1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at MA10 [3]. - On the macro - front, Trump claims productive dialogue with Iran, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure and negotiating a broader agreement. On the fundamental side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, the supply shortage is showing signs of alleviation, the production of refined tin will gradually recover but may be affected, the import pressure is increasing, the demand in the AI field is strong, the spot premium is high, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is warming, and the inventory is decreasing significantly while LME inventory is increasing and the spot premium is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 347,970 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,500 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,660 US dollars/ton; the main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 21,087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,897 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 6,796 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 268 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,805 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 635 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 tons [3]. - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,552 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 426 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,250 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,250 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,230 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 266 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31 US dollars/ton [3]. - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 17,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 325,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 329,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 757.7 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,700 yuan/ton; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 145,500 tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump claims a "strong" dialogue with Iran, forming key points of an agreement and suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, while Iran denies the dialogue [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase, and aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a 35% year - on - year increase [3]. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the negotiation with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates but still retaining the space for rate cuts this year; Milan thinks rate hikes may be needed in case of second - round inflation effects and wage increases; Daly believes excessive forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty and still expects four rate cuts in 2026 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, but the volatility of steel prices further decreased. Short - term steel prices lack driving forces, with overall weak spot trading, less spot - futures purchases, and increasing market wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly. Among them, rebar output continued to increase while hot - rolled coil output decreased. However, as production suspensions and overhauls end this week, pig iron production is expected to resume [5]. - Recently, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, showing good performance, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly. Rebar inventory is accumulating faster, while hot - rolled coil inventory has started to decline [5]. - The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved recently, but the resumption of work and capital conditions are still weaker than in previous years [5]. - Recently, export orders have been performing well, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand situation of hot - rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand [5]. - Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased recently, energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise, and there are rumors of import disruptions for iron ore. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel [5]. - Short - term steel prices will maintain a volatile market with support at the bottom. In the future, attention should be paid to pig iron production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3220 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3170 yuan (+10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan (+10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3220 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend [6]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Important Information - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; and steel output was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [8]. - On March 12, 2026, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement, making a positive final anti - dumping ruling on tin - plated sheets originating from China. The dumping margin for Shougang Group is 27.85%, the injury margin is 62.39%, and the anti - dumping duty is 27.85%. The dumping margin for other exporters is 49.98%, the injury margin is 88.00%, and the anti - dumping duty is 49.98%. It is recommended to impose an anti - dumping duty on Chinese products involved for a period of 5 years [8][9]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts in Shanghai area), the price differences between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01), the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts, the cash profit of different steel products (such as East China rebar, Tianjin hot - rolled coil, etc.), the cash profit of electric furnaces (at flat and valley electricity prices), the cash profit of Tangshan billets, the price difference between East China pig iron and scrap steel, the price difference between cold and hot rolled products in Shanghai, and the cost of East China electric furnaces [14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will experience a short - term weak adjustment, breaking below the MA60 support level, and suggests paying attention to the 355,000 yuan/ton position. The main reasons include the complex macro - situation and the current state of supply and demand in the tin market. On the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the import pressure is rising. On the demand side, although the development of the AI field is expected to drive the demand for solder, the current downstream demand is weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak decline. The weekly price change was - 4.97%, and the amplitude was 9.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 374,110 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with multiple drone attacks in Dubai and oil prices breaking through $100 per barrel. - **Fundamental - aspect**: On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to lead to a continued increase in domestic tin ore imports. The processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and some external - mined ore production capacities are at a loss, which will affect the output of refined tin. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, the development of the AI field has strong prospects, which will significantly drive the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has declined, but the downstream sentiment is weak, and the procurement demand is flat due to the fear of price drops. The inventory has increased again, and the spot premium is 1,750 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted. - **Technical - aspect**: The position remains stable with a weak adjustment, and both long and short positions are trading cautiously [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Spot Premium**: This week, the futures price has declined, and the spot premium has increased. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 374,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,530 yuan/ton or 4.48% compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was $49,230 per ton, a decrease of $175 per ton or 0.35% compared to March 6 [11]. - **Ratio of Tin to Nickel and Shanghai - London Ratio**: As of March 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.8, an increase of 0.09 compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.96, an increase of 0.06 compared to March 3 [17]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of March 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 11,597 lots, a decrease of 788 lots compared to March 9, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 87,355 lots, a decrease of 3,777 lots or 4.14% compared to March 6 [21]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Output**: In December 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of tin ore and concentrates was 135,733.29 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27][28]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On March 13, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 14.29% compared to March 12, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 10.34% compared to March 12, 2026 [33]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of March 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 3,560.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,942.16 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,547.75 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 2,763.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [38][39]. - **Inventory**: As of March 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 8,630 tons, an increase of 855 tons or 11% compared to March 5. As of March 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons or 7.3% compared to last week. As of March 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 12,273 tons, an increase of 2,026 tons or 19.77% compared to March 6 [42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On March 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,643.17, a decrease of 178.59 or 2.28% compared to March 5. From January to December 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 million pieces, an increase of 3,285,651.6 million pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [45]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of January 2026, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, the same as in December 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that tin prices will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should focus on the price range of 400,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 414,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,980 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai Tin is down 600 yuan, a decrease of 220 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 53,915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3,615 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 12,801 lots, a decrease of 5,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 7,318 lots, a decrease of 514 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,680 tons, an increase of 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin is 11,556 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 414,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 415,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 11,310 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 14,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,790 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 20 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 400,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 404,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 262,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,020 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 152,870 tons, an increase of 13,870 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to promote the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures; Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Germany in various fields; the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month - on - month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year - on - year [3] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing, but the refined tin output is still restricted. After the Spring Festival, there is pressure for output to rebound. On the import side, the export volume of Indonesian tin has increased, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises are on holiday, with weak procurement willingness, and the spot market has the situation of "price but no market" [3] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The position increases and the price rebounds, and the bullish sentiment is relatively strong [3]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is recognized as China's largest modern steel joint enterprise, focusing on the research, production, and sales of high-end steel products [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company specializes in high-tech, high-value-added steel products, including automotive sheets, home appliance sheets, electrical steel, tinplate, and steel for energy and pipelines [1] - Baosteel's products are widely used in various sectors such as automotive manufacturing, home appliances, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, and infrastructure construction [1] Group 2: Market Position - Baosteel has established itself as a major steel supplier in the Chinese market while also exporting products to over 40 countries and regions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly tin, is driven by various factors including supply constraints and rising demand in emerging sectors [2][3][15] Industry Overview - Tin prices have seen a significant increase, with London tin prices rising over 6% to exceed $52,000, breaking the 2022 high, while Shanghai tin reached a limit-up, surpassing the 400,000 yuan mark [2][10] - The tin industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (tin mining and selection), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (various applications) [2][11] - Major tin-producing countries include China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with China being highly dependent on tin imports [10][11] Fundamental Analysis - Global macroeconomic expectations are warming, leading to increased market risk appetite, which benefits the precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [3][15] - Supply-side growth is weak due to delays in Myanmar's production recovery, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which raise expectations of production cuts [3][15] - Demand in traditional sectors is slowing, while emerging sectors such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence show strong demand, particularly for soldering materials [3][15] - Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened concerns over resource supply stability, further increasing the strategic premium of tin [3][15] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Tin prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to potential market sentiment shifts caused by macroeconomic and geopolitical changes [4][12] - The 400,000 yuan mark is seen as a critical support level for tin prices [4][12]