Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]