分红险运行的底层逻辑及市场竞争优势 20251228 摘要 分红型保险通过利润分配、投资平滑机制和特别储备账户，实现风险共 担和收益共享，增强客户信任度，并灵活应对市场变化。其红利主要来 源于死差、利差和费差，并受监管约束以确保长期利益一致性。 红利实现率是衡量分红险非保障利益的关键指标，计算方式包括销售演 示红利、保单销售演示利益减去预定利率以及客户收益率。新老产品因 预定利率差异（2.5% vs 2.0%）导致红利实现率显著不同，但客户实 际收益需综合考虑保证利率。 与银行理财相比，分红型保险在长期持有资产方面表现出色，尤其是在 个人养老金领域。尽管银行理财普遍被认为更安全，但分红险的长期属 性优势使其在收益方面更具竞争力。 预定利率下调促使保险公司增加权益类资产配置，理论上可提高长期投 资收益，从而提升客户整体收益。同时，预定利率下调减轻了保险公司 的刚兑压力，为其主动配置权益资产提供了更大空间。 2025 年分红意见函旨在防止过度竞争，对高分红设定条件，如投资表 现良好、经营时间长、特别储备账户为正等。新规缩小了非风险型与普 通型寿险的预定利率差异，通过杠杆效应提升了非风险型寿险的吸引力。 Q&A 分 ...

大鱼测评第1503篇原创 随着近两年市场利率下降，保险预定利率来到了固定利益型产品2%和分红型产品1.75%水平，两者利率差仅为0.25%的情况下，各家保险公司储蓄类产品 的重心来到分红险产品上，老牌保险公司们也不例外。 作为内地保险市场上体量最大的"老七家"——中国人寿，平安人寿，太保寿险，泰康人寿，新华保险，太平人寿和人保寿险，今年总共推出了15款分红型 增额终身寿险，其中太保寿险产品最多，总共有5款分红型增额终身寿险，其余6家公司每家以1-2款产品为主。 目前可查询数据中，15款中，演示预定利率最高的两款分别是太保寿险的鑫福相伴传世版3.75%，和新华保险的盛世荣耀庆典版3.9%，其余已知数据的， 基本为3.5%演示利率。 今天我们就来盘一盘，在同样的保底预定利率和不同演示预定利率下的"老七家"15款产品，实际利益到底表现如何，我们以30岁女性年交10万为例，来具 体看一下趸交、5年交、6年交和10年交的数据情况，每家保险公司我们挑选各缴费期下最好的1款产品放入对比表。 涉及的15款产品有： 中国人寿-鑫越传家庆典版 中国人寿-臻耀传家2025 平安人寿-一生中意福享版 太平人寿-国威一号 平安人寿-盛 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant shift towards dividend insurance products, which are becoming the dominant market force as companies adapt to a low-interest-rate environment and seek to mitigate risks associated with interest rate spreads [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Major insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An Life, Sunshine Life, and Xinhua Insurance have launched new dividend insurance products, marking a transition from traditional fixed-return savings products to floating-return products [2][3]. - Dividend insurance products, characterized by a dual structure of guaranteed and floating returns, are increasingly favored due to their ability to meet consumer demand for stable long-term returns in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory guidance is pushing the industry towards floating-return products, as highlighted in the State Council's opinions on enhancing regulation and promoting high-quality development in the insurance sector [3][4]. - The recent regulatory framework emphasizes the need for insurance companies to maintain sustainable dividend levels through prudent long-term investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Product Complexity and Competitiveness - The complexity of dividend insurance products requires higher professional standards from insurance agents, as they must effectively communicate the uncertainties associated with dividend payouts to clients [4][5]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on differentiating their products through innovative design and value-added services, creating a competitive landscape that extends beyond mere interest rate comparisons [6][8]. Group 4: Service Integration - Insurance companies are integrating their products with healthcare and elderly care services, enhancing customer value through comprehensive service ecosystems [6][7]. - For instance, Sunshine Life's dividend insurance product offers access to premium medical resources and tailored elderly care services, reflecting a shift towards a more holistic approach to customer needs [7][8]. Group 5: Investment Performance - The performance of dividend insurance products is closely tied to the investment outcomes of the insurance companies, with established firms demonstrating superior long-term investment capabilities [5][6]. - Sunshine Insurance, for example, reported significant growth in net investment income and total investment returns, indicating a strong ability to deliver on dividend promises [5].

Core Insights - The continuous decline in bank deposit rates and the corresponding decrease in the guaranteed interest rates of life insurance products have highlighted the advantages of participating insurance products, which offer a combination of guaranteed and floating returns [1][4] - Participating insurance is characterized as a "lightly guaranteed" product, meeting consumer demands for safety and returns while alleviating concerns about interest rate spreads for insurance companies, leading to its strong promotion by major insurers [1][4] Industry Trends - As of September, the insurance industry introduced 299 new personal life insurance products (excluding short-term products), with 125 being participating insurance, accounting for 41.8% of new offerings [3] - In the first three quarters of the year, a total of 607 new personal life insurance products were launched, with 275 being participating insurance, indicating a significant concentration of new products in September [3] Regulatory Changes - Starting September 1, the guaranteed interest rates for life insurance products were further reduced, marking the entry into the "2.0 era," which has diminished the competitiveness of traditional savings-type products and compelled insurers to increase the supply of participating insurance [4] - The adjustment exhibited an "asymmetric" characteristic, with traditional and universal insurance rates reduced by 50 basis points (BP), while participating insurance was only reduced by 25 BP, narrowing the gap between traditional and participating insurance rates [4] Company Strategies - Companies like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance are shifting their product structures towards participating insurance, with Ping An's CEO predicting that participating insurance will account for over 50% of their overall sales in the future [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, major insurers reported significant premium income from participating insurance, with Ping An Life, China Pacific Life, New China Life, and PICC Life achieving revenues of 49.92 billion, 37.299 billion, 18.269 billion, and 11.417 billion respectively [5] Consumer Awareness - Despite the growing interest in participating insurance, consumer awareness remains relatively low, with many consumers still needing to adapt to the concept of floating returns [6][7] - Experts suggest that insurers should enhance product promotion and customer education to clarify the sources of dividends, distribution mechanisms, and risk characteristics of participating insurance [7] Product Selection Criteria - Consumers often focus on the dividend realization rate when selecting products, which is the ratio of actual non-guaranteed dividends distributed to the projected non-guaranteed dividends [8] - However, relying solely on the dividend realization rate may not accurately reflect potential returns, as a higher realization rate does not guarantee higher actual dividends [8]

Core Viewpoint - The average dividend realization rate for the life insurance industry in 2024 is 61.7%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improvements in the management and expectation guidance of participating insurance products [3][4]. Dividend Realization Rate Analysis - As of September 10, 2024, 76 life insurance companies reported 3,357 participating insurance products, with 12 products having a realization rate of zero, 2,726 products (81.2%) below 100%, 256 products (7.6%) achieving 100%, and 363 products (10.8%) exceeding 100% [3][4]. - The realization rate reflects the insurance company's ability to fulfill non-guaranteed dividends, serving as a key indicator of investment management effectiveness and operational transparency [4]. Improving Dividend Realization Rates - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice on August 2, 2024, emphasizing the need for insurance companies to balance demonstration benefits with realization rates [6]. - The relationship between demonstration benefits and realization rates is crucial, where demonstration benefits are based on hypothetical investment scenarios, while realization rates reflect actual performance [8][9]. - To enhance realization rates, companies must set reasonable demonstration rates and improve investment capabilities, especially for already sold policies [11]. Evaluation Criteria for Life Insurance Companies - Long-term assessment of realization rates should consider historical data, stability of dividend policies, and the company's long-term investment returns [13]. - Companies should maintain a safe solvency margin and healthy risk ratings, focusing on those with stable operations [13]. - Currently, 42 companies meet the criteria set by "13精," with New China Life Insurance leading in average realization rates for 2024 [14]. New China Life Insurance Performance - New China Life Insurance reported an average realization rate of 156.1% over the past five years, ranking first among 27 companies [15]. - In 2024, 80 participating insurance products were disclosed, with 63 products achieving or exceeding a 100% realization rate, reflecting strong investment return capabilities [17]. - The company has shown excellent long-term investment returns, with an average total investment return rate of 5.1% from 2015 to 2024, and total assets reaching 1.78 trillion yuan, indicating robust market validation of its investment capabilities [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry has seen a significant recovery in the dividend realization rate for participating insurance products in 2024, with many products achieving or exceeding 100% realization rates, contrasting with the general decline observed in the previous year [1][5]. Summary of 2024 Dividend Realization Rate Disclosure - As of September 2, 2024, 74 life insurance companies have disclosed the dividend realization rates for 3,319 participating insurance products, with an overall realization rate of 61.8%, an increase of 10.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][7]. - The increase in the dividend realization rate is primarily attributed to new products launched after the regulatory changes, which have a realization rate of 107.0%, compared to 54.3% for older products [7][8]. Factors Influencing Dividend Realization Rate - The realization rate is influenced by various factors, including the sales demonstration rate and the predetermined interest rate. Lower sales demonstration rates lead to higher realization rates under the same customer yield conditions [12][14]. - The average customer yield for participating insurance products in 2024 is 3.2%, remaining stable year-on-year, with new products yielding 3.1% and older products yielding 3.2% [18][20]. Evaluation of Life Insurance Companies' Dividend Strength - The evaluation of a life insurance company's dividend strength should consider long-term perspectives on realization rates, long-term investment returns, solvency ratios, and overall operational stability [23][25]. - Only 5 out of 38 companies met the criteria for having an average customer yield above 3.5% in 2024, indicating a competitive landscape [29]. Case Study: Zhongyi Life Insurance - Zhongyi Life Insurance reported a dividend realization rate of 88.8% for its participating insurance products in 2024, ranking among the top five companies in the analyzed group [31]. - The company has maintained a strong solvency ratio, with a core solvency ratio of 166% and a comprehensive solvency ratio of 212%, significantly above regulatory thresholds [32][36]. - Zhongyi Life's investment management arm has achieved an average total investment return of 5.56% over the past decade, showcasing its robust investment capabilities [36].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant recovery in the dividend realization rate for participating insurance products, with many new products launched in 2024 achieving or exceeding a 100% realization rate [1]. Group 1: Dividend Realization Rates - As of September 1, 2024, 73 life insurance companies have reported the dividend realization rates for 3,285 participating insurance products, with a notable increase in overall rates [2]. - The average dividend realization rate for new products launched after the regulatory notice on August 2, 2024, is 106.8%, while older products have an average realization rate of 53.8% [3][4]. - Despite older products not reaching a 100% realization rate, their customer yield stands at 3.2% [3]. Group 2: Selection Criteria for Participating Insurance Products - Consumers are advised to focus on companies with a long-term stable dividend policy and strong operational capabilities, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The regulatory guidance emphasizes that companies with high risks and negative reserves must justify their dividend levels [4]. Group 3: Evaluation of Insurance Companies - The evaluation of life insurance companies' dividend strength should consider long-term realization rates, historical data, investment returns, solvency ratios, and overall operational stability [7]. - A company like AIA Life has demonstrated strong performance, with new products achieving a realization rate of 143.0%, significantly above the industry average [8][11]. Group 4: AIA Life's Performance - AIA Life's 90 older products have an average realization rate of 74.2%, outperforming the industry average of 53.8% by 20.6 percentage points [11]. - The company has maintained a robust solvency ratio of 410% and has received the highest AAA risk rating for four consecutive quarters [13]. - AIA Life's future surplus ratio is 21.9%, ranking first among the 37 companies analyzed, indicating strong future profitability potential [15].

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment is prompting a new paradigm in wealth management for households, with a focus on "risk resistance, stable returns, and medium to long-term" investment strategies [1] Summary by Sections Dividend Insurance Products - As of late August, life insurance products will see a reduction in preset interest rates, leading to dividend insurance becoming the mainstream product type in September. These products offer a combination of "personal protection + guaranteed benefits + floating returns," attracting increasing attention due to their defensive and offensive characteristics [2] - When selecting dividend insurance products, past dividend realization rates and the investment capabilities of insurance companies are crucial reference indicators. Given the long-term nature of these products, the brand strength, service quality, and operational capabilities of state-owned large insurance companies are significant advantages [2] Importance of Dividend Realization Rate - Dividend insurance refers to life insurance products where the insurance company distributes a portion of its surplus earnings to policyholders. By regulation, insurance companies must allocate at least 70% of the distributable surplus to policyholders annually [4] - The yield from dividend insurance consists of "guaranteed + dividends," where guaranteed returns are fixed and specified in the contract, while the dividend portion is variable and depends on the company's performance. The floating dividend is key to the competitiveness of these products, with the realization rate being a critical metric [4] - The dividend realization rate is defined as "actual distributed dividend amount / projected dividend amount," indicating the extent to which projected benefits are realized. A realization rate above 100% means actual dividends exceed projections. For instance, Xinhua Insurance reported that over 60 products had a realization rate exceeding 100% for 2024, with an average of 152% for guaranteed dividend products [4] Investment Capability - The dividends from these products are derived from the management of the insurance company, making investment and operational management critical. Consumers should consider the insurance company's strength and professionalism, particularly its long-term stable operations and investment performance [6] - Xinhua Insurance has maintained a steady average total investment return of 5.13% from 2014 to 2024, with a comprehensive investment return of 8.5% in 2024. The company emphasizes enhancing investment capabilities and aligning with national strategies for long-term returns [7] Active Investment Strategies - In 2024, Xinhua Insurance has taken a leading role in investing insurance funds, participating in the establishment of the Honghu Fund to promote value investment. The company has actively invested in the elderly care and health industries, acquiring stakes in quality listed companies [8] - Xinhua Insurance focuses on balancing risk and returns in its asset allocation for dividend insurance, continuously optimizing its diversified strategies to create stable long-term investment returns for policyholders [8] Service Capability and Comprehensive Strength - Since 2025, Xinhua Insurance has enhanced its dividend insurance product offerings, introducing competitive products that emphasize wealth management and retirement functions. The company has also integrated various high-value products to meet diverse customer needs [10] - The company's comprehensive service capabilities, centered on customer needs, enhance product value. Xinhua Insurance provides a full-cycle service system covering institutional and home-based elderly care, integrating various services for a one-stop solution [10] - In the first seven months of 2025, Xinhua Insurance achieved a premium income of 137.8 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, and processed 2.41 million claims totaling 7.3 billion yuan [10] Future Outlook - With robust operational performance and growth momentum, Xinhua Insurance has been listed in the 2025 Fortune Global 500. The company aims to achieve higher levels of development, focusing on insurance, asset management, and service ecosystems to contribute to the well-being of the public [11]

Group 1 - Major insurance companies in China, including China Life, Xinhua Insurance, and Ping An Life, have reported significant increases in their dividend insurance annual bonus realization rates compared to last year [1] - The overall trend shows a recovery in bonus realization rates, with many existing "old products" seeing increases from 25% to 35% and from around 35% to over 40% or even 50% [1] - Several products have surpassed a 100% bonus realization rate, a stark contrast to the previous year when very few products achieved this level [1] Group 2 - Differentiated adjustment levels are expected to drive the industry towards a full transition to dividend insurance, which has lower guaranteed costs and allows for flexible bonus distribution based on investment performance [2] - Insurance companies view the shift to dividend insurance as a strategic move to mitigate "interest spread loss" risks, accelerating the transition across the industry [2] - Many insurance firms plan to actively promote the launch and sales of dividend insurance products during the upcoming transition from old to new products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dividend realization rate of various insurance companies has shown a year-on-year increase, with many products exceeding 100%, a significant improvement compared to the previous year when few products achieved this level [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Realization Rate Trends - Multiple insurance companies, including China Life, New China Life, and Ping An Life, have reported their latest dividend realization rates, indicating a notable recovery in these rates compared to last year [2]. - For instance, New China Life reported that 56 out of 59 participating dividend products achieved a dividend realization rate of 100%, with an average of 152% [2]. - The increase in dividend realization rates is attributed to rising investment returns and the relaxation of the "high limit" policy for dividend insurance [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Shift Towards Dividend Insurance - The insurance industry is accelerating its transition towards dividend insurance, driven by a lower guaranteed interest rate cap and the need to mitigate "interest spread loss" risks [4]. - The latest research indicates that the preset interest rate for life insurance is now 1.99%, with adjustments leading to a reduction in the upper limit for guaranteed rates [4]. - Companies are aiming for a significant increase in the proportion of dividend insurance products, with one leading insurer targeting at least 30% of its business portfolio to be dividend insurance by 2025 [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Insurers with strong investment performance and substantial special reserves for dividends are expected to have greater flexibility in offering higher dividends, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [5][6]. - The long-term sustainability of dividend insurance will be tested on both liability and asset sides, requiring insurers to balance dividend distribution with future expectations and operational performance [6].