Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, while the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. The main spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and delivery profits emerged in Jiangsu and Lanshan, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts from Jiangsu Huihong (Taicang Xinhai Port) were added, with a total of 513 warehouse receipts. The rising futures price created hedging profit margins, stimulating new warehouse receipt generation. With only 4 trading days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is anchored in Chongqing's 6 - meter medium - A logs, with a delivery cost of about 770 yuan/cubic meter. There is also a nearly risk - free arbitrage space, and it's possible that new ships will be sent to Chongqing for delivery [3]. - The current price also shows hedging profits in Jiangsu and Shandong. Given the off - season demand and difficult spot sales, the arbitrage window will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers seize this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log imports and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 800 - 785, and buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14. They can also buy put options and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 750 - 800. They can also sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, and the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts were added, with a total of 513. The rising futures price led to hedging profits and new warehouse receipt generation. With 4 days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is about 770 yuan/cubic meter in Chongqing. There is an arbitrage space, and new ships may be sent to Chongqing for delivery. Hedging profits also exist in Jiangsu and Shandong, which will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Industrial customers are advised to focus on this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis (after conversion) of various log specifications at different ports on June 24, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after an 8% volume increase minus the main contract price plus or minus the premium/discount [8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 335 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the daily average log outbound volume from ports was 6.36 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1, and the spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Log Month - Spread Structure - The report presents the closing prices of different log futures contracts (lg07m.dce, lg09m.dce, lg11m.dce) on the current day, the previous day, and the previous week [11]. Spot Price Seasonality - The report shows the seasonal trends of spot prices for different log specifications at different ports from 2022 - 2025 [12][15][17]