然而，亮眼的经济增长数据背后，通胀压力依然挥之不去。美联储密切关注的核心通胀指标——个人消费支出指数在第三季度按年率计算上涨百分之二点 八，高于前值。更为关键的核心个人消费支出通胀率则录得百分之二点九，同样呈现上升趋势，这一水平仍显著高于美联储设定的长期目标。 最新数据显示，美国经济在第三季度展现了超出预期的增长韧性。根据美国商务部经济分析局近日发布的报告，经通胀调整后的第三季度实际生产总值年化 季率达到百分之四点三，显著高于市场此前预测的百分之三点三。这一增速不仅较第二季度的百分之三点八进一步提升，更创下了近两年来的最快扩张纪 录。 经济学家分析指出，当前美国劳动力市场可能正进入一种活跃度降低的状态，企业招聘意愿趋于谨慎，这或与企业面临的政策不确定性及持续的高利率环境 影响有关。有观点认为，近期的就业增长数据在未来可能还会被向下修正。 这份因故延期发布的报告显示，消费者支出、出口及公共开支共同构成了本季度经济增长的主要推力。其中，作为经济核心动力的消费者支出，其年化增长 率达到百分之三点五，表现优于前一季度。与此同时，出口与公共支出的增加也为增长提供了稳固支撑，而私人固定投资领域虽仍呈下降态势，但其降幅已 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that historical cases show a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve's shift from a tightening cycle to rate cuts and subsequent increases in the S&P 500 index, with 10 out of 11 instances resulting in market gains within a year [1] - Market focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the magnitude and pace of rate cuts," with traders increasing the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September from 75% to 85% [3] - The upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the July Personal Consumption Expenditures index and August non-farm payrolls, will significantly influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [3] Group 2 - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, as highlighted by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's dissenting views [4] - The VIX index's divergence from the S&P 500 suggests that investors may be underestimating the complexities of policy adjustments, particularly if rate cut expectations shift from 25 to 50 basis points [4] - Geopolitical risks, global supply chain fluctuations, and emerging market debt vulnerabilities are more likely to influence changes in rate cut decisions [5]