Core Viewpoint - The current overseas computing power valuation is reasonable with potential for upward revision, while domestic computing power has significant long-term growth potential and performance expectations are being met [1] Historical Analysis of Technology Bull Markets - The article reviews past technology bull markets (2009-2010 consumer electronics, 2013-2015 gaming, and 2019-2021 lithium battery) to analyze the price performance characteristics during valuation expansion and profit-driven phases, providing a historical reference for the current AI industry chain [2][8] Valuation Expansion Phase Characteristics - During this phase, new technologies emerge without profit support, and industry and policy catalysts create imagination space, driving up valuations. Historical data shows that: - High levels of industry crowding are common, but short-term trading crowding does not affect the overall trend [3][15] - Risk premium effectively measures valuation boundaries, with significant reactions to positive news diminishing when the risk premium falls below a certain threshold [18] - High valuation ranges are sensitive to liquidity changes, with tightening liquidity potentially triggering adjustments [3][18] Profit-Driven Phase Characteristics - In this phase, exceeding profit expectations drives market performance, with historical examples showing: - The need to be cautious of competitive pressures and valuation constraints under endgame thinking [4][21] - Overcapitalization during profit upturns can lead to increased competition and excess capacity, negatively impacting profitability [22][25] Investment Recommendations - Overseas Computing Power: Currently in the profit-driven phase, with ROIC expected to continue rising until Q3 2025, and leading companies' valuations (PE-FY3) are reasonable at 20-30 times, indicating no bubble [5][26] - Domestic Computing Power: Significant long-term growth potential exists, with performance expectations being met and a systemic decline in risk-free rates acting as a catalyst for the next market phase [5][28] - AI Applications: Valuation is attractive, particularly in the internet and media sectors, although the timing and areas for breakout applications are uncertain [5][29]

Core Insights - The recent DNF carnival highlighted the evolution of IP (Intellectual Property) in the gaming industry, emphasizing a shift from a focus on broad entertainment to a more integrated ecosystem approach [1][6] - The value of IP in gaming has been redefined, moving from attracting new users to enhancing the experience for existing players [6][8] Group 1: Historical Context - Ten years ago, the typical use of IP in gaming was heavily influenced by the mobile gaming boom, with significant financial investments in IP adaptations, such as the 8.1 million yuan acquisition of the adaptation rights for the novel "Unbeaten Throne" [3] - Companies like Blueport aimed to create a comprehensive cultural ecosystem around IP, leveraging brand influence and fan engagement to drive monetization [3][4] - Successful products like "I Am MT" demonstrated the potential of IP-driven mobile games, leading to a trend where games were adapted into various media formats [4] Group 2: Current Trends - In the past year, there has been a resurgence of interest in IP within the gaming sector, with a focus on its impact on existing user engagement rather than merely attracting new users [5][6] - The DNF IP is now being showcased through a matrix of products, allowing for deeper storytelling and user engagement within the gaming experience [6][8] - Collaborations with other IPs, such as the partnership between "Tide Watcher" and "Game of Thrones," illustrate the trend of enriching game narratives and enhancing player immersion [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gaming market has reached a saturation point, making it increasingly costly to acquire new users, prompting a strategic shift towards retaining existing players through enhanced IP services [8][9] - The focus on deepening the service aspect of IP reflects a broader industry trend towards optimizing existing player experiences rather than solely expanding user bases [8][9]