It's been a whirlwind for stocks over the past month. Since the Club's last Monthly Meeting on Nov. 13, Wall Street has navigated concerns around valuations for AI-related stocks and speculation about the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. Wednesday was a pivotal day. In the afternoon, the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point cut after its last policy meeting of the year. After the close, Oracle earnings print and commentary added to artificial intelligence worries. Still, as of Thursday's close, the S & ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, reflecting the current market conditions of these two industries. For glass, it shows the price changes of different regions and contracts, as well as the profit and sales conditions; for soda ash, it shows the price, profit, and inventory changes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Data**: - The prices of 5mm glass in different regions have different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm glass in Hubei decreased by 40 from November 19th to November 26th, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of FG05 and FG01 contracts increased, with FG05 rising by 30 and FG01 rising by 28 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Profit Data**: - The profits of glass production in different regions and with different energy sources also changed. For example, the profit of 05FG gas decreased by 6.3, and the profit of 01FG gas decreased by 4.2 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Sales and Inventory Data**: - The sales of glass in Shahe were strong, with a sales rate of 161, while the sales in Hubei and other regions were relatively weak [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - The prices of heavy soda ash in different regions had different changes. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai decreased by 30 from November 19th to November 26th, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts decreased, with SA05 decreasing by 16, SA01 decreasing by 7, and SA09 decreasing by 16 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Profit Data**: - The profits of soda ash production in different regions and with different production methods increased. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda increased by 39.5, and the profit of North China combined - soda increased by 34.9 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of the soda ash industry's mid - upstream decreased [2].

Market Overview - The broader equity markets have experienced a sharp uptrend, reaching an all-time high, driven by a solid start to the earnings season despite ongoing government shutdown concerns [1] - Investors are optimistic that the government shutdown will have minimal impact on the U.S. economy, allowing the stock market to progress [1] Federal Reserve and Investment Strategy - Investors anticipate that current market conditions will not prevent another rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [2] - A "wait-and-see" approach is being adopted by investors, focusing on "cash cow" stocks that offer higher returns [2] Importance of Return on Equity (ROE) - ROE is a critical financial metric that helps investors identify profit-generating companies and assess their financial health [3][4] - A high ROE indicates effective cash reinvestment at high rates of return, distinguishing strong companies from weaker ones [3][4] Stock Screening Parameters - Stocks are screened based on criteria including Cash Flow greater than $1 billion and ROE greater than the industry average [5] - Additional metrics include Price/Cash Flow lower than the industry average and Return on Assets (ROA) greater than the industry average [6] Selected Stocks with High ROE - The TJX Companies, Host Hotels, Corning, Banco Bilbao, and AppLovin are highlighted for their strong profitability and high ROE [7] - The TJX Companies has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 9.7% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4% [9] - Host Hotels has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.5% and operates luxury hotels under premium brands [11] - Corning has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 18.2% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7% [12] - Banco Bilbao has a long-term earnings growth expectation of 10.3% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.4% [13] - AppLovin boasts a long-term earnings growth expectation of 20% and a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.4% [14]

Report Title - South China Glass and Soda Ash Data Weekly Report 20250426 [2] Core Views - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure due to weak demand and high mid - upstream inventory. The price may continue to be under pressure, and short - term fluctuations may increase. Variables such as ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement need to be tracked [3][4]. - For soda ash, although there will be more maintenance in May, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a long - term surplus. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. Demand has a slight improvement, but there is a risk of the photovoltaic industry returning to an over - supply situation [5][6]. Glass Analysis Supply - At the end of April, the daily melting volume of glass may slightly decline to 156,000 tons. Three production lines are planned to shut down at the end of April, and one new line was ignited in April [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 heavy boxes (+0.61%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.25%. The inventory days are 29.4 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The inventory structure shows that upstream factory warehouses are accumulating inventory while mid - stream is reducing inventory [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are: - 153 yuan for natural gas, + 145 yuan for coal - made gas, and - 38 yuan for petroleum coke. The increase in the price of imported petroleum coke in Hubei has pushed up costs by 80 - 100 yuan [3]. Demand - As of April 15, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory of raw glass is 11.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [3]. Strategy - Due to weak demand and high inventory, the glass price has dropped significantly. Future price trends depend on ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [4]. Soda Ash Analysis Supply - The weekly production is 755,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 17,800 tons), including 339,100 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 5,300 tons) and 416,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 12,500 tons). Maintenance is expected to increase in May [5]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.691 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,300 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 338,500 tons (a decrease of 44,700 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.0295 million tons, with a total de - stocking of 180,000 - 190,000 tons from March to April [5]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of double - ton soda ash by the combined soda process is + 255.5 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is 17.5 yuan/ton. Profits have improved week - on - week due to the decline in raw material prices [5]. Demand - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is increasing, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash inferred from float and photovoltaic glass has improved. However, the photovoltaic industry may return to an over - supply situation after the end of the rush - installation period [6]. Strategy - From May, maintenance is expected to increase, and supply disturbances will also increase. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. The overall supply - demand pattern remains in long - term surplus, and price fluctuations may increase [6].