| [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 6862 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 19.3/12.26 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 829.41 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 14.88 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 829.41 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 5,574.00 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1，公司实现营收 207.03 亿元/-3.7%，归母净利润 17.59 亿元/-13.7%，核心经营利润 24.08 亿元/- 14.0%。公司拟派发中期股息 16.73 亿元（每股 0.309 元），派息率达 95%。 分析判断 ► 主品牌翻台率下降，深耕差异化服务有望推动翻台率回升 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 发力多品牌和外卖，高分红持续 [Table_Title2] 海底捞(6862.HK) 2025H1，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shangmei Co., Ltd., has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by strong performance from its main brand, Han Shu, and its smaller brand, Yi Ye [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between 4.09 to 4.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1]. - The net profit is projected to be between 540 to 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, Han Shu maintained its position as the top-selling beauty and skincare brand on Douyin, with significant sales growth across multiple platforms: 46% on Tmall, 81% on JD, 40% on Vipshop, and 229% on Pinduoduo [2]. - The Yi Ye Newpage brand also saw impressive sales increases, with growth rates of 106% on Tmall, 190% on Douyin, and 158% on JD, ranking high in various categories within the baby care sector [2]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 1.16 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [2]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating continued confidence in the company's multi-brand development and upward trend in net profit margins [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its first half performance for 2025, with projected revenue of 40.9 to 41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and a net profit of 5.4 to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous growth of the main brand, Han Shu, and significant contributions from smaller brands like Newpage [2] - The company has optimized its brand strategy, particularly for Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, enhancing its multi-category layout and overall competitiveness [2] - During the major e-commerce promotion event in June 2025, Han Shu maintained its leading position in sales across multiple platforms, with significant year-on-year growth in sales on platforms like Tmall and JD [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 11.6 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's multi-brand development and net profit margin trends [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.6% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 48.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 2.91 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.7% [5][12] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence, particularly in the beauty and skincare sectors, with Han Shu leading in sales rankings on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, all-channel strategy, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9]

Group 1: Brand Development and Strategy - The main brand's growth is complemented by the successful performance of sub-brands like Winona and AOXMED, indicating a balanced resource allocation strategy [2][3] - The company employs an internal incubation mechanism for sub-brands, allowing independent team operations and budget management [2] - The brand matrix has been established with various brands targeting different consumer segments, including Winona Baby and Beforteen [3][4] Group 2: Information Disclosure and Investor Relations - The company adheres to strict information disclosure obligations, ensuring transparency and effective communication of key operational and financial information [3] - In the 2023-2024 period, the company received an "A" rating for information disclosure from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, reflecting its commitment to improving disclosure quality [3] - The company actively engages with investors through various channels, including dedicated personnel for inquiries and participation in strategy meetings and roadshows [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Future Directions - The company plans to enhance operational capabilities through digital transformation, AI empowerment, and supply chain cost reduction strategies [3][4] - Future growth directions include focusing on infant skincare, high-end anti-aging, and AI acne treatment, with specific brands assigned to each segment [4] - The company aims to balance marketing investments for brand expansion with profitability goals, ensuring sustainable growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance due to increased expenses, with a focus on high-quality development across multiple brands [12] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 495 million yuan, down 29.1% year-on-year [5][12] - The company is expanding its brand portfolio, including the acquisition of the global intellectual property rights for the high-end outdoor brand Woolrich for approximately 384 million yuan [12] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.0% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased to 9.6%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][9] - The company’s operating income for 2025 Q1 was 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year [6][12] - The total number of stores for the main brands as of the end of 2024 was 821 for Baoxini, 478 for Haggis, and 95 for Le Fei Ye, with Le Fei Ye showing a significant growth rate of 26.7% [8] Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company's expense ratio increased by 3.0 percentage points to 49.9% in 2024, primarily due to higher sales and marketing costs [9][10] - The sales expense ratio rose to 41.3%, reflecting increased investment in market expansion and brand promotion [9][18] - The company’s net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 39.1% in 2024, primarily due to reduced sales collections [11] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profits projected at 517 million yuan and 570 million yuan, respectively [12] - The report anticipates continued growth in the outdoor segment, particularly for the Le Fei Ye brand, benefiting from trends in outdoor activities [12]

Temu、阿里打架，韩国电商下滑 今年一季度，韩国最大电商平台 Coupang 收入 71 亿美元，同比增长 23%，但净亏损 2400 万美元。 去年同期，它还盈利 9090 万美元。 Coupang 的亏损主要因为收购了持续亏损的奢侈品电商 Farfetch。不过剔除这一因素，它仍然在收入 增长的前提下利润下滑 —— 因为新晋中国对手的竞争。 根据第三方市调机构 Wiseapp Retail Goods 数据，Coupang 有 3000 万月活用户，是韩国第一，但速卖 通和 Temu 增长更快。今年 2 月，速卖通在当地的月活用户达到 820 万，而进入当地只有半年的 Temu、阿里打架，韩国电商下滑 索马里海盗卷土重来 特步的多品牌之路不好走 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 Temu 月活达到近 580 万。到了 3 月，Temu 的月活也已经超过 800 万。 Coupang 创始人兼 CEO 金宝锡在财报电话会上说： 新的中国电商玩家提醒我们，零售业的进入门槛很低，消费者可以比其他行业更快地切换购 物选择，只需几秒钟、滑动手指即可。顾客每次购物都会投出新的一票，并且会毫不犹 ...