报告导读： 2025 年计算机业绩预告中，正向增长公司占比过半，呈现增长与下滑并存的 两极分化格局，利润端改善强于营收端，高增长主要集中在硬件与 AI 应用相关方向。 中位数数据显示， 2025 年计算机公司 利润表现优于营收 。 根据统计， 238 家发布业绩预告的公司中，仅 70 家发布营收数据，营收增速的中位数为 0.97% 。归母净利润增速的中 位数为 1 7.83% ；扣非净利润增速的中位数为 28.68% 。总体而言，利润增速高于营收增速。此外，大市值公司在业绩区间 统计中更偏向增长端，在四季度业绩确定性相对更强。 2025 年计算机行业业绩正向占比过半， 增长与下滑两极分化 。 根据申万行业分类， 358 家计算机公司中发布业绩预告 238 家，占比达到了 66.5% 。根 据预计归母净利润同比增长中位数划分： 30%+ 共有 103 家，占 42.9% ； 10%~30% 27 家，占 11.3% ； 0~10% 12 家，占 5.0% ； 0~-10% 6 家，占 2.5% ； -10%~-30% 3 家，占 1.3% ； -30%+ 87 家，占 36.3% 。整体呈现"两头大、中间小"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant commercial opportunities emerging. Major players like NVIDIA and Eli Lilly are investing heavily in AI drug development, while domestic companies like Ant Group are promoting AI health management products [5][13][14]. - Alibaba's Qianwen app has transitioned into the "AI service era," integrating over 400 AI service functions and achieving over 100 million monthly active users, showcasing the potential for AI applications in enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of building a self-sufficient and efficient computing infrastructure in response to increasing global competition and the exponential growth of AI application demands [16]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Healthcare - The AI healthcare sector is at a commercial inflection point, with significant investments from both domestic and international companies. Key areas of growth include AI drug development, medical imaging analysis, and personal health management, which are expected to see increased investment value as clinical validation and regulatory frameworks improve [5][14]. Development of AI Ecosystem - Domestic tech giants are rapidly advancing their AI ecosystems, leveraging their large user bases and data resources. This integration is expected to enhance service delivery and operational efficiency across various sectors [15][16]. Market Performance - The computer sector index rose by 3.82% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, indicating positive market sentiment [8]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies for investment consideration, including: - AI Computing: Cambrian (688256.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Inspur Information (000977.SZ), and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) [6][17]. - Vertical AI Applications: Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), Hand Information (300170.SZ), and others [6][17].

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) is historically one of the best-performing stocks in January, despite a poor performance in 2025, where it ended the year with a 20.7% deficit [1]. Performance Analysis - Over the last decade, Salesforce has averaged a 7.9% return in December, with an 80% monthly win rate, making it the fourth best performer among the S&P 500 stocks [2]. - Currently, Salesforce's stock is trading at $266.58, with a potential to reach its highest level since May if it breaks past the resistance at $270 [3]. January Performance Data - In the last 10 years, Salesforce has shown an average return of 7.86% in January, with a median return of 8.89% and an 80% probability of a positive return [4]. Options Market Sentiment - The options market shows a bearish sentiment towards Salesforce, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.04, indicating a high level of pessimism that could reverse and support a seasonal rally [4]. - Salesforce's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 27%, ranking in the 9th percentile of the last 12 months, suggesting that options are currently very affordable [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the computer industry and an "Accumulate" rating for Hongsoft Technology (688088) [28] Core Insights - The approval for NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China is expected to alleviate some supply constraints faced by domestic cloud computing companies [12] - Alibaba has established the Qianwen C-end business group, aiming to create a "super app" that serves as the primary entry point for users in the AI era [12] - Baidu is evaluating the spin-off and IPO of Kunlun Chip, with plans to submit an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as early as Q1 2026 [13] - The AI application sector is experiencing rapid growth, driven by major internet companies accelerating their C-end smart applications [27] - The AI computing power industry is expected to maintain high prosperity, supported by the maturation of the domestic computing power industry chain [27] Industry News - The U.S. government will allow NVIDIA to sell H200 AI chips to China, with shipments starting in 2024. The H200 chip is designed for training and running AI models and offers significant performance improvements over its predecessor [12] - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end business group aims to integrate various services into a single app, enhancing user accessibility to AI technologies [12] - Baidu's Kunlun Chip, which focuses on general AI chip design, has shown rapid business growth and is preparing for a potential IPO [13] Industry Data - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with specific configurations priced as follows: - V100-32GB*8 at 66.63 CNY/hour - A100-40GB*8 at 161.50 CNY/hour - A100-80GB*1 at 5.95 CNY/hour - A800-80GB*1 at 7.50 CNY/hour [14][15] Market Review - From December 4 to December 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.34%, while the Shenwan Computer Industry Index increased by 1.13%. Most sub-sectors within the computer industry saw gains, with vertical application software leading at 2.45% [20][21] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the growth potential of AI applications driven by technological advancements and market demand. It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][32]. Core Insights - Domestic technology giants are actively investing in supernode technology, presenting investment opportunities in domestic AI computing power [1][28]. - The SW computer sector has seen a cumulative decline of 2.64% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [10][13]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is currently at 55.36 times, placing it in the 88.40th percentile for the past five years and the 77.89th percentile for the past ten years [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW computer sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.64% from October 31 to November 13, 2025, and a decline of 3.73% in November, while it has increased by 20.45% year-to-date [10][13][28]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 55.36 times, indicating a high valuation relative to historical performance [20][22]. 3. Industry News - Key developments include the launch of the Kimi K2 Thinking model by Moonlight, the introduction of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card supernode by Inspur, and significant investments in AI infrastructure by companies like Tencent and Anthropic [21][23][28]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include equity transfer agreements and the establishment of joint ventures aimed at enhancing business strategies and market positions [24][25][26][27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the launch of the scaleX640 supernode by Inspur, which significantly enhances computing power and efficiency, and emphasizes the importance of collaborative efforts in the AI computing ecosystem [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [1][32]. Core Insights - Domestic technology giants are actively investing in supernode technology, presenting investment opportunities in domestic AI computing power [1][28]. - The SW computer sector has seen a cumulative decline of 2.64% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [10][13]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 55.36 times, placing it in the 88.40th percentile over the past five years and the 77.89th percentile over the past ten years [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW computer sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.64% from October 31 to November 13, 2025, and a decline of 3.73% in November, while it has increased by 20.45% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points [10][13][14]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 55.36 times, which is in the 88.40th percentile for the last five years and the 77.89th percentile for the last ten years [20][22]. 3. Industry News - Major developments include the launch of the Kimi K2 Thinking model by Moon's Dark Side, the introduction of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card supernode scaleX640 by Inspur, and Tencent's announcement of lower-than-expected capital expenditures for the year [21][23][28]. - Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in a data center in the U.S., while Baidu has released new Kunlun chips M100 and M300 for AI applications [21][23]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include a share transfer agreement by Jin Chengzi and a joint venture by Jin Yi Technology to establish a company focused on energy technology [24][25][27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the significance of the scaleX640 supernode, which enhances computing power and efficiency, and emphasizes the importance of domestic AI computing power investment opportunities [28][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of DeepSeek-OCR, a visual text compression model that utilizes optical compression technology for efficient parsing and cross-language processing of multimodal documents. This model is expected to significantly enhance data processing capabilities in various fields [2][5]. - DeepSeek-OCR achieves a compression ratio of 10:1 while maintaining 97% near-lossless decoding accuracy, showcasing its efficiency and performance in handling large volumes of data [5]. - The model's architecture includes a visual encoder (DeepEncoder) and a lightweight decoder (DeepSeek3B-MoE), which together optimize the processing of visual tokens, reducing computational overhead [5]. Industry Overview - The computer industry comprises 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 59,939.50 billion and a circulating market value of about 54,322.71 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has been 31.4%, while the relative performance against the benchmark has been 15.0% [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of DeepSeek-OCR in various application scenarios, including finance, education, legal, medical, e-commerce, security, industrial, and military sectors, indicating a broad market opportunity [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the AI industry, including domestic computing power providers and enterprise services across various applications [5]. - Key companies to watch include Alibaba, Cambricon, and Kingsoft Office, among others, across different sectors such as finance, education, and healthcare [5].

Core Insights - Microsoft and Apple are competing in the AI space, with Microsoft currently generating significant revenue from its Copilot AI, while Apple is enhancing its iPhones with new AI features [1][2] Company Overview - Microsoft has a market cap of $3.82 trillion, slightly higher than Apple's $3.67 trillion as of the latest close [1] - Both companies have established robust businesses that can leverage AI, with Microsoft focusing on business applications and Apple on consumer electronics [2] AI Growth Potential - Microsoft has a broader business scope, particularly in gaming, following its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, giving it an edge in growth potential [3] - Apple is expected to see a significant wave of upgrades once it successfully launches new AI features for its iPhones, which could drive business growth [4][7] Product Development and User Experience - Apple is taking a cautious approach to AI deployment, which may benefit user privacy and lead to a smoother rollout of features [5] - Microsoft has been quick to implement AI features, but there are concerns about user satisfaction in a competitive AI market [12] Valuation Comparison - The price-to-earnings multiples of Microsoft and Apple are currently almost identical, indicating a tie in valuation attractiveness [10] - Apple's stock was previously trading at a premium, but this trend reversed due to its exposure to manufacturing in China [10] Investment Recommendation - Apple is recommended as a buy due to its loyal customer base willing to upgrade for new features, despite a slower rollout of AI [11] - Microsoft's rapid deployment of AI features may lead to challenges in maintaining customer satisfaction amid increasing competition [12]

Group 1: Chip Collaboration - OpenAI and AMD have signed a multi-billion dollar chip deal to co-develop AI data centers based on AMD processors [1] - OpenAI commits to purchasing AI chips worth 6 gigawatts based on multiple generations of AMD Instinct GPUs [1] - The partnership aims to deepen collaboration on hardware and software since the MI300X and MI350X series, starting with the MI450 series [1] Group 2: Model Development - DeepSeek has released the experimental model DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which introduces Sparse Attention for improved training and inference efficiency on long texts [2] - The model development utilized TileLang, an open-source AI operator programming language developed by a team from Peking University [2] - Huawei Cloud and Cambricon announced Day0 adaptation for DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, supporting a maximum context length of 160K [2] Group 3: Application Advancements - OpenAI launched the next-generation video generation model Sora2, enhancing realistic video effects and adding audio generation capabilities [3] - The Dev Day event introduced several platform-level tools, including Apps SDK, Agent Kit, and Codex, aimed at creating a closed loop for development, distribution, and monetization [3] - Apps SDK allows developers to build interactive applications within ChatGPT, while Agent Kit focuses on backend development efficiency [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as AI computing power, applications, physical AI, AIGC, and anti-generative AI [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% on September 17, with 20 industries experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and automotive sectors, which increased by 2.55% and 2.05% respectively [1] - The computer industry saw a rise of 0.56%, despite a net outflow of 4.455 billion yuan in main funds [1] Computer Industry Analysis - In the computer sector, there are 335 stocks, with 160 rising and 168 falling, including one stock hitting the daily limit down [1] - Among the stocks with net inflows, 124 saw capital inflows, with 8 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan, led by Huijin Co. with a net inflow of 656 million yuan, followed by Tonghuashun and Yonyou Network with inflows of 455 million yuan and 265 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Huasheng Tiancai, Zhongke Shuguang, and Yanshan Technology, with outflows of 1.313 billion yuan, 916 million yuan, and 458 million yuan respectively [1][2] Top Gainers in Computer Sector - The top gainers in the computer sector included: - Huijin Co. with a gain of 19.82% and a turnover rate of 31.16% [1] - Tonghuashun with a gain of 3.83% and a turnover rate of 6.42% [1] - Yonyou Network with a gain of 3.95% and a turnover rate of 3.59% [1] Top Losers in Computer Sector - The top losers in the computer sector included: - Huasheng Tiancai with a decline of 3.58% and a turnover rate of 39.69% [2] - Zhongke Shuguang with a decline of 2.68% and a turnover rate of 8.12% [2] - Yanshan Technology with a decline of 2.38% and a turnover rate of 13.44% [2] ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (Product Code: 515170) has seen a decline of 1.80% over the past five days, with a PE ratio of 21.02 and a net outflow of 45.35 million yuan [4] - The Gaming ETF (Product Code: 159869) increased by 5.41% over the past five days, with a PE ratio of 46.38 and a net inflow of 23.64 million yuan [4] - The Semiconductor ETF (Product Code: 588170) rose by 9.23% over the past five days, with a net inflow of 1.69 million yuan [4] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF (Product Code: 516630) increased by 6.70% over the past five days, but experienced a net outflow of 289.8 thousand yuan [5]