开源证券股份有限公司黄泽鹏,姚慕宇近期对豫园股份（600655）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司信息 更新报告：珠宝时尚业务积极调整，出海战略打开成长空间》，给予豫园股份买入评级。 风险提示：竞争加剧、渠道扩张不及预期、收购整合效果不及预期等。 最新盈利预测明细如下： | 报告日期 | 机构简称 | 研究员 | 沂一年业绩 | 研报数 | 覆盖时长 | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 2027预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 预测准确度 | | | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | (70) | | 2025-08-27 | 华泰证券 | 樊俊豪 | r | -- | - | 9.21 Z | 16.71 Z | 20.55 Z | 7.30 | | 2025-08-26 | 中信建投 | 刘乐文 | -- | -- | - | 2.65 Z | 7.13 Z | 9.63 Z | i | | 2025-08-20 | 信达证券 | 姜文强 | -- | - | ...

Core Insights - Yuyuan Group reported a revenue of 19.112 billion yuan and a net profit of 630 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in Q2 revenue to 10.33 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery trend [1] - The jewelry fashion segment, a core revenue source, achieved Q2 revenue of 7.6 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.1% and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 47% [1][2] - The company is undergoing structural adjustments in its jewelry business, focusing on product, channel, and organizational upgrades to enhance profitability and reach younger consumers [2][4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s cash position is strong, with 11.79 billion yuan in cash, a 10% increase from the end of the previous year, and a net operating cash flow of 2.277 billion yuan, up 70.97% year-on-year [1][6] - The gross margin for the jewelry segment increased by 0.43 percentage points to 7.34% in the first half of the year [2] Structural Adjustments in Jewelry Business - The transition from weight-based to piece-based products is expected to impact short-term sales but aligns with long-term trends favoring high cultural and emotional value products [2][3] - The introduction of IP collaborations, such as with the animation IP "Tian Guan Ci Fu," has successfully attracted new consumer demographics, with significant sales on platforms like Tmall [3][4] Market and Policy Environment - The company benefits from favorable consumer and real estate policies, including various stimulus measures that have positively impacted its performance [5][6] - The Yuyuan Mall saw a visitor count of 18.74 million and a GMV of 2.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 55% year-on-year increase [6] International Expansion - Yuyuan Group's overseas revenue reached 522 million yuan, with successful international initiatives such as the opening of a restaurant in London and a lantern festival in Thailand [7] - The company is strategically expanding its jewelry brand, Laomiao, into overseas markets, including plans for new stores in Macau and Malaysia [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group's second-quarter performance shows signs of stabilization, with a significant improvement in revenue growth and early results from structural adjustments in its core jewelry fashion business [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Yuyuan Group achieved revenue of 10.33 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, but showing a significant increase in growth rate compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The jewelry fashion business, which accounts for 63.88% of total revenue, reported a revenue of 7.612 billion yuan, marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery from previous declines [2]. - The gross profit margin for Yuyuan Group reached 15.09% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.79 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Yuyuan Group is undergoing a strategic transformation from a weight-based model to a piece-based model, which involves adjustments in channels, customer structure, and franchisee relationships [2]. - The company has implemented a new slogan of "new model, new products, new retail," focusing on optimizing channel structures and enhancing operational quality [3]. - The company has adjusted its jewelry retail outlets, with a total of 4,249 stores under the "Laobian" and "Yayi" brands as of June 2025, including 250 self-operated stores [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The domestic gold jewelry consumption volume in 2024 was 532.02 tons, a decrease of 24.69% year-on-year, influenced by high gold prices and weak external consumption [2]. - Yuyuan Group's transformation aligns with the "three new economies" (new industries, new formats, new business models), which saw a value-added growth of 6.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 24.29 trillion yuan [5]. - The company is actively engaging in cross-industry collaborations, such as partnering with the popular animation IP "Tian Guan Ci Fu," which has generated significant market interest and sales [6]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The consumer sector has faced challenges due to weak demand, with over half of the 130 food and beverage companies in A-shares reporting revenue declines in Q1 [4]. - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, such as trade-in programs and consumption vouchers, are expected to help consumer companies recover from the downturn [4]. - Yuyuan Group's diverse business portfolio includes traditional dining brands and high-profile watch brands, positioning it well to capitalize on emerging consumer trends [4].