消费领域方面，乔虹表示，2025年以来中国社会消费品零售总额增速约为4%，这一增长主要得益于政 府推出的"以旧换新"补贴计划，重点支持汽车、家电和电子产品等大件商品。不过受去年同期高基数影 响，近几个月相关领域的消费增速有所放缓。 乔虹预计，2026年政府将延续规模约3000亿元人民币的补贴计划，且可能将补贴范围从大件商品扩大至 更多小件商品，进一步支持商品消费；而服务消费相关提振措施最早或于2026年下半年推出。 对于房地产市场，乔虹指出，内地楼市的下行趋势预计将在2026年见底。她对21世纪经济报道记者表 示，一线城市房价有望率先回暖，待其企稳后，复苏态势将逐步传导至二三线城市市场。 12月16日，美银证券大中华首席经济学家乔虹在亚洲及大中华区经济宏观展望会上表示，预计中国2026 年全年GDP增长率将达到4.7%。她同时表示，届时内地有望出台更多逆周期调节政策，以支持经济增 长贴近目标水平。 她进一步分析指出，2026年中国经济增长的动力结构将发生变化，内需的重要性进一步提升，而出口对 增长的拉动作用相较于2025年或有所减弱。 乔虹表示，为持续刺激内需，内地货币政策将会适度宽松。中国人民银行在2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Mizuho Asia Ltd. anticipates that the People's Bank of China will utilize targeted short-term and medium-term tools to supplement liquidity and guide a slight decrease in market repurchase rates in the coming weeks [1][7]. Group 1: Subsidy Program - The Chinese government has confirmed the issuance of the third batch of the "trade-in" subsidy program, expected to allocate approximately 70 billion RMB, which will account for half of the remaining budget for 2025 [2]. - The first two batches of funds released in January and April totaled 162 billion RMB, representing 54% of the annual budget, and have driven consumption of 1.1 trillion RMB, approximately 7 to 8 times the amount of subsidies issued [2][5]. - The upcoming funds are projected to stimulate retail sales exceeding 500 billion RMB in the third quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity - The liquidity tightening observed recently is primarily attributed to a significant issuance of government bonds and typical quarter-end funding pressures, rather than the subsidy program [1][7]. - The net issuance of government bonds in May and June reached approximately 2.9 trillion RMB, which is substantial compared to the 162 billion RMB in subsidies issued [7]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to deploy a series of targeted policy tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to replenish liquidity and guide interbank repurchase rates back to target levels [7].