公司发布6 月产销快报，6 月汽车销量为11.1 万辆，同比+12.9%，环比+8.3%；2025 年Q2 汽车销量为 31.3 万辆，同比+10.1%，环比+21.9%；2025 年H1 汽车销量为57.0 万辆，同比+1.8%。 新能源销售保持高增长，2025Q2 海外销售回升明显6 月公司新能源汽车销量为3.6 万辆，同比+39.4%， 环比+11.5%；1-6 月累计销量为16.0 万辆，同比+21.2%。2025 年H1 新能源汽车销量占比为28.2%，同 比+4.5pct，电动化进一步向上。出海方面，6 月海外销量为4.0 万辆，同比+5.2%，环比+16.0%，1-6 月 海外累计销量为19.8 万辆，同比-1.9%。2025 年Q2 公司海外销量为10.7万辆，同比-1.8%，环比 +17.5%，环比回升明显。我们预计公司巴西工厂将于2025年H2 投产，投产后初期将生产3 款车型，产 能5 万辆，后续产能将逐步提高至10万辆，通过海外建厂实现销售，一方面提升公司销量，另一方面也 降低了公司受到关税等不利因素的影响。 投资建议 我们预计公司2025-2027 年营收分别为2427/2812/3 ...

新车： 6月2025款欧拉好猫、坦克500Hi4-Z智驾版；三季度坦克400、500、700等车型及哈弗大狗/二代大狗改 款 出口： 5月同比转正，预期Q3同比正增长；澳大利亚市场5月~5k，俄罗斯市场6月预期边际向好 渠道： 直营门店建设所带来的费用增幅预计下降，销量考核后续加强；推动欧拉和哈弗新能源并网 往期推荐 分车型： 二代枭龙MAX 5月8k销量，日均订单200+；高山预计6月销量5k+；蓝山日均订单150；猛龙燃油版 日均订单100+ 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 CATL ：储能 市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 加入社群 ...

| 长城汽车系列报告回顾 车中旭霞 | | --- | | 公司深度报告： | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）深度之二 ：自主龙头领跑智能汽车赛道》-20210825 | | 公司点评报告： | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）-产品结构优化叠加出口放量，2024年前三季度净利润同比增长109%》 ——2024-10-28 | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）-产品结构优化叠加出口放量，单车净利润同环比提升》 ——2024-09-05 | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）-年报点评：2023年营收同比增长32%，新能源与出口齐放量》——20240430 | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）2023三季报点评：新能源与出口齐发力，单三季度净利润环比增长206%》——20231030 | | 《长城汽车 （601633.SH）2023 中报点评：二季度出口销量同比增长115%，新能源战略转型持续推进》-20230904 | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）2023一季报点评：盈利能力短期承压，静待新品放量驱动业绩上行》-20230403 | | 《长城汽车（601633.SH）年报点评： ...

【解剖大盘】 昨天维稳会议还是起到了较好的作用，今天两地市场再度反弹，恒指收盘涨 0.37%。 北京时间周四凌晨 2 点，美联储宣布将基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期，美联储连续 第三次宣布维持基准利率不变。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，关税的影响到目前为止 比预期的要大得多，并警告关税对失业和通胀的影响，认为经济路径的不确定性极高，下行风险已增 加。按照这个决议，美股当然是应该往下的，但美国总统特朗普昨日突发推文：明天上午 10 点(北京时 间今晚 10 点)将在椭圆形办公室举行重大新闻发布会，内容涉及与一个备受尊敬的大国的代表达成的一 项重大贸易协议。这是第一个(达成的协议)。多家西方媒体报道说，特朗普口中的国家正是英国。英国 首相斯塔默也发文确认了：今天晚些时候将听到更多有关美国经济协议的消息。 现在美国没有什么牌好打，只有寄希望于和别的国家达成协议，之所以英国是第一个，很大原因是因为 英国从美国的进口多于向美国的出口，这属于贸易逆差的国家。再加上现在几大盟友，也只有英国看上 去相对顺眼，这也容易理解，历来美英之间差不多是同根同源，也不存在过多的分歧。按照 BBC 的 ...

上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 05 月 07 日 长城汽车 (601633) ——短期业绩承压，不改国内&海外增长确定性 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 23.28 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 33.34/21.55 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 1.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 144,551 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,342.67/10,104.13 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.61 | | 资产负债率% | 61.11 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 8,560/6,209 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/2,319 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-07 06-07 07-07 08-07 09-07 10-07 11-07 12-07 01-07 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][5]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 40 billion RMB, down 7% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.8 billion RMB, down 46% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, which was below expectations due to product inventory adjustments and increased direct sales costs [1][2]. - The launch of the second-generation Xiaolong MAX in April is expected to boost revenue and profit as the company transitions to new energy vehicles, alongside the new pricing and features of the Weipai Gaoshan model [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - The company sold 260,000 new vehicles in Q1, a decrease of 7% year-on-year. The gross margin was 18%, a decrease of 2% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1% year-on-year. The average selling price (ASP) and gross profit per vehicle were 160,000 RMB and 30,000 RMB, respectively [2]. - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 5.7%, 2.3%, 4.8%, and -2.6%, respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to new vehicle marketing and direct sales investments [2]. Product Launches - The second-generation Xiaolong MAX was launched at a starting price of 116,800 RMB, featuring advanced four-wheel drive technology and a low fuel consumption rate of 0.97L/100km, which is expected to achieve monthly sales of over 8,000 units [3]. - The Weipai Gaoshan model has been revamped with a price drop and enhanced features, with expected monthly sales of over 6,000 units as it targets the mainstream MPV market [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 15.3 billion, 18.6 billion, and 20.1 billion RMB, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 22x for A-shares and 11x for H-shares, with target prices set at 39.69 RMB and 20.95 HKD, respectively [5][13].

| 黄细里 | Ekste | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | | | 煮路 | | | 郭雨蒙 | | | 孙仁昊 | De se o | | 赖闊旭 | יות משפחים | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025Q1业绩。2025Q1公司实现营收400.19亿元，同环比-6.6%/-33.2%，实现归母净利 润17.51亿元，同环比-45.7%/-22.7%，归母净利润同比下降主要系：1）产品周期波动导致季度 销量下降；2）销售费用同比增长；3）俄罗斯报废税返还因新车认证后延所致。盈利能力方 面，公司Q1毛利率为17.84%，同环比分别-2.2/+1.3pct，受俄罗斯报废税后延约影响。费用率方 面，Q1公司销售费用为22.96亿元，同环比分别+34.6%/+44.6%，主要系：1）直营体系加速投 入的影响；2）新车型上市和预热的影响，如高山、坦克300、二代枭龙max等。 魏品牌放量，出海持续推进： 销量结构上，长城汽车Q1批发销量25.68万辆，同环比分别-6.7%/-32.3%。分品牌来看，哈弗/ 魏 牌 / 坦 克 / 欧 拉 / 皮 卡 销 ...

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors (GWM) showcased nearly 40 models across six brands at the 2025 Shanghai International Auto Show, emphasizing its leadership in smart technology, hardcore off-roading, and globalization [1][3] - The company introduced a new brand logo, with the English abbreviation GWM representing "Great Wall Motor" and symbolizing the brand spirit "Go with more" [1] Product Highlights - The Haval second-generation Xiaolong MAX received 16,368 orders within 24 hours of its launch [3] - The Haval Menglong features a design philosophy that balances aesthetics and practicality, while the Ora Lightning Cat Travel Edition is equipped with laser radar for advanced driving assistance [3] - The Wey brand's new Gaoshan model achieved over 7,848 pre-orders in 24 hours, featuring the Hi4 performance version and Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system [3] - The Tank 300 Huke version is designed for extreme off-road scenarios, and the Shanhai Pao Hi4-T is globally pre-sold starting at 228,800 yuan [3] - The Long Wall Soul Motorcycle S2000GL "Tengyun Ruishi" limited edition was globally unveiled, featuring an 8-cylinder horizontally opposed engine [3] Technological Advancements - GWM has been proactive in smart technology since 2011, establishing the Jiuzhou Supercomputing Center and launching the end-to-end intelligent driving model SEE [5] - The new Coffee Pilot Ultra driving assistance system offers full-scene coverage without high-precision maps, while the Coffee OS 3 smart space system enhances user experience [5] - The Hi4-T architecture integrates strong off-road capabilities with new energy, and the Hi4-Z architecture features 2.0T/3.0T engines with the shortest transmission globally [5] - GWM's self-developed 4.0T V8 engine, 3.0T V6 powertrain, and the motorcycle's 8-cylinder engine were also showcased, highlighting the company's technological accumulation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a temporary performance pressure in Q1 2025, with revenue of 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase as new product cycles begin, with potential for a sales upturn driven by refined product offerings and direct sales channel expansion [4] - The company has significant export potential and a diverse product lineup, which is anticipated to enhance profitability as new models are introduced [4] Revenue Summary - In Q1 2025, total sales were 275,000 units, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with export sales at 91,000 units, down 2% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan, remaining stable year-on-year but down 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Profit Summary - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced scale effects and increased terminal discounts [3] - Sales expenses increased to 2.3 billion yuan, up approximately 900 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to investments in direct sales and marketing for new vehicle launches [3] - Non-recurring gains and losses were 280 million yuan, down 900 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to delayed confirmation of scrap tax refunds [3] Outlook Summary - The mainstream market for new vehicles is expected to see a sales upturn, with successful initial results from new models like the Menglong and New Blue Mountain [4] - The Hi4Z technology is anticipated to significantly enhance the Tank brand's market penetration and profitability [4] - The company is well-positioned for growth with a comprehensive product range and strong technical reserves, particularly in the export market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 14.03 billion yuan, 17.40 billion yuan, and 20.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.1, 11.4, and 9.5 times [5] - A target price of 32.79 yuan per share is set for the next six months based on a 20 times PE for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors is facing short-term pressure on performance due to product cycle fluctuations, despite ongoing globalization efforts [1] - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 40.019 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% quarter-on-quarter and 33.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.751 billion yuan, down 45.7% quarter-on-quarter and 22.7% year-on-year [1] - The report notes that the decline in net profit is primarily due to product cycle fluctuations leading to decreased quarterly sales, increased sales expenses, and delays in new car certifications affecting tax refunds in Russia [1] - Great Wall Motors' Q1 gross margin was 17.84%, with sales expenses rising to 2.296 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase due to accelerated investments in direct sales and new model launches [1] - The report emphasizes the growth of the Wey brand and ongoing international expansion, with total wholesale sales of 256,800 units in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various brands [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 219.515 billion yuan, 237.623 billion yuan, and 253.828 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.57%, 8.25%, and 6.82% [1] - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to 12.270 billion yuan, 13.854 billion yuan, and 14.366 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 3.33% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [1] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 173.212 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.12% [1] - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.43 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.44 [1] - The report indicates that the company’s sales and R&D investments are increasing, which has led to a downward adjustment in profit expectations [1]