预计加工品需求再降 8–10%。而光伏 TOPCon 与 HJT 新扩 4 GW 产能将在 1 月下旬 陆续投料，光伏焊带需求有望环比回升 5%，部分对冲传统焊料淡季缺口，加工费大概率持稳。 4. 终端方面，12 月终端消费传统需求偏冷、新兴能源呈现向好的格局。消费电子领域，手机出货量 2 800 万部， 环比降 7%，TWS 耳机、笔记本电脑库存天数分别升至 11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity. As of the end of 2024, global tin reserves are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons. The reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from around 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024, indicating a low level of reserves compared to production [2][21] - Global tin supply is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to decreasing ore grades and various unpredictable factors affecting major production areas. China, the largest producer, has seen a decline in domestic production since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations [2][21] - Demand for tin is projected to remain stable or increase, driven by the semiconductor industry and other applications. The global demand for tin is expected to reach 386,000 tons in 2025, with a steady growth forecast through 2027 [2][21] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 16,000 tons. This gap may narrow in subsequent years as production resumes in Myanmar and new projects come online [2][21] - Key companies in the industry include Xiyang Co., Xingye Yinxin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Tin is characterized by its low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications. The global distribution of tin reserves is concentrated in a few countries, with China holding the largest share [2][21] Supply Dynamics - The global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons in recent years, but significant declines are expected due to various factors affecting major production areas, including environmental regulations and resource depletion [2][21] Demand Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is a major driver of tin demand, with a strong correlation to electronic product production. The demand for tin in solder applications is expected to grow, supported by a recovery in semiconductor sales [2][21] Price Trends - Tin prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 46% since early 2024. The average price for tin in 2024 is projected to be 248,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [12][21] Regional Insights - China's tin production has been on a downward trend, with production expected to be 69,000 tons in 2024, down from previous highs. Despite this, China remains the largest producer and holder of tin reserves globally [34][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].