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美联储停止缩表预期和国内锡矿供给紧张支撑锡价
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 07:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]
首钢股份:未来公司将坚持“技术领先、绿色低碳”的发展路径
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-22 11:41
Core Viewpoint - The company aims to adhere to a development path of "technological leadership and green low-carbon" while leveraging technological innovation to drive comprehensive innovation [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - The company plans to fully utilize technological innovation to transform its technological advantages into product, service, brand, and competitive advantages [1] - Emphasis will be placed on developing high-end products such as electrical steel, automotive sheets, and tinplate in response to emerging industry demands [1] Group 2: Sustainable Development - The company is committed to enhancing the manufacturing service level and operational efficiency of steel materials while implementing low-carbon action plans [1] - The focus on low-carbon sustainable development is a key aspect of the company's future strategy [1]
有色金属周报:国内外宏观乐观预期和部分精炼锡产能检修支撑锡价-20250915
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 04:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].
中国四大巨头,净利润比不过日本制铁,凭什么?
首席商业评论· 2025-09-15 04:25
Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's crude steel production is projected to be 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global production, marking five consecutive years as a billion-ton steel powerhouse. However, Chinese steel companies face challenges of being large but not strong, with high production but low profitability compared to global competitors like Japan [4][26]. Group 1: China's Steel Industry - China's steel industry has six companies in the top ten global steel producers, but the net profits of its top four listed steel companies are still lower than Japan's Nippon Steel [4][7]. - In 2024, China is expected to export 110.71 million tons of steel, with an average price of $755.4 per ton, indicating a trend of increasing volume but decreasing total revenue [26][27]. - China's reliance on imported iron ore is significant, with imports expected to reach 1.237 billion tons in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making the industry vulnerable to international price fluctuations [28][30]. Group 2: Japan's Steel Industry Recovery - Japan's Nippon Steel faced severe losses in 2019, with a deficit of 406.1 billion yen (approximately 19.45 billion RMB), but implemented a turnaround strategy that included shutting down furnaces and restructuring operations, leading to a profit of 113 billion yen (approximately 5.61 billion RMB) within a year [18][23]. - The company shifted focus to high-value-added products, such as special steels, which accounted for 20.96% of its total production in 2020, compared to only 12.31% for China [21][24]. - Nippon Steel's recovery strategy also involved negotiating price increases for long-term contracts with clients, which, despite potential backlash from major customers, effectively boosted revenue [22][24]. Group 3: Lessons for China - The challenges faced by Japan's steel industry in the past provide valuable lessons for China, particularly in terms of focusing on high-value products and improving operational efficiency [31]. - China's steel companies are making strides in producing high-value steel products, such as LNG ship steel and aircraft carrier deck steel, indicating a shift towards higher quality and value in production [31].
中国四大巨头,加起来比不过日本制铁,凭什么?
商业洞察· 2025-08-27 09:31
Core Viewpoint - China has maintained its position as the world's largest steel producer, with a crude steel output of 1.005 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 53.38% of global production, despite efforts to reduce excess capacity [3][20]. Group 1: China's Steel Industry - China's steel industry is characterized by high production but low profitability, with the net profits of its top four listed steel companies in 2024 not surpassing that of Japan's Nippon Steel [3][5]. - In 2024, China exported 11.07 million tons of steel, with an average price of $755.4 per ton, indicating a trend of increasing volume but decreasing total revenue [20][22]. - China's reliance on imported iron ore is significant, with imports reaching 1.237 billion tons in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making the industry vulnerable to international price fluctuations [23][25]. Group 2: Japan's Steel Industry Recovery - Japan's Nippon Steel faced severe losses in 2019 but implemented a comprehensive reform strategy that included shutting down high-cost production facilities and focusing on high-value products, leading to a turnaround in profitability within a year [14][18]. - The company shifted its focus to producing high-margin products, such as special steel, which accounted for approximately 20.96% of its total crude steel output in 2020, compared to only 12.31% for China [17][20]. - Japan's steel industry has benefited from government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity and promoting industry upgrades, which could serve as a model for China's steel sector [12][26]. Group 3: Future Directions for China's Steel Companies - Chinese steel companies are encouraged to learn from Japan's past experiences and focus on producing high-value-added steel products to enhance profitability and competitiveness [26]. - The development of high-quality steel products, such as LNG ship steel and aircraft carrier deck steel, indicates progress in technology and product diversification within China's steel industry [26].
中国四大巨头,加起来比不过日本制铁,凭什么?|地球知识局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 13:49
Group 1 - In 2024, China's crude steel production reached 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global output, marking five consecutive years as a billion-ton steel powerhouse [2] - Among the top 10 steel producers, six are Chinese companies, highlighting China's dominance in steel production despite efforts to curb excess capacity [2] - The most profitable four listed steel companies in China (Baowu, CITIC Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Huazhong Steel) combined net profits in 2024 were still lower than Japan's Nippon Steel, which indicates a disparity in profitability despite higher production [2][5] Group 2 - Japan's Nippon Steel faced overcapacity issues in the late 1990s and significant losses in 2018, but successfully turned around its fortunes by 2020, demonstrating effective management strategies [5][20] - Key strategies employed by Japanese steel companies included securing low-cost iron ore supplies, focusing on high-value steel products, and government support for industry upgrades [14][18] - In 2020, Japan's crude steel production was 83.19 million tons, with special steel accounting for approximately 20.96% of total production, compared to China's 12.31% for special steel in the same year [30] Group 3 - China's steel industry is heavily reliant on imported iron ore, with 1.237 billion tons imported in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making it vulnerable to international price fluctuations [37] - The Chinese steel sector is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at transitioning to higher-value production, with notable advancements in technology and product quality [38] - The establishment of projects like the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea aims to enhance China's self-sufficiency in high-grade iron ore, potentially increasing domestic supply by 3-5% [37][38]
中国四大巨头,加起来比不过日本制铁,凭什么?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-26 13:16
Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's crude steel production reached 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global output, maintaining its position as the world's largest steel producer for five consecutive years [1] Group 1: Production and Market Position - China dominates the global steel production landscape, with six out of the top ten steel companies being Chinese [1] - Despite the high production volume, Chinese steel companies face challenges such as overcapacity and low profitability [2] Group 2: Profitability Comparison - The combined net profit of China's four most profitable listed steel companies (Baosteel, CITIC Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Huazhong Steel) in 2024 is still lower than that of Japan's Nippon Steel [3][8] - Nippon Steel's net profit for 2024 is approximately 110.4 billion yen (around 5.61 billion RMB), significantly higher than the combined profits of the top Chinese steel firms [3][7] Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Japan's steel industry faced overcapacity issues in the late 20th century but successfully turned around by focusing on high-value products and strategic resource management [9][22] - Japan's Nippon Steel implemented significant reforms, including shutting down inefficient production lines and focusing on high-margin products, leading to a rapid recovery from losses [30][44] Group 4: Future Directions for Chinese Steel Companies - Chinese steel companies are encouraged to learn from Japan's experience, particularly in enhancing product quality and profitability [58] - The Chinese steel industry is making strides in producing high-value steel products, indicating potential for future growth and competitiveness [59]
有色金属周报(精炼锡):缅甸佤邦锡矿完全复产仍需时间,美联储降息预期升温支撑锡价-20250825
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:15
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, with most believing inflation risk outweighs employment risk. In the tin market, despite Myanmar's restart of mining permit approvals, actual tin ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, production rebounded in July due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most maintaining only essential production and orders being mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, with downstream enterprises making essential purchases at low prices. Domestic and LME inventories are on a downward trend. Technically, positions are decreasing, and both bulls and bears are cautious, expecting range - bound oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan. The closing price of the September - October contract was down 240 yuan. LME 3 - month tin was at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 18,744 lots, down 633 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,514 lots, down 642 lots. LME tin total inventory was 1,630 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,792 tons, down 13 tons, and the warehouse receipt was down 25 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 266,800 yuan/ton, down 184 - 700 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 268,410 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,830 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration announced that the total electricity consumption in July was 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream enterprises mostly make rigid - demand purchases when the price is low, and there are some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory shows a downward trend. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the range of 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract is 230 yuan lower, with a change of 0; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,770 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 19,377 lots, a decrease of 1,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 872 lots, a decrease of 159 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,630 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,792 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,329 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 outcomes. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3] 3.7观点总结 - Macroscopically, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic industry competition order will be regulated. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most enterprises only maintaining rigid - demand production and receiving goods, and the orders are unsatisfactory. Recently, the tin price has been fluctuating, with most downstream enterprises making rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories are decreasing. Technically, the open interest has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [3]