小米股價經歷一波調整後，正浮現技術反彈的契機。當前股價在47.1至48.4元區間震盪，RSI指標處於36的超賣邊緣，顯示短期內可能迎來技術性反彈。從 移動平均線觀察，股價已跌破MA10的49.5元和MA30的53.65元，但正因如此，反而創造了絕佳的進場時機。多個技術指標呈現背離現象，動量震盪指標和 VR成交比率指標同步發出買入信號，暗示底部正在逐步成形。 回顾10月20日专栏【港股Podcast】点评小米集團-W (01810)：是趁低吸納的機會嗎？窩輪市場上，有投資者留意熊證。Simon：上個禮拜小米的 股價跌得比較厲害，股價最低曾到45.7元，週一（20日）收報47.1元，總算有小幅回升。在這種情況下，有投資者問，目前是不是趁低吸納小米 的機會；而在窩輪市場，也有人開始關注相關的認沽證，這其實很正常，市場上本來就有看漲和看跌兩種觀點，正股有人買漲，短期內也會有投 資者看跌，這是市場常見的現象。 我們先看正股的情況，關於目前是不是趁低吸納的機會，還是要結合技術信號來看，這里要再次強調，技術信號不代表明天就會上漲，只是能給 短期走勢提供一個大致方向和感受。當前小米的短期技術信號呈現"強力買入"，有13個買入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, with a recent decline of 1.05% to HKD 56.8, indicating active market trading and a neutral signal without a clear direction [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is positioned slightly below the 10-day moving average of HKD 57.49, yet remains above the 30-day moving average of HKD 56.96 and the 60-day moving average of HKD 54.55, suggesting short-term adjustment pressure but no significant damage to the medium-term trend [1]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 55.2 and HKD 53.6, while resistance levels are at HKD 58.4 and HKD 60.3. A rebound above HKD 57.5 could challenge the resistance at HKD 58.4, whereas a drop below HKD 55.2 may lead to a decline towards HKD 53.6 [4]. Market Sentiment - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with multiple moving averages issuing sell signals, but the overall market sentiment is not strongly bearish, as indicated by a sell strength of only 10. The RSI is at 53, indicating a neutral zone [4]. - Recent performance in the derivative market shows a significant increase in bearish instruments when Xiaomi's stock price fell by 2.82% on July 24, with notable gains in related put options [4]. Derivative Instruments - Investors looking for bullish positions may consider UBS call options (14816) with a strike price of HKD 61.05, offering a leverage of 5.9 times and low implied volatility. HSBC call options (14677) have the same strike price but offer slightly higher leverage at 6.1 times [7]. - For bearish investors, options such as Bank of China put options (14387) with a strike price of HKD 46.45 and leverage of 3.09 times, or UBS put options (17706) with a strike price of HKD 53.94 and leverage of 4.8 times, are available [7]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, a cautious approach is recommended, waiting for a clear breakout above HKD 57.5 or a drop below HKD 55.2 before making further moves. A range trading strategy could be beneficial, positioning call options near support levels and put options near resistance levels [13].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Xiaomi experienced over 30% year-on-year growth during the recent 618 shopping festival, with domestic business maintaining a strong growth momentum in Q2, accumulating a total payment amount of 35.5 billion RMB [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory phase two is preparing for production, with the YU 7 expected to be officially launched between late June and early July, which could be positive news for Xiaomi [1] - Technical analysis shows mixed signals; while overall signals indicate a buy with a strength of 15, some oscillators like the RSI are in overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term price adjustments [1][3] Technical Analysis - Xiaomi has two support levels at 52.3 and 54, with resistance levels at 58.4 and 60.4. The current price is 57.1, indicating a delicate balance between support and resistance [3] - The probability of an upward movement is 53%, with a 5-day volatility of 7.3%, reflecting market divergence in sentiment towards Xiaomi [3] Product Performance - Several products mentioned on June 19 performed well, with notable increases in warrants such as Citibank's warrant 13549 and HSBC's put warrant 14333, showing significant price appreciation within two days [3][5] Investment Opportunities - For those anticipating a rise in Xiaomi's stock price, Citibank's warrant 13549 offers the lowest premium with a leverage of 10.6 times and an exercise price of 61.5 [5] - For hedging against potential declines, HSBC's put warrant 14333 is recommended due to its low premium and implied volatility [6] Related Assets - Various warrants and certificates related to Xiaomi are available, including Citibank's warrant 13549 with a leverage of 10.6, and UBS's bear certificate 56421 with a leverage of 13.1 [7][8]