Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangmei Co., Ltd., has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by strong performance from its main brand, Han Shu, and its smaller brand, Yi Ye [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between 4.09 to 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1]. - The net profit is projected to be between 540 to 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, Han Shu maintained its position as the top-selling beauty and skincare brand on Douyin, with significant sales growth across multiple platforms: 46% on Tmall, 81% on JD, 40% on Vipshop, and 229% on Pinduoduo [2]. - The Yi Ye Newpage brand also saw impressive sales increases, with growth rates of 106% on Tmall, 190% on Douyin, and 158% on JD, ranking high in various categories within the baby care sector [2]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 1.16 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [2]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating continued confidence in the company's multi-brand development and upward trend in net profit margins [2].

Core Viewpoint - Company expects significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance of its main brand and smaller brands [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Company forecasts revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [3]. - Expected net profit is between 540 million to 560 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The main brand, 韩束 (Hanshu), continues to see revenue growth, contributing significantly to overall performance [4]. - 韩束 brand maintained the top position in sales on the Douyin platform for beauty and skincare, with substantial growth across multiple e-commerce platforms: 46% on Tmall, 81% on JD, 40% on Vipshop, and 229% on Pinduoduo [4]. - The Newpage brand also showed impressive growth, with sales increasing by 106% on Tmall, 190% on Douyin, and 158% on JD [4]. Group 3: Market Position - 韩束 brand's dominance on Douyin is reinforced, maintaining its leading position in GMV for beauty products [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its first half performance for 2025, with projected revenue of 40.9 to 41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and a net profit of 5.4 to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous growth of the main brand, Han Shu, and significant contributions from smaller brands like Newpage [2] - The company has optimized its brand strategy, particularly for Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, enhancing its multi-category layout and overall competitiveness [2] - During the major e-commerce promotion event in June 2025, Han Shu maintained its leading position in sales across multiple platforms, with significant year-on-year growth in sales on platforms like Tmall and JD [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 11.6 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's multi-brand development and net profit margin trends [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.6% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 48.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 2.91 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.7% [5][12] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence, particularly in the beauty and skincare sectors, with Han Shu leading in sales rankings on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, all-channel strategy, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9]