有色金属行业：贵金属避险溢价呈 现结构性上行，资源民族主义抬头 或加剧金属行业供给扰动 2026 年 3 月 2 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 ——美伊冲突点评 事件： 2026 年 2 月 28 日，美国联合以色列对伊朗发动军事打击。3 月 1 日， 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊被确认在美国和以色列的袭击中身亡，伊朗军队对美以 的反击仍在进行。同时，伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，根据国际邮轮流量监测 系统数据，该地区航运已陷入停滞状态。 从短期角度分析，市场对本次美伊冲突已部分计价但波动率市场呈现结构性放 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 -17.7% 16.4% 50.6% 84.7% 118.8% 152.9% 3/3 6/1 8/30 11/28 2/26 有色金属 沪深300 | 分析师：张天丰 | | | --- | --- | | 021-25102914 | zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480520100001 | | 研究助理：闵泓朴 | | | 021-65462553 | minhp-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, and ongoing central bank purchases [3][4] - The current bullish trend in gold is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which collectively support a long-term bullish outlook for gold [3][4] - Short-term price targets for gold are set at $6,000, with expectations of reaching $7,500 within the year and potentially $10,000 by 2029, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [3][4] Group 2 - The gold market is currently experiencing a significant rally, with prices reaching historical highs, although a major correction has occurred recently, which does not alter the overall bullish outlook [3][4] - Technical analysis suggests that while gold prices are in an overbought position and may face short-term correction risks, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for strategic entry points [4] - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices influenced by short-term fluctuations, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook despite potential adjustments [4]

分析人士指出，受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美国政府施压美联储降息、美国消费者信心指数跌幅超预 期、美国联邦政府可能再次陷入"停摆"等多重因素刺激，投资者避险情绪高涨，从而推动黄金价格持续 上涨。 加拿大蒙特利尔银行认为，黄金等避险资产价格强劲上涨反映了全球市场格局的转变，多重不确定性因 素主导了投资者情绪。 此外，由于投资者大量卖出美元，27日美元指数跌至近4年来低点，美元走弱也助推金价上涨。剑桥全 球支付公司首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔表示，美国在关税政策上没有表现出松动迹象，加上美国政府 可能再次陷入"停摆"，经济政策不确定性因此大幅升高，导致"卖出美国"交易再次升温。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 新华社北京1月28日电 国际黄金期货和现货价格北京时间28日双双连续涨破每盎司5200美元和5300美 元重要整数关口，接连创下历史新高。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a slight weakening due to profit-taking and a stabilizing US dollar index, which limits the upward movement of gold prices [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is expected to maintain interest rates, further diminishing the appeal for gold bulls [1] - Despite potential hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, it is unlikely to reverse the current gold price trend, as multiple supportive factors for gold remain in play [3] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, driven by geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and institutional optimism, with expectations of gold prices reaching $5,500 in the short term and potentially $6,000 [3] - There is a possibility of gold prices touching $10,000 before 2030, indicating a strong long-term bullish sentiment [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently strong, operating above the upper Bollinger Band, with support levels providing potential re-entry opportunities for bullish positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has been declining significantly due to multiple investor expectations, reaching a near four-year low, with a notable drop on January 27 [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - On January 27, the dollar index fell by 0.84%, closing at 96.219, and subsequently dropped to 95.55, marking the lowest level since mid-February 2022 [1] - The euro to dollar exchange rate surpassed the 1.20 mark for the first time since 2021, indicating a strong performance of the euro against the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - President Trump expressed confidence in the current performance of the dollar, stating he does not believe it has fallen excessively, which contributed to the rapid decline of the dollar index [1] - There are speculations that the US and Japan may collaborate on foreign exchange market interventions, which has led to a significant strengthening of the yen against the dollar [1] Group 3: Economic Policy Uncertainty - The chief market economist at Capital Economics noted that while there are several factors contributing to the dollar's decline, the primary driver is market expectations regarding potential interventions by the US Treasury in the foreign exchange market [1] - The chief market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments indicated that the US government's lack of regret over tariff policies and the potential for another government shutdown have heightened economic policy uncertainty, leading to increased "sell America" trades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future trajectory of gold prices, questioning whether they will continue to rise or face a significant directional test by 2026, following a historic surge in prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing assets over the past two years, with prices consistently reaching historical highs from 2024 to 2025, significantly outperforming most major asset classes [1]. - In the second half of 2025, gold prices briefly surpassed $4,200 per ounce before experiencing a phase of correction and fluctuating within a high range [1]. Group 2: Inflation Hedge Perspective - Traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, the relationship between gold prices and inflation is more complex than commonly perceived, with academic studies indicating that this correlation is not stable [2][3]. - Research suggests that gold's hedging effect is more pronounced during extreme inflation or periods of currency credit deterioration [3]. Group 3: Long-term Price Trends - Since the 2010s, gold prices have remained above historical average levels, and the deviation from inflation indicators has approached historical extremes since 2022, indicating a potential reduction in the marginal space for significant price increases [5]. - The likelihood of price adjustments or fluctuations is increasing over time as gold's long-term purchasing power and historical valuation perspectives are considered [5]. Group 4: Safe-Haven Asset Dynamics - Gold's status as a safe-haven asset has been challenged, as it has shown weak or even negative correlation with U.S. equities historically, but this trend has weakened since late 2022, with both asset classes rising in tandem [6]. - Investors often use gold to hedge against macroeconomic and political uncertainties, but historical patterns suggest that simultaneous rises in risk and safe-haven assets are typically temporary [9]. Group 5: Interest Rates and Economic Policy Uncertainty - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has become unstable, with recent years showing gold maintaining strength even amid high long-term U.S. Treasury yields [11]. - Economic policy uncertainty has been found to have a greater explanatory power for gold prices than geopolitical events, with significant fluctuations in the global economic policy uncertainty index correlating with gold price movements [13]. Group 6: Dollar Index Influence - The U.S. dollar index, as the basis for gold pricing, plays a crucial role, with a weakening dollar often amplifying gold price increases [15]. - A 10% to 20% phase adjustment in gold prices is not unlikely in the first half of 2026, especially if the U.S. political cycle does not enter a high-risk phase; however, this does not indicate a long-term bear market for gold [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on U.S. equities, citing strong corporate earnings support despite policy-induced volatility and supply constraints [99]. Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. economic activity is being supported by ongoing investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a new anchor for the economy and a driver of current investment returns [21]. - It notes that while the overall inflation rate has decreased, there has been a strong rebound in commodity inflation, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports [14]. - The report emphasizes the need for stable foreign capital to maintain U.S. debt sustainability and warns that rapid supply chain restructuring could cause significant disruptions [10]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The report discusses the significant increase in the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index from 1985 to 2025, indicating a high level of uncertainty affecting economic stability [5][3]. U.S. Fiscal Balance - It presents projections for the U.S. fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP from 1990 to 2034, highlighting a trend of increasing fiscal deficits [8][7]. Trade Policies and Supply Chains - The report outlines two key rules governing U.S. trade policy: the necessity of stable foreign funding for debt sustainability and the potential shocks from rapid supply chain changes [10]. Inflation and Consumer Spending - It notes that inflation in the service sector has begun to rise again after a brief slowdown, with a focus on how economic activity may influence service sector inflation [14]. AI and Economic Growth - The report asserts that AI investments are crucial for supporting U.S. economic growth, with a significant contribution to GDP growth expected from non-residential investments and AI-related sectors [22][28]. Market Performance and Valuation - It highlights that technology sector earnings have been a major driver of U.S. stock market returns, with a focus on the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [28][34]. Tactical Asset Allocation - The report provides tactical asset allocation views, recommending an overweight position in U.S. equities and a neutral stance on European and emerging market equities, while expressing caution regarding U.S. long-term government bonds due to rising debt servicing costs [99][101]. Japanese Market Outlook - The report expresses a positive outlook on the Japanese stock market, driven by corporate governance reforms and increasing share buybacks, while noting that valuations remain low [46][54]. Emerging Market Bonds - It indicates a preference for emerging market bonds, highlighting improvements in credit quality and the potential for higher yields compared to developed market bonds [75][79].

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $4,269 per ounce, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous close of $4,189.90, with an all-time high of $4,358 reached recently [1][4]. Economic Context - The ongoing government shutdown, unresolved trade tensions with China, and new tariffs are contributing factors that may prolong the rise in gold prices [2]. - The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the U.S. remains high, which typically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Price Trends - The current opening price of gold futures is up 6.3% from the opening price of $4,016 one week ago and has increased 16.7% from the opening price of $3,659 a month ago [4]. - Over the past year, gold prices have surged by 57.3% from the opening price of $2,713.70 on October 18, 2024 [4]. Gold Pricing Mechanisms - Gold prices can be quoted in various forms, primarily as spot prices and gold futures prices, with spot prices reflecting the current market price for physical gold [6]. - The spot price is generally lower than the retail price due to additional costs such as refining and dealer overhead [7]. - Gold futures are contracts that require a gold transaction at a predetermined price on a future date, providing liquidity compared to physical gold [8]. Influencing Factors - Key factors affecting gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, indicating that the world economy remains fragile due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and other factors [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from its April forecasts [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% and 4% in the next two years, up by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous predictions [1] - Developed economies are projected to grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with both figures raised by 0.1 percentage points [1] Factors Influencing Economic Outlook - The upward revision in forecasts is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs, which has distorted global economic activity [1] - The IMF warns that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities pose risks to global economic stability [1] Recommendations for Economic Cooperation - The IMF emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to mitigate uncertainties and encourages practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].