Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. The supply factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Demand**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. The demand factor is considered bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The inventory factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, log prices are below the delivery cost, with a low valuation. The valuation factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals of log spot prices continued to weaken, and spot prices dropped to the lowest level of the year. The outer - market quotes in December had a large span, with a median of $116. The shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. Overall, log futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Futures Position**: As of December 5th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,907 lots, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 15,277 lots, an 8.2% decrease from the previous week [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5th, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/750/850 yuan/m³ and 730/770/940 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/800 yuan/m³ and 730/760/840 yuan/m³ respectively [16]. Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [20]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs were directly shipped from New Zealand to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [26]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between $112 - $119/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about $111/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.986 million cubic meters, a 3.83% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 850,900 cubic meters, a 2.30% increase from the previous week. The radiation pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a 12.50% decrease from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory remained the same as the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 30,400 cubic meters, a 15.32% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 26,200 cubic meters, an 11.02% increase from the previous week [37]. - **Timber Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 5th, 2025, the timber square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the timber square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery-grade 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 755 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 755 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9-meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 855 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9-meter 30+ radiata pine decreased by 5 yuan/cubic meter to 780 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - As of November 9, there were 11 vessels departing from New Zealand in November, with 10 bound for mainland China and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8]. - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2658 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 5,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 346,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 42,400 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's was about 254,600 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 55,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 214,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 15,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 2,125 points, an increase of 21 points (+1.0%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was recorded at 819 points, an increase of 1.1% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,451.38 points, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has recently remained around 99 - 100. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.098, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 9, 11 vessels departed from New Zealand in November, with 10 going to mainland China and 1 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with partial unloading. It is expected that about 11 vessels will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.37 million cubic meters in November [5][8] - A table shows the detailed information of New Zealand log vessel schedules, including departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [9] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 1,300 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 11,000 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports (Lanshan, Taicang, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu) was 2.0808 million cubic meters, an increase of 7,100 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] - A table provides detailed inventory and shipment data of domestic main ports, including inventory and shipment volume at different time points and changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 14, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 788.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The main contract on the futures market rebounded this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads (in absolute value) tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 7 yuan/cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 21.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter [18] 3.4 Other - As of the week of November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,125 points (+1.0% week-on-week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 819 points (+1.1% week-on-week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,451.38 points (+3.6% week-on-week). The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.098 (-0.34% week-on-week), and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.0% to 1.759 [6][50] - A table presents the changes in freight rates and exchange rates, including the Baltic freight index, container shipping index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and RMB, and the US dollar and New Zealand dollar, compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [49]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]