本文特约作者：肖竹青（中国酒业独立评论人） 根据国家统计局近日公布的数据，2025年6月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。但酒类价格同比下降1.7%，环比下降0.3%；而纵观1-6月整体表现，酒 类价格更是录得2.0%的同比降幅。据媒体报道，从今年的多期数据来看，名酒产品价格波动下滑已经是普遍现象。 肖竹青特别强调茅台的"不可取代"，本质是它成了经济下行期的"硬通货"——就像爱马仕在奢侈品衰退周期里反而涨价，茅台的"最贵白酒"标签反而强化了 稀缺性。 其他名酒想复制？很难。 因为心智占位是零和游戏，茅台占了"最贵"，其他品牌只能抢"性价比"，而"性价比"天生容易和价格下滑绑定。 3.消费紧缩的"长尾效应"才开始 "名酒价格下滑"——表面看是库存、是渠道、是厂家压货，本质却是一场由经济周期驱动的消费心理崩塌。他用一句话点破： "过去喝3100的茅台不觉得贵，现在1800都觉得吃力"——这不是酒的问题，是钱包和预期的问题。 最可怕的三个真相： 1."可替代性"正在杀死千元价格带 五粮液、国窖1573、青花郎们过去靠"千元标杆"撑面子，如今消费者发现：请领导喝习酒1988（跌破400元）也一样能表达敬意，何必多 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year as of June 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month above 3% [1] - The increase in prices is primarily driven by soaring food costs, with ordinary rice prices nearly doubling and coffee bean prices rising by 40.2% [3] - The rising cost of living is significantly impacting the daily expenses of consumers, leading to increased financial pressure on households [3] Government Response - The government has attempted to alleviate inflationary pressures through gasoline retail subsidies and reductions in public high school tuition fees, but these measures are deemed insufficient [3] - Temporary relief in gasoline prices is expected to be short-lived due to ongoing volatility in international energy markets [3] Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - Long-term wage growth in Japan has lagged behind inflation, severely eroding residents' purchasing power [3] - Economic experts warn that if wage growth does not keep pace with rising prices, consumer spending will remain weak, hindering economic recovery [3] Trade and Manufacturing Sector - Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. are at an impasse, negatively affecting corporate confidence [5] - The manufacturing and export-oriented sectors are under increased pressure from trade tensions, leading to reduced investment and slower innovation [5] Social and Political Implications - The combination of high prices and stagnant trade is exacerbating social discontent, with rising living costs contributing to a decline in domestic demand [5] - Japan faces significant demographic challenges, including an aging population and a shrinking labor force, complicating economic recovery efforts [5] Structural Issues and Future Outlook - Japan's inflation is seen as a result of structural imbalances, complex international conditions, and compounded internal pressures [7] - The government must focus on reasonable wage growth, deeper economic reforms, and resolving trade disputes to alleviate the burden on citizens and restore corporate confidence [7] - The current economic challenges pose a critical test for Japan's government and could have broader implications for global economic dynamics [7]