Core Viewpoint - China's steel exports showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in certain categories like steel billets and construction materials, while flat steel exports faced pressure due to rising trade barriers and anti-dumping measures from various countries [1][3][12]. Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.68 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, 58.15 million tons were exported in the first half of the year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1]. - Asia remained the largest market for China's steel exports, with a total of 38.09 million tons exported to the region in the first half of 2025, of which 16.88 million tons went to Southeast Asia, accounting for 65.5% of exports to Asia, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1]. Regional Demand - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant growth, with exports to Africa reaching 7.94 million tons (up 33.3% year-on-year) and to Latin America at 7.79 million tons (up 21% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand in Africa and Latin America is driven by large infrastructure projects, with local production capacity insufficient to meet the needs [2]. Trade Barriers Impact - China's flat steel exports faced challenges, with a total of 36.32 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, while flat steel exports decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The decline in specific products like hot-rolled thin wide steel strips was significant, with a 25.3% drop [3][6]. - Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled products, leading to a 42.4% decrease in exports to Vietnam in the first half of 2025 [4]. Export Structure Changes - The export structure showed a clear divergence, with flat steel exports declining while steel billets, rebar, and wire rod saw substantial increases. Steel billets exports surged by 300.3%, driven by overseas infrastructure investments [6][12]. - The first half of 2025 saw a notable increase in exports of special steel bars, reaching 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 54.93%, attributed to strong demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America [10][11]. Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates that while flat steel exports may continue to face challenges due to trade barriers, the demand for steel billets and construction materials is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 was 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,285,345 lots, with a position of 2,160,329 lots and an increase of 47,284 lots; HC2510 had a trading volume of 435,507 lots, a position of 1,350,873 lots and an increase of 6,762 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Beijing remained unchanged, while in Guangzhou it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Tianjin were stable, in Hangzhou it decreased by 20 yuan/ton and in Guangzhou it increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton to 132 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510 and HC2601 - RB2601 all increased, while the spot coil - rebar spread remained unchanged [2]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Anti - dumping Tax**: South Korea will continue to impose a five - year anti - dumping tax on stainless steel sheets from the Chinese mainland (23.69% - 25.82%), Indonesia and Taiwan region, but some suppliers with price commitments are exempted [4]. - **Crude Steel Production**: In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. The daily output in April decreased by 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, the output was 34535 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year. Hebei ranked first in output from January to April, followed by Jiangsu and Shandong [4]. - **Weekly Data**: On May 15, rebar production increased by 30,000 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 84,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 58,200 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 337,600 tons, hot - rolled coil by 175,500 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 454,100 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 463,900 tons, hot - rolled coil by 200,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 685,600 tons [4]. - **Early May Data**: In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with a daily output increase of 0.2% month - on - month; 19.9 million tons of pig iron, with a daily output increase of 1.6% month - on - month; and 20.83 million tons of steel, with a daily output decrease of 8.4% month - on - month [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4].

智通财经5月20日电，韩国企划财政部发布第1126号令，继续对原产于中国大陆、印度尼西亚和中国台 湾地区的厚度不超过8毫米的不锈钢板卷征收为期五年的反倾销税，其中，中国大陆为23.69%～ 25.82%；与此同时，企划财政部与部分供应商达成了价格承诺，对履行价格承诺的供应商将不征收反 倾销税。 韩国继续对涉华不锈钢板卷实施反倾销措施 ...