Ese es el corte. Uno sentía tristeza cuando veía estas imágenes. Entonces, los que generalmente más se benefician son realmente los maderos, ¿no.vienen vinculados a alguna extorsión y tienen plata y y las comunidades algunos dicen, "No, pero hay mucha presión, han habido amenazas, fallecidos incluso." No, no, no existe ninguna carretera en la Amazonía que beneficie. No existe. Eso es una trampa.Creo que creo que podemos ir rápido. Están vigilando. Atrás están.saying there's some potential danger being here. ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, while the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. The main spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and delivery profits emerged in Jiangsu and Lanshan, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts from Jiangsu Huihong (Taicang Xinhai Port) were added, with a total of 513 warehouse receipts. The rising futures price created hedging profit margins, stimulating new warehouse receipt generation. With only 4 trading days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is anchored in Chongqing's 6 - meter medium - A logs, with a delivery cost of about 770 yuan/cubic meter. There is also a nearly risk - free arbitrage space, and it's possible that new ships will be sent to Chongqing for delivery [3]. - The current price also shows hedging profits in Jiangsu and Shandong. Given the off - season demand and difficult spot sales, the arbitrage window will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. - It is recommended that industrial customers seize this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log imports and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 800 - 785, and buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14. They can also buy put options and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 750 - 800. They can also sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price [2]. Core Contradictions - The 07 main contract decreased by 2093 lots, closing at 806.5, down 1.47%, and the 09 contract increased by 867 lots, closing at 794.5, down 0.69%. The 7 - 9 month spread dropped to 12. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened [3]. - 100 new warehouse receipts were added, with a total of 513. The rising futures price led to hedging profits and new warehouse receipt generation. With 4 days left until delivery, the capital game is intense [3]. - The lowest deliverable warehouse receipt cost is about 770 yuan/cubic meter in Chongqing. There is an arbitrage space, and new ships may be sent to Chongqing for delivery. Hedging profits also exist in Jiangsu and Shandong, which will stimulate more hedging demand [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Industrial customers are advised to focus on this hedging opportunity, while non - industrial customers should stay on the sidelines to avoid risks caused by low liquidity and large price fluctuations near the delivery date [4]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis (after conversion) of various log specifications at different ports on June 24, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after an 8% volume increase minus the main contract price plus or minus the premium/discount [8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the port inventory in China was 335 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The port inventories in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, 2025, the daily average log outbound volume from ports was 6.36 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The daily average outbound volumes in Shandong and Jiangsu also increased [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1, and the spruce import profit was - 77 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Log Month - Spread Structure - The report presents the closing prices of different log futures contracts (lg07m.dce, lg09m.dce, lg11m.dce) on the current day, the previous day, and the previous week [11]. Spot Price Seasonality - The report shows the seasonal trends of spot prices for different log specifications at different ports from 2022 - 2025 [12][15][17]