Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the expiration of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the potential shifts in asset allocation among residents [3][41]. Group 1: Background and Context - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the "excess savings" issue discussed three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and declining consumer sentiment. In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion yuan, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion yuan. In 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion yuan, but fixed-term deposits still made up 96% of this amount [4][41]. - The formation of excess savings from 2022 to 2023 can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets where residents redeemed wealth management products in favor of deposits [4][9]. Group 2: Future Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate funds to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion yuan for both 2024 and 2025. The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [9][10]. - By 2026, the maturity of fixed-term deposits for residents is estimated to be around 70 trillion yuan, with a peak in the first quarter. The total maturity of fixed-term deposits is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [16][17]. Group 3: Deposit Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for deposits is approximately 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be reinvested rather than withdrawn from the banking system. The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to drop to around 88% in 2024 [20][21]. - If the renewal rate decreases to 80%, the potential outflow of deposits could be around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in an outflow of approximately 7 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The primary destinations for migrating deposits are low-risk assets, such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions. The majority of residents are risk-averse, with 96% of their financial assets allocated to low-risk and no-risk assets [23][24]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, wealth management products by 2.8 trillion yuan, and insurance by 4.1 trillion yuan. The relationship between insurance and deposits may evolve as deposit rates decline [29][30]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Implications - The behavior of residents regarding high-risk assets is largely dependent on market conditions, with significant increases in holdings during bullish markets. For instance, the net value of bond funds held by individuals rose from 399 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, but growth slowed in 2025 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes that the migration of deposits does not necessarily correlate with an increase in early loan repayments, as the majority of maturing deposits are from short-term fixed deposits, which typically have lower interest rates compared to existing mortgage rates [38].

据交通银行官方微信公众号消息，近日，交通银行"沃野万理·共见未来——沃德财富万里行"全国巡回 路演在上海、广州、北京三地联合启动。在启动仪式上，周万阜表示，交行近期在总行层面成立财富管 理部，进一步强化财富金融特色，提升客户服务能力。此次"沃德财富万里行"作为组织架构优化后的首 个市场推广项目，将率先在重点区域开展，并逐步向全国推广，持续推动财富管理服务提质升级。 财富管理业务与老百姓的"钱袋子"息息相关。近日召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强 大国内市场"列为明年经济工作重点任务，提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计 划"。 "财富管理是增加居民财产性收入的重要途径之一，也是提振消费的重要抓手。"周万阜表示，交通银行 做优做强财富管理业务，助力居民增加财产性收入，是落实党中央决策部署的重要举措，也是金融机构 特别是资管机构和财富管理机构的共同使命。 交通银行财富管理业务目前成色如何？半年报显示，截至2025年6月末，交通银行代销个人公募基金产 品余额2131.61亿元，代销个人理财产品余额10044.77亿元，代销个人保险产品余额3535.3亿元。 作为财富管理版图的核心，理财 ...

来源：金融人事mini 近日，在交通银行"沃德财富万里行"启动仪式上，副行长周万阜介绍，近期在总行层面成立财富管理 部，以进一步强化财富金融特色，提升客户服务能力。他强调，交行致力于通过做优做强财富管理业 务，助力居民增加财产性收入。 杜俊任个金/数经部副总；历任交通银行广西区分行副行长、海南省分行副行长，湖北省分行副行长， 总行个人金融部副总经理。 银行人事了解到，交行财富管理部负责人，目前由私人银行部总经理金旗兼任。 金旗，毕业于复旦大学，长期从事商业银行、投资银行、资产管理、财富管理业务，具备丰富的金融理 论和实践经验。历任交通银行公司机构业务部副总经理、票据业务中心总裁、资产管理业务中心总裁等 职，2019年5月出任交银理财首任总裁，2023年3月任交行私人银行部总经理。 此外，交行总行个金部架构也出现调整。据悉，交行数字化经营中心已并入个人金融业务部，成立个人 金融业务部/消费者权益保护部/数智化经营中心，以下该部门简称"个金/数经部"，新部门相关负责人也 已确定。 李肇宁任个金/数经部总经理；原个金部总经理王冠拟任北京分行行长。 李肇宁，西南财经大学中国金融研究中心博士，2017年4月任交通银行河 ...