证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 近期证券业并购对行业长期影响分析 券业整合 2.0 开启，行业长期格局优化 行业研究·行业快评 非银金融 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 王德坤 021-61761035 wangdekun@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980524070008 证券分析师： 孔祥 021-60375452 kongxiang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523060004 事项： 2025 年 11 月，中金公司公告拟通过换股方式吸收合并东兴证券和信达证券，我们判断，证券行业并购 2.0 时代到位，更重视行业功能性强化与塑造（如跨境功能），而不是简单资本加总。 国信非银观点：近几年来，我国证券业掀起新一轮并购重组浪潮，这既源于政策层面"培育一流投资银行" 的明确导向，也是行业自身发展周期与市场竞争的必然选择。一种是规模占优为导向，比如国泰君安与海 通证券合并，资产、资本规模夯实。国泰海通合并的核心逻辑在于通过规模扩张实现成本节约和效率提升。 合并后公司净资本实力大幅增强，风险承受能力显著提高，为发展资本消耗型业务奠定了坚实基础。此外， 合并 ...

最近后台被问爆了： "明明是牛市，怎么 手中 券商股涨得磨磨唧唧，反倒银行保险一路飘红？ 慢牛格局下，啥时候券商股会再来行情？ " 不少散户朋友盯着账户犯嘀咕，当初满仓券商盼着 "牛市旗手"发力，结果看着隔壁农业银行接连创新高，心里那叫一个急。 先别慌着换仓，今天咱们把这事说透 —— 券商不是涨得少，是前面冲得太猛，你刚好错过了它的 "热身赛"。 所谓 "券商涨不过银行保险"，本质上是个"视觉误差"。 咱们先把尺子亮出来，用数据说话才靠谱。记住两个关键时间点： 2024年9月24日，还有2025年4月7日 的特朗普黄金坑 ，这都是本轮行情 的 两个 重要起点。 从 2024年9月24日算起，到 昨天 券商板块整体涨幅超过 4 7 %，而银行板块 超 36 %，保险板块 略超 3 3 %。 再看 2025年4月7日以来的这波反弹，券商也以1 4 %的涨幅，跑赢了银行的 9 %和保险的 5 % ， 而需要注意的是这区间农业银行区间涨幅 接近 57% ， 远超其他大金融个股，后面我们再会详细讲讲它的影响。 这么一看是不是很清晰？券商压根没输，甚至一直是 "隐形冠军"。 那为啥大家总觉得银行保险更能打？这就得说说三类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [2][31]. Core Insights - The current market trading activity has significantly increased, with A-share daily average trading volume and margin financing balance surpassing 20 trillion, reaching new highs for several key indicators [4]. - The current high trading activity is characterized by a more "rational warming" compared to 2015, with a notable difference in structure and nature [5]. - The average daily trading volume for August 2025 reached 18,738 billion, while July 2025 was 16,336 billion, ranking third and sixth historically, respectively [5]. - The average turnover rate from January to July 2025 was 74%, with a peak of 92% in July, significantly lower than the average turnover rate of 111% during the same period in 2015 [5]. - The current margin financing leverage ratio is approximately 2.3%, significantly lower than the peak of over 3% in 2015, indicating a more cautious use of leverage [6]. - The net financing inflow for Q3 2025 ranks eighth historically, reflecting a short-term increase in market sentiment and active capital inflow [6]. - The number of new investors is primarily driven by the activation of existing accounts rather than a surge in new account openings, with an average of 208,000 new accounts from January to July 2025 compared to 334,000 in 2015 [6]. - The market is transitioning from "expansion" to "quality improvement," with the total number of A-share listed companies reaching 5,424 by the end of July 2025, compared to 2,808 at the end of 2015 [7]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - The daily average trading volume has reached historical highs, with August 2025 at 18,738 billion and July 2025 at 16,336 billion, indicating robust market activity [5]. - The turnover rate has decreased compared to 2015, suggesting a more stable trading environment despite high trading volumes [5]. Margin Financing - The margin financing leverage ratio is currently at 2.3%, indicating a more prudent approach to leverage compared to the higher levels seen in 2015 [6]. - The net financing inflow for Q3 2025 is significant, ranking eighth historically, which shows a positive shift in market sentiment [6]. Investor Dynamics - The increase in new investors is more about activating existing accounts rather than a large influx of new accounts, reflecting a mature investor base [6]. Market Structure - The number of listed companies has increased significantly, providing a wider range of investment options, while the focus has shifted towards quality in IPOs [7]. - The dual transformation of quantity and quality in the market is expected to support sustained healthy growth in market activity [7]. Sector Performance - Internet financial brokerage stocks are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes, leading to a surge in revenues from commissions and margin financing [9]. - The report highlights specific companies such as Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun as key players benefiting from the current market conditions [10].