Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future trajectory of gold prices, questioning whether they will continue to rise or face a significant directional test by 2026, following a historic surge in prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing assets over the past two years, with prices consistently reaching historical highs from 2024 to 2025, significantly outperforming most major asset classes [1]. - In the second half of 2025, gold prices briefly surpassed $4,200 per ounce before experiencing a phase of correction and fluctuating within a high range [1]. Group 2: Inflation Hedge Perspective - Traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, the relationship between gold prices and inflation is more complex than commonly perceived, with academic studies indicating that this correlation is not stable [2][3]. - Research suggests that gold's hedging effect is more pronounced during extreme inflation or periods of currency credit deterioration [3]. Group 3: Long-term Price Trends - Since the 2010s, gold prices have remained above historical average levels, and the deviation from inflation indicators has approached historical extremes since 2022, indicating a potential reduction in the marginal space for significant price increases [5]. - The likelihood of price adjustments or fluctuations is increasing over time as gold's long-term purchasing power and historical valuation perspectives are considered [5]. Group 4: Safe-Haven Asset Dynamics - Gold's status as a safe-haven asset has been challenged, as it has shown weak or even negative correlation with U.S. equities historically, but this trend has weakened since late 2022, with both asset classes rising in tandem [6]. - Investors often use gold to hedge against macroeconomic and political uncertainties, but historical patterns suggest that simultaneous rises in risk and safe-haven assets are typically temporary [9]. Group 5: Interest Rates and Economic Policy Uncertainty - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has become unstable, with recent years showing gold maintaining strength even amid high long-term U.S. Treasury yields [11]. - Economic policy uncertainty has been found to have a greater explanatory power for gold prices than geopolitical events, with significant fluctuations in the global economic policy uncertainty index correlating with gold price movements [13]. Group 6: Dollar Index Influence - The U.S. dollar index, as the basis for gold pricing, plays a crucial role, with a weakening dollar often amplifying gold price increases [15]. - A 10% to 20% phase adjustment in gold prices is not unlikely in the first half of 2026, especially if the U.S. political cycle does not enter a high-risk phase; however, this does not indicate a long-term bear market for gold [15].

贝莱德 2026年全球投资展望 2025年12月 贝莱德智库 仅供合格境内机构投资者及专业投资者使用，不得公开派发 CBOH1225A/S-5045823-1/27 美国政策频繁转变和高度不确定性导致全球波动显著加剧 自由于美国政策"朝令夕改" ，宏观政策一定程度上引发了经济的混乱，目前的不确定性仍然较高。另一方面，美国政府的财政 赤字不断增加政府的压力。 1985-2025年美国经济政策不确定性指数的表现 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 指数水平 资料来源：贝莱德智库及美国经济政策不确定性指数，数据来自LSEG Datastream，2025年7月。注：线 条表示美国经济政策不确定性指数的30天平均值。该指数结合了报纸文档的自动文本搜索（衡量政策相关 不确定性文章的频率）、即将到期的联邦税法条款的数目以及专业经济预测师之间的分歧。该指数已经归 一化，数值越高表示不确定性越大。如欲了解更多信息，请参阅 https://www.policyuncertainty.com/methodology.html ...

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $4,269 per ounce, reflecting a 1.9% increase from the previous close of $4,189.90, with an all-time high of $4,358 reached recently [1][4]. Economic Context - The ongoing government shutdown, unresolved trade tensions with China, and new tariffs are contributing factors that may prolong the rise in gold prices [2]. - The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the U.S. remains high, which typically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Price Trends - The current opening price of gold futures is up 6.3% from the opening price of $4,016 one week ago and has increased 16.7% from the opening price of $3,659 a month ago [4]. - Over the past year, gold prices have surged by 57.3% from the opening price of $2,713.70 on October 18, 2024 [4]. Gold Pricing Mechanisms - Gold prices can be quoted in various forms, primarily as spot prices and gold futures prices, with spot prices reflecting the current market price for physical gold [6]. - The spot price is generally lower than the retail price due to additional costs such as refining and dealer overhead [7]. - Gold futures are contracts that require a gold transaction at a predetermined price on a future date, providing liquidity compared to physical gold [8]. Influencing Factors - Key factors affecting gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, indicating that the world economy remains fragile due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and other factors [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from its April forecasts [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% and 4% in the next two years, up by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous predictions [1] - Developed economies are projected to grow by 1.5% and 1.6%, with both figures raised by 0.1 percentage points [1] Factors Influencing Economic Outlook - The upward revision in forecasts is attributed to importers stockpiling goods in anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs, which has distorted global economic activity [1] - The IMF warns that high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities pose risks to global economic stability [1] Recommendations for Economic Cooperation - The IMF emphasizes the importance of clear and transparent trade frameworks to mitigate uncertainties and encourages practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high at the beginning of the year but entered a bear market in April due to proposed tariff increases, with the S&P 500 index dropping 20% from its peak [1] - Following the proposed tariff suspension, financial markets rebounded quickly, recovering all losses by mid-May, marking one of the fastest recoveries observed [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market experienced significant volatility, particularly with a sharp sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries starting in April, raising concerns among investors [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.79% on January 14 and dropped to a low of 4.01% by April 4, indicating substantial fluctuations in the bond market [2] - The 30-year Treasury bond mirrored the 10-year bond's performance until late May, when it reached a year-to-date high of 5.08% [4] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions allow bond investors to achieve yields above inflation, making it an attractive environment for fixed-income investments [6] - Municipal bonds are highlighted as particularly appealing for high-tax-bracket clients due to better valuations compared to U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Management - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue over $10 trillion in bonds this year, a scale unprecedented in modern markets, with $12.2 trillion issued in the first five months of 2025, a 0.2% year-on-year increase [7] - As of June 30, the yield curve showed a significant drop in short-term yields, while long-term yields increased, indicating a market preference for shorter maturities [8][9] Fiscal Challenges - Approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature in 2025, representing about one-third of the total U.S. debt market, with a significant portion maturing before July [11] - The Treasury is increasing short-term bond issuance to manage cash flow and maintain liquidity, aiming to keep short-term bonds at around 20% of its portfolio [12] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stabilize between 4% and 5%, which is higher than the standards of the 2010s but still manageable if auction demand remains strong and inflation is controlled [12]

Group 1 - The International Bank for Settlements states that the trend of rising global government debt is "unsustainable" [1] - Increased tariffs may lead to supply chain disruptions and soaring inflation [1] - Uncertainty in U.S. economic policy is suppressing economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is surrounded by significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy, inflation, and interest rate paths, which may lead to increased volatility in the stock market for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Outlook - Despite expectations that trade conflicts will drive inflation higher, the mild consumer and producer price data from May did not support this trend [1] - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, caused a 14% spike in U.S. crude oil futures, raising concerns about inflationary pressures in the bond market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and the Federal Reserve's response is a key driver of the short-term economic and market outlook [1][2] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to provide updated economic and interest rate forecasts, but analysts predict that Chairman Powell will remain vague, emphasizing the need for clearer signals before adjusting rates [2] - There is a warning that the Fed may reduce its 2025 rate cut expectations from two to one [2] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has seen significant fluctuations, with a 19% drop from February to April followed by a nearly 20% rebound in June, indicating that investors may be more resilient to policy surprises [3] - Observers believe that new catalysts, such as a rebound in earnings trends, are necessary for the S&P 500 to reach new highs [2] Investment Strategies - The current environment of economic policy uncertainty is prompting investment strategies focused on diversification, with suggestions to increase non-dollar assets or cash if heavily invested in U.S. equities [2] - The "economic policy uncertainty index" reached a record high in June, indicating that consumers may reduce spending and businesses may cut investments, potentially leading to a recession [2]

Group 1 - HSBC has a positive outlook for the second half of 2025, noting a rebound in trading activity in the US market despite some signs of demand being pulled forward [1] - The bank suggests an overweight position in equities, high-yield bonds, and emerging market bonds, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and a weaker dollar [1] - Historical data indicates that during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, risk assets tend to rebound rather than decline further [1] Group 2 - Market confidence in the US government's tax reduction agenda is waning, with potential agreements in the summer serving as a short-term catalyst for risk asset increases, provided long-term yields do not rise sharply [2] - Downside risks include a rising unemployment rate and US Treasury yields approaching a "danger zone" of 4.7%, which could trigger widespread selling of risk assets [2] - HSBC plans to slightly overweight equities and increase positions during market pullbacks, particularly in US stocks, while maintaining an overweight in emerging markets and high-yield credit [2]

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting concluded in Banff, Alberta, Canada, emphasizing the importance of unity in addressing complex global challenges [1] - The communiqué highlighted a consensus among participants that economic policy uncertainty has declined from its peak, while concerns about unsustainable global macroeconomic imbalances persist [1] - A call to action was issued to combat financial crimes, with Canada committing CAD 4.8 million in new technical assistance to developing economies [1] Group 2 - The G7 agreed to support the World Bank-led initiative to strengthen resilient and inclusive supply chains, with Canada pledging CAD 20 million for this purpose in Latin America and the Caribbean [1] - Participants acknowledged the risks associated with the increase of low-value goods imports into G7 markets [1] - Continued support for Ukraine was reiterated by all parties involved in the meeting [2]