锡市场 2026 年年报 锡：灼华未央，价韧其章 —— 2025年锡市场 回顾与 2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 胡彬 Z0011019 | 第一部分2025年锡市场走势回顾 1 | | | --- | --- | | 一、锡价长期走势回顾 1 | | | 二、2025年锡行情回顾 2 | | | （一）锡期货价格回顾 2 | | | （二）锡现货及升贴水 2 | | | 第二部分宏观分析 3 | | | 第三部分锡市场供给分析 | 4 | | 一、锡矿供应或将前紧后松 4 | | | 二、精锡产量将维持增长 | 7 | | 第四部分锡市场需求分析 | 8 | | 一、镀锡板产量下滑出口增长 8 | | | 二、铅蓄电池产量大幅增长 9 | | | 三、电子产品增长周期或近尾声 10 | | | 四、集成电路产量还将维持较快增长 11 | | | 五、光伏产业从高速发展期转型待续 11 | | | 六、新能源汽车维持增长 12 | | | 第五部分锡库存先扬后抑 13 | | | 第六部分全球精锡供需平衡表预测 14 | | | 第七部分季节性与技术分析 14 | | | 一、季节 ...

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 322630 | 10310 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -770 | -180 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 39850 | 50 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 47499 | 4075 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 753 | 1084 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3050 | -25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6865 | 506 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 260 | -25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7151 | -86 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 316700 | 700 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 317140 | 1550 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity. As of the end of 2024, global tin reserves are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons. The reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from around 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024, indicating a low level of reserves compared to production [2][21] - Global tin supply is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to decreasing ore grades and various unpredictable factors affecting major production areas. China, the largest producer, has seen a decline in domestic production since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations [2][21] - Demand for tin is projected to remain stable or increase, driven by the semiconductor industry and other applications. The global demand for tin is expected to reach 386,000 tons in 2025, with a steady growth forecast through 2027 [2][21] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 16,000 tons. This gap may narrow in subsequent years as production resumes in Myanmar and new projects come online [2][21] - Key companies in the industry include Xiyang Co., Xingye Yinxin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Tin is characterized by its low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications. The global distribution of tin reserves is concentrated in a few countries, with China holding the largest share [2][21] Supply Dynamics - The global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons in recent years, but significant declines are expected due to various factors affecting major production areas, including environmental regulations and resource depletion [2][21] Demand Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is a major driver of tin demand, with a strong correlation to electronic product production. The demand for tin in solder applications is expected to grow, supported by a recovery in semiconductor sales [2][21] Price Trends - Tin prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 46% since early 2024. The average price for tin in 2024 is projected to be 248,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [12][21] Regional Insights - China's tin production has been on a downward trend, with production expected to be 69,000 tons in 2024, down from previous highs. Despite this, China remains the largest producer and holder of tin reserves globally [34][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by product competitiveness and strategic focus on high-end products [2][10]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 9.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368.13% [2][10]. - The company's main revenue for the same period was 772.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.78% year-on-year [10]. - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 255.06% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline of 2.25% [10]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is enhancing its "manufacturing + service" competitive advantage, focusing on R&D and technological innovation [2]. - Electric steel production is expected to increase by over 10% in 2025, with new products launched for high-efficiency transformers and applications in robotics and electric vehicles [3]. - The company is committed to developing high-end differentiated products, particularly in the medium-thick plate segment, to meet emerging industry demands [2][3]. Market Position and Competition - The automotive steel segment has seen steady improvement in competitiveness and production, with new product launches aimed at meeting customer needs [4][5]. - The company has established a three-tier marketing service support system to enhance customer satisfaction and service efficiency [5]. Future Investments and Capital Expenditure - Future capital expenditures will focus on production line upgrades, smart manufacturing projects, and energy-saving initiatives, with total investment controlled at half of depreciation and amortization [7]. - A new automotive plate production line is expected to be operational by 2027, enhancing the company's production capacity and flexibility [5]. Industry Trends and Carbon Emission Regulations - The steel industry is set to enter a carbon emissions trading market, which will initially provide a buffer period for companies to adapt [8][9]. - Long-term, the carbon market is expected to drive technological innovation and reduce emissions, with the company preparing by investing in low-carbon technologies and establishing a carbon management platform [9].

Core Insights - The company held a specific investor survey on November 19, 2025, discussing performance, product competitiveness, capital expenditure, and carbon emission policies [1][2] Group 1: Performance and Product Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 9.53 billion yuan, a significant increase of 368.13% year-on-year, driven by the competitiveness of core products such as electrical steel, automotive plates, and tinplate [3] - The company is focusing on improving the profitability of its medium-thick plates by expanding market share in new energy and high-end equipment sectors while optimizing production processes [3] Group 2: Electrical Steel Business - The company expects a more than 10% increase in electrical steel production in 2025, supported by a comprehensive production system covering over 600 key process control points [4] - The company is accelerating the development and promotion of high-end products, including new oriented electrical steel products for high-efficiency transformers and non-oriented high magnetic products for robotics and new energy vehicles [4] Group 3: Automotive Plate Competitiveness - The automotive plate business has seen steady growth in production and profitability, driven by a dual approach of product innovation and service enhancement [5] - The company plans to launch a new automotive plate production line in 2027, which will enhance product structure flexibility and maintain market leadership [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Future capital expenditures will be controlled within 50% of depreciation and amortization, focusing on production line upgrades, intelligent manufacturing, and quality improvement [6] - Depreciation is expected to decline as new plants have already accounted for some equipment depreciation [6] Group 5: Carbon Emission Policy Response - The company is adopting a cautious approach to carbon emission trading, with a focus on short-term stability and long-term technological innovation [8] - Initiatives include promoting short-process carbon reduction, conducting advanced technology research, and establishing a closed-loop recycling system in collaboration with Volvo [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 368.13 million yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53% [2] - The production of electrical steel is expected to increase by over 10% in 2025 [4] Group 2: Product Development and Strategy - The company focuses on creating a competitive advantage through "manufacturing + service" and emphasizes technological innovation [2] - New products launched include oriented electrical steel for high-efficiency transformers and non-oriented high magnetic products for robotics and electric vehicles [4] Group 3: Automotive Steel Market - The company has improved the competitiveness and production of automotive steel, maintaining good profitability [5] - Recent product launches include zinc-aluminum-magnesium coated products and high-strength automotive steel, which have received positive responses from downstream users [5] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Future investments will be controlled at half of depreciation and amortization, focusing on production line upgrades and energy-saving projects [8] - Depreciation is expected to stabilize and decline as some equipment has completed depreciation [8] Group 5: Carbon Emission Management - The steel industry will enter a carbon trading market, with a gradual tightening of quotas expected from 2027 [9] - The company is preparing for carbon reduction through various initiatives, including the construction of a new electric furnace and research on advanced carbon reduction technologies [10]

Group 1 - The traditional belief that "long processes must be high carbon" is being challenged as Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation successfully produced steel with over 50% scrap steel content, marking a significant breakthrough in green low-carbon smelting technology [1] - Increasing the scrap steel ratio is crucial for reducing carbon emissions, with a 10% increase in scrap steel leading to approximately a 6% reduction in CO2 emissions per ton of steel [1] - Other companies, such as Hunan Lianyuan Steel and Shougang Jingtang, have also achieved high scrap steel ratios in their production processes, with reductions in CO2 emissions of 43% and successful trials with over 55% scrap steel, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The advancements in scrap steel ratios indicate that the steel industry's low-carbon transformation is moving from technical demonstration to large-scale application, with the current average scrap steel ratio in the industry around 20% [2] - Key technological breakthroughs in temperature control and composition stability in steelmaking processes have enabled these advancements, with companies employing various innovative methods to achieve high scrap steel ratios [2] - The large scrap steel ratio technology has been successfully applied to high-end products such as automotive sheets and home appliance sheets, demonstrating its ability to meet stringent quality requirements while achieving carbon reduction goals [3] Group 3 - The market favorability of large scrap steel ratio technology stems from its significant advantages in environmental protection, raw materials, and product quality [3] - Other innovative technologies, such as Baosteel's full scrap electric furnace smelting and Hebei Iron and Steel's hydrogen-based direct reduction iron technology, are also contributing to the industry's efforts towards near-zero carbon emissions [3] - Maximizing the use of scrap steel is viewed as the most practical and effective choice for the steel industry to achieve green low-carbon development until more advanced technologies like hydrogen metallurgy are fully developed [3]

沪锡产业日报 2025-11-17 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 290360 | -1090 12月-1月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -560 | -110 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 36860 | -205 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31904 | -4437 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -636 | 305 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3065 | 10 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6258 | 266 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6099 | 167 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 289900 | -2200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 290090 | -2950 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元 ...