贝莱德 2026年全球投资展望 2025年12月 贝莱德智库 仅供合格境内机构投资者及专业投资者使用，不得公开派发 CBOH1225A/S-5045823-1/27 美国政策频繁转变和高度不确定性导致全球波动显著加剧 自由于美国政策"朝令夕改" ，宏观政策一定程度上引发了经济的混乱，目前的不确定性仍然较高。另一方面，美国政府的财政 赤字不断增加政府的压力。 1985-2025年美国经济政策不确定性指数的表现 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 指数水平 资料来源：贝莱德智库及美国经济政策不确定性指数，数据来自LSEG Datastream，2025年7月。注：线 条表示美国经济政策不确定性指数的30天平均值。该指数结合了报纸文档的自动文本搜索（衡量政策相关 不确定性文章的频率）、即将到期的联邦税法条款的数目以及专业经济预测师之间的分歧。该指数已经归 一化，数值越高表示不确定性越大。如欲了解更多信息，请参阅 https://www.policyuncertainty.com/methodology.html ...

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global financial markets are experiencing a complex and volatile landscape, with diverse asset performances and intertwining disruptive trends and macro risks [1][2] - Following the market turmoil in April 2025, global stock markets rebounded, with notable recoveries in the US, China, and Japan, driven primarily by strong earnings in AI-related sectors [1][2] - The US stock market's performance is particularly strong, supported by the technology and communication sectors, with the "Tech Seven" companies being key drivers of returns [1][2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under significant pressure, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets rising to multi-decade highs due to concerns over government debt [2][11] - Even with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, the US yield curve remains steep, indicating a shift in market focus towards inflation control and government debt management [2][11] Group 3: Economic Insights - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, with the US economy showing steady growth despite a slowdown in consumer spending, supported by investments in AI infrastructure [2][19] - Inflation remains complex, with overall inflation decreasing while commodity inflation has rebounded significantly, particularly in the context of tariffs affecting imported goods [23][25] Group 4: Investment Strategies - BlackRock emphasizes three core investment themes: focusing on current certainties, strategically managing macro risks, and anchoring investments in disruptive trends like AI [3][18] - Tactical asset allocation favors US and Japanese equities, while strategic views are positive on emerging market stocks, infrastructure stocks, and private credit [3][54] - The role of private markets is increasingly significant, with more companies relying on private market financing, highlighting the growing interest in private credit and equity [3][54] Group 5: Sector Performance - The performance of different stock markets varies, with returns in the US driven largely by earnings growth rather than valuation increases, contrasting with markets outside the US where returns are more valuation-driven [37][39] - The AI trend is expected to continue driving corporate earnings growth, which is seen as a key factor for future stock market performance [39][21]