本文特约作者：肖竹青（中国酒业独立评论人） 根据国家统计局近日公布的数据，2025年6月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。但酒类价格同比下降1.7%，环比下降0.3%；而纵观1-6月整体表现，酒 类价格更是录得2.0%的同比降幅。据媒体报道，从今年的多期数据来看，名酒产品价格波动下滑已经是普遍现象。 肖竹青特别强调茅台的"不可取代"，本质是它成了经济下行期的"硬通货"——就像爱马仕在奢侈品衰退周期里反而涨价，茅台的"最贵白酒"标签反而强化了 稀缺性。 其他名酒想复制？很难。 因为心智占位是零和游戏，茅台占了"最贵"，其他品牌只能抢"性价比"，而"性价比"天生容易和价格下滑绑定。 3.消费紧缩的"长尾效应"才开始 "名酒价格下滑"——表面看是库存、是渠道、是厂家压货，本质却是一场由经济周期驱动的消费心理崩塌。他用一句话点破： "过去喝3100的茅台不觉得贵，现在1800都觉得吃力"——这不是酒的问题，是钱包和预期的问题。 最可怕的三个真相： 1."可替代性"正在杀死千元价格带 五粮液、国窖1573、青花郎们过去靠"千元标杆"撑面子，如今消费者发现：请领导喝习酒1988（跌破400元）也一样能表达敬意，何必多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese liquor market, particularly the shift from high-end baijiu to more accessible options, reflecting changing consumer preferences and social dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The baijiu market has seen a significant shift from high-end products to more affordable options, with a growing preference for light and accessible "light bottle" baijiu [4][5]. - The high-end baijiu segment remains strong, but many non-leading brands have seen their prices drop significantly, leading to uncertainty in their value [4][5]. - Predictions indicate that by the second half of 2025, light bottle baijiu priced between 50-100 RMB and mid-range baijiu priced between 250-450 RMB will become the most popular segments [4]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - There is a notable change in consumer behavior, with a focus on the enjoyment of baijiu itself rather than its status as a social currency, as seen in past business gatherings [3][4]. - Younger consumers are increasingly favoring lower-alcohol options and are less interested in high-end baijiu, leading to a shift in marketing strategies among liquor companies [10][11]. - The article highlights the emergence of new products targeting younger demographics, such as flavored and lower-alcohol baijiu, which align with contemporary lifestyle preferences [10][11]. Group 3: Regional Brands and Innovations - Regional brands like Mingguang liquor have shown impressive growth, with revenue projections increasing from under 300 million RMB in 2021 to over 1 billion RMB by 2024 following a merger [7][8]. - The article emphasizes the unique characteristics of certain regional liquors, such as Jinmen sorghum and Li Du sorghum, which cater to niche markets and have distinct flavor profiles [6][7]. - The article notes that many high-end brands struggle to penetrate lower-tier markets effectively, while regional brands excel in producing mid-range products that resonate well with local consumers [10].