In the run up to the sell off on Friday, which was dramatic in nature, we'd started questioning the sustainability of this rally. Is it fair to say that a lot of that froth and that speculative positioning has come out, or is the clearing level going to be a lot lower. Martin.I think that some of that froth is definitely out. We saw we saw the biggest drop in in the decades for Gold Day last Friday, in fact. And it's down more than 5% again today.Look, I think throughout last week, all that kind of frenzied ...

Market Overview - Global markets experienced volatility with major indices such as Nikkei 225, Hong Kong stocks, and US futures all showing declines [1] - A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4100-point mark while the ChiNext Index rebounded after a dip [1] Commodity Performance - Precious metals and industrial metals faced significant declines, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Nanshan Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [2] - International precious metals saw a sharp drop, with spot gold falling by 4% to below $5200 per ounce, and spot silver dropping over 5% [2] Specific Stock Movements - CPO and optical communication stocks surged, with LianTe Technology and Tianfu Communication rising over 11%, while Changfei Optical Fiber hit the daily limit [2] - The education sector saw gains, with China Spring rising over 64% and New Oriental increasing by over 5% [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies continued to decline, with Bitcoin dropping over 6% to below $82,300, and Ethereum and SOL falling over 7% [4] - Over 270,000 individuals were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with total liquidation amounts nearing $1.7 billion [4] Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded, increasing by 0.44% to 96.58 [5] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are impacting global markets, with reports of US President Trump planning to engage in dialogue with Iran [6] - The upcoming announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair is also a focal point for global markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - Brokerages are optimistic about Vedanta's stock, with Nuvama Institutional Equities raising the target price to Rs 806 from Rs 686, indicating an 18% upside potential from current levels [1][3]. Company Developments - The NCLT approved the demerger of Vedanta into five listed entities, with the base metals business remaining in Vedanta Ltd and four other entities being Vedanta Aluminium, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Steel and Iron, and Malco Energy [1][8]. - Vedanta is nearing the completion of regulatory approvals for its demerger, which is expected to enhance the company's investment thesis through strong commodity upcycle, cost optimization, and volume growth [2][8]. Financial Projections - Nuvama has revised FY27E/28E EBITDA estimates upward by 17% and 8% respectively, projecting a 20% CAGR in EBITDA over FY25–28E, reaching Rs 724 billion [3][9]. - Average price assumptions for FY27E and FY28E have been increased to $3,000 and $2,750 per tonne for aluminium, $3,000 and $2,900 per tonne for zinc, and $60 per ounce for silver [6][9]. - The INR–USD exchange rate assumption for FY27E and FY28E has been adjusted to 89 from 87.5 [6][9]. Market Performance - Shares of Vedanta were trading at Rs 696, reflecting a 2.6% increase from the previous close, with a peak of Rs 699, marking a 52-week high [8][9]. - Kotak Institutional Equities has set a target price of Rs 780 per share, highlighting that approximately 85% of Vedanta's FY2027E EBITDA will be driven by aluminium (50%), zinc (20%), and silver (15%) [7][9].

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - January 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the impact of high commodity prices on demand and supply dynamics across various sectors. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-January, with **solar and machinery** sectors showing weakness while **battery** demand remains strong [1] - The surge in metal prices has led to notable changes in downstream demand across sectors such as **consumer electronics**, **hardware manufacturing**, **copper cables**, and **aluminum** in industrial and construction areas, resulting in weaker or delayed orderbooks and rising metal inventories [1] - High-frequency data indicates that in the first two weeks of January, Chinese demand is down **1-9% year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **3-10% YoY** for aluminum and copper, while flat steel demand is up **3% YoY** [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply conditions remain heterogeneous, with consistent feedback on **cement capacity** cleaning up and ongoing capacity discipline in **coal**, but lackluster control in **steel production** [1] - Margin and pricing for **steel**, **copper**, **aluminum**, and **lithium** have improved, while **cement** and **coal** prices have remained stable [1] Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Demand is lower, with a **1-9% YoY** decline noted [1] - **Aluminum and Copper**: Demand has deteriorated significantly amid high prices, with a **3-10% YoY** decline reported [1] - **Steel**: Margins have improved, but production control remains weak [1] - **Battery Materials**: Strong demand persists, leading to price hikes in solar modules, AC, LFP cathodes, and battery cells [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates a mixed month-over-month (MoM) trend in forward orderbooks, with **19%** of respondents reporting a pickup in January for downstream sectors and **6%** for basic materials [2] Additional Observations - The report notes that in regions with strong demand or better supply structures, price hikes have begun in specific materials, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The overall sentiment reflects caution due to high commodity prices suppressing demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to price fluctuations [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of high commodity prices affecting demand and supply across various sectors. While some areas like battery materials show resilience, others like aluminum and copper are facing significant demand challenges. The mixed feedback from producers suggests a cautious outlook moving forward, with potential opportunities in regions with strong demand dynamics.

Core Insights - Precious metals, including gold, silver, and copper, have experienced significant price increases, with gold futures reaching $4,650 per troy ounce, marking a 5% year-to-date gain [1] - Analysts from UBS and Citi predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the coming months, with silver potentially hitting $100 per ounce, although corrections may occur later in the year [2][3] - The surge in metal prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, supply deficits, and increased demand for hedging against macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] Gold Market - Gold futures have climbed to $4,650 per troy ounce, reflecting a 5% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - UBS forecasts gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce, with a possibility of climbing to $5,400 if political or financial risks escalate [2] - Citi analysts share a similar outlook, suggesting gold could hit $5,000 within three months [3] Silver Market - Silver prices have surged above $91 per ounce, pushing its total market value above $5 trillion for the first time [3] - The metal has increased by 20% since the start of the year, contributing to a nearly 150% rally in 2025 [4] - Concerns over supply deficits and recent export curbs from China have driven the price increase, with silver benefiting from both monetary and industrial demand [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have reached record highs, exceeding $6 per pound in the US and more than $13,188 per ton in London [5] - The increase is driven by concerns over potential import tariffs and an acceleration of shipments to the US, which has tightened global supply [5] - Goldman Sachs has warned of a potential pullback in copper prices, anticipating that tariff decisions may be delayed or not implemented [6]

Market Overview - Copper prices have surged, breaking through $13,000 a ton for the first time, driven by investor optimism regarding a tighter market and a risk-on sentiment in broader financial markets [1] - Three-month futures reached a record $13,387.50 a ton, reflecting a 3.1% increase, as expectations of potential tariffs on refined metals by the Trump administration have led to significant inventory movements into the US [2] Inventory Dynamics - Inventories that previously acted as a buffer are now largely concentrated in the US, leading to concerns about global shortages as miners struggle to increase output [3] - The LMEX Index, which tracks six base metals including copper, has seen its highest levels since March 2022, with copper gaining over 20% since late November [3] Trade and Tariff Implications - The US copper imports in December reached their highest levels since July, influenced by the Trump administration's tariff exemptions on refined metals, which initially paused trade but has since revived due to renewed tariff discussions [3] - The Department of Commerce is expected to provide an update on US copper markets by the end of June, with a potential decision on tariffs for refined metal anticipated [6] Demand Factors - The rally in copper prices is supported by optimism regarding demand in high-growth sectors such as renewable energy, data centers, and power grids [5] - The weakening dollar has also contributed positively to copper and other commodities, as investors engage in the debasement trade [4] Expert Insights - Industry experts, including BlackRock's Evy Hambro, suggest that the copper market could become "very exciting" if various factors align, indicating strong bullish sentiment [5] - Kostas Bintas from Mercuria Energy Group has warned that the current import rush could leave the rest of the world without sufficient copper, highlighting the potential for significant market movements [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals Market - **Outlook for 2026**: Positive outlook driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets, with tight supply-demand balances and low inventories supporting prices [1][3] Precious Metals - **Geopolitical Risks**: Recent events in Venezuela are expected to drive safe haven inflows, supporting precious metals prices [4] - **Gold Forecast**: Projected to reach $4,800/oz by 4Q26, supported by falling interest rates and strong physical demand from central banks and ETFs [4][23] - **Silver Dynamics**: - 2025 marked the peak deficit for silver, but prices continue to rise due to its precious metal characteristics and tight physical markets [4][30] - China's new export license requirements may further support silver prices [4][30] - Index rebalancing may bring short-term downside risks, with an estimated $5 billion of silver futures needing to be sold [4][13] Base Metals - **Preferred Metals**: Aluminium and copper are favored due to supply challenges and new demand sources [5] - **Aluminium Supply**: Constrained globally, with production growth expected to be just 1.4% in 2026 [65] - **Copper Market**: - US copper imports are surging, keeping ex-US markets tight [45] - Elevated supply disruptions from 2025 are expected to spill over into 2026, with a forecasted market deficit of ~600 kt for 2026 [64] - Demand from China has softened, but there are signs of potential growth in 2026 due to government support for renewables [54][55] Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Gold Demand**: Central banks added approximately 630 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of 2025, but demand is expected to slow due to higher prices [14] - **Jewelry Demand**: Mixed signals with a rebound in Q3, but notable softening in November, particularly in China [22] - **Solar Demand for Silver**: Likely peaked, with expected declines in installations due to price pressures [31] Market Risks and Opportunities - **Investment Demand**: Likely to remain a key driver for both precious and industrial metals, with potential physical squeezes due to low inventories [42] - **Tariff Implications**: US tariffs on refined copper could significantly impact market dynamics, with recommendations for phased tariffs starting in 2027 [46] - **Nickel Supply Concerns**: Fears of supply cuts from Indonesia have driven prices higher, but elevated inventories may moderate impacts [74][82] Conclusion - The metals market is poised for a strong performance in 2026, with both precious and base metals showing potential for price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks. However, there are also significant risks related to demand sensitivity, supply disruptions, and regulatory changes that could impact market dynamics.

Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Rate Trajectory - The upcoming change in Fed chair leadership in 2026 is significant for the rate trajectory and overall macroeconomic environment [1][2][3] - A dovish Fed chair may lead to potential rate cuts, but it is unlikely that rates will drop to 1% or 2% [2][4] - The new Fed chair's ability to influence the committee's stance on rates is crucial, as they only have one vote and need committee support for major changes [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns and Economic Data - Inflation has taken a backseat recently, but its potential resurgence in 2026 remains uncertain [5][6] - Current inflation data may be distorted, complicating predictions for future inflation trends [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still unclear, with opinions divided on whether they will have a lasting effect [14] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The oil and gas market shows signs of flagging inflation, while precious metals are reaching record highs, indicating mixed signals in the economy [11][12] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion is not intended to be stimulative but may have stimulative effects on the economy [13] - Lower interest rates could benefit housing and reduce the interest burden on U.S. Treasury debt, positively impacting the real economy [22][25]

Market Overview - Gold prices have reached a record high, increasing by 70% this year, with 51 record highs noted [1] - Copper prices have also hit a record, rising by 30% this year, driven by demand from AI data centers [1] - The S&P 500 index is at a record high, coinciding with significant gains in traditional defensive areas of the metals market [1] Investment Insights - Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist noted a bullish outlook on gold with a price target of $4,000, highlighting the unexpected breakout of silver to an all-time high and the overall bullish trend in metal stocks [2] - The chief investment officer of Robinhood expressed surprise at the lower-than-expected inflation data, questioning whether inflation concerns were warranted [3] - An analyst from The Benchmark Company anticipated faster development in blockchain and crypto initiatives, emphasizing the importance of upcoming legislative changes in the US Senate that could influence the digital asset market in 2026 [3]

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - Overseas, Fed official Milan said there's no short - term recession, but rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to turn dovish and cut rates. The market risk appetite is good, with tech stocks driving the US stocks up, the US Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, and the US dollar index dropping to 98.2. Japanese officials signaled possible foreign exchange intervention, strengthening the yen. Geopolitical issues pushed up oil prices. Risk assets are supported by sentiment and liquidity in the short - term, but caution is needed due to approaching holidays [2] - In China, the LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year is 3%. The probability of a rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut this year is low, with the next possible rate cut expected early next year. A - shares rose on Monday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding over 2%. Over 2900 stocks closed up, and the trading volume expanded to 1.88 trillion. The market may maintain a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern in the short - term. The bond market readjusted, lacking a clear direction [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Domestic platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit, and the overseas platinum price reached a new high. The rise is due to the resonance of macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The weakening of the US dollar credit supports gold in the long - term. Silver's strategic position in green energy and high - end manufacturing attracts funds, and platinum and palladium face supply shortages and strong industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract continued to rise on Monday, and LME copper approached $12000. The spot market trading was poor, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 195 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased to 15.7 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 46.7 million tons. Fed official Milan maintained a dovish stance, and Trump will announce a new Fed chair in early January, likely to be more dovish. The global mine supply is tight, and the long - term TC benchmark price is 0 dollars/ton. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 2220 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.82%. The LME closed at $2941 per ton, down 0.49%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.2 million tons to 60 million tons on December 22. The Fed's expected rate cut next year is fermenting, and the LME aluminum reached a new high this year. The domestic aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to the fluctuating inventory [8] Group 5: Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2508 yuan/ton on Monday, down 1.18%. The spot alumina national average price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short - term, and the alumina price will continue to be under pressure [9] Group 6: Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21290 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.66%. The raw material scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply decreased slightly due to environmental protection and cost - profit factors. The consumption is stable, and the cast aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Group 7: Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The social inventory increased to 12.45 million tons. The 11 - month zinc concentrate imports increased by 13.84% year - on - year and 52.27% month - on - month. The overall zinc price is expected to oscillate due to mixed Fed officials' views, changes in imports and exports, and consumption and supply factors [11][12] Group 8: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated weakly on Monday. The social inventory decreased to 2.02 million tons. Near the end of the year, the supply and demand of the lead industry are both weak. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation [13][14] Group 9: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The 11 - month tin concentrate imports increased significantly, especially from Myanmar. The supply is expected to improve, and the tin price has a high - level adjustment risk [15][16] Group 10: Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon oscillated on Monday. The supply in Xinjiang is at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest is weak. The demand is mainly for historical orders. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate narrowly [17][18] Group 11: Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The five major steel products' production and apparent demand adjusted slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to oscillate mainly, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of the price rebound [19] Group 12: Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased this week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is weak due to steel mills' production cuts and the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Group 13: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated on Monday. The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, reducing coking profits and weakening the procurement of raw coal. The coking coal supply is generally stable. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [21] Group 14: Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.18%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.56%. The US soybean export sales are still slow, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The domestic rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [22][23] Group 15: Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.94% on Monday. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the export demand improved. The domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly. The palm oil price is expected to stop falling and enter an oscillating state in the short - term [24][25]