Core Insights - The global PC market is projected to grow 2.1% year-over-year in 2025, with a CAGR of 0.4% from 2025 to 2029, reaching 422.6 million units by 2029 [1] - The demand for AI-powered PCs and the end-of-service for Microsoft Windows 10 in October 2025 are significant growth catalysts [3] Company Analysis: Apple - Apple's Mac business is experiencing strong demand for its M4 chip series, with new product launches enhancing its portfolio [3] - In Q1 2025, Apple gained market share, reaching 8.7%, a 70 basis point increase year-over-year, with shipments growing 14.1% to 5.5 million units [4] - The global availability of Apple Intelligence through macOS Sequoia 15.4 updates in multiple languages is expected to positively impact Mac's market prospects [5] - The consensus estimate for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings has decreased by 0.8% to $7.12 per share, indicating a 5.48% growth over fiscal 2024 [10] - Apple has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 4.68% over the last four quarters [11] - Year-to-date, Apple shares have declined by 17.1% [12] - Apple's valuation is considered stretched, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 7.60X, resulting in a Value Score of D [14] Company Analysis: HP - HP is focusing on the growing interest in Generative AI-enabled PCs, forecasting that 40-60% of all PCs will be AI PCs within three years [6] - In Q1 2025, HP's market share was 20.2%, a 20 basis point increase year-over-year, with shipments growing 6.1% to 12.8 million units [8] - The consensus estimate for HP's fiscal 2026 earnings is $3.39 per share, down 1.7% over the past 30 days, indicating a slight increase of 0.3% over fiscal 2025 [9] - HP's earnings have lagged consensus estimates three times in the past four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 1.16% [11] - Year-to-date, HP shares have dropped by 11.2% [12] - HP shares are trading at a lower valuation compared to Apple, with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 0.51X and a Value Score of B [14] Conclusion - Apple's strong Mac portfolio and product innovations position it favorably in the market, while HP's reliance on China for manufacturing presents significant risks [17] - Apple is rated as a stronger investment option compared to HP, which has a weaker rating [17]

根据 Counterpoint Research初步数据 ，2025年Q1全球PC出货量同比增长6.7%，达6,140万台。增长 主要受PC厂商赶在美国加征关税前加速出货，以及Windows 10终止支持背景下AI PC加速普及的推 动。但这一增长可能难以持续，预计库存水平将在未来数周趋于稳定。美国关税政策或将抑制2025 年的增长势头。 分析师观点 Counterpoint 高级分析师William Li 指出："未来竞争格局将取决于OEM厂商三方面能力：供应链 和生产基地多元化布局、构建从芯片到软件再到模型供应商的关键生态系统合作，以及提供最佳 AI PC体验。" 全球PC制造业仍高度集中于中国，短期内行业化解关税风险面临重大挑战。尽管美国近期对笔记本 电脑的豁免取消了部分关税，但随着特朗普政府计划下季度对半导体等科技产品加征新关税，不确 定性持续存在。预计笔记本ODM（原始设计制造商）和EMS（电子制造服务）厂商将继续加速将产 能从中国转移至越南、印度和墨西哥等国，尽管这些国家也面临不同程度关税。我们认为PC厂商的 首要任务是将所有销往美国市场的产品生产线转移至中国境外。 总体而言，2025年美国关税政 ...

根据 Counterpoint Research初步数据 ，2025年Q1全球PC出货量同比增长6.7%，达6,140万台。增长 主要受PC厂商赶在美国加征关税前加速出货，以及Windows 10终止支持背景下AI PC加速普及的推 动。但这一增长可能难以持续，预计库存水平将在未来数周趋于稳定。美国关税政策或将抑制2025 年的增长势头。 全球主要PC厂商2025年Q1出货量（单位：百万台） 数据来源：Counterpoint Research 2025年Q1全球PC市场出货量同比增长6.7%，主要受美国关税预期提前拉货及AI PC加速普及的推 动。 Apple和Lenovo出货量同比增幅超10%，表现优于其他品牌，进一步强化了头部品牌在市场中的主 导地位。 全球PC制造业产能仍高度集中于中国，短期内行业应对关税风险面临重大挑战。 美国关税政策导致PC行业不确定性增加，可能抑制AI PC的增长势头。 Apple和Lenovo本季度表现强劲，主要得益于新产品发布和市场动态。Apple出货量同比增长17%， 由搭载AI功能M4芯片的MacBook系列驱动；Lenovo 11%的增长则源于其AI PC产品线的扩展和 ...