冰冷的财报数据以及密集的裁员公告，正将德国汽车业的转型阵痛具象为刺骨寒意。继大众集团将2025年营 业利润率最新预期下调近一半之后，宝马集团也紧随其后下调了全年业绩展望，大众集团旗下豪华品牌保时捷甚 至发布了今年第4次盈利预警……曾经支撑起"德国制造"荣光的巨头们，如今在转型浪潮与市场寒意下步履维艰。 再加上美国汽车关税的沉重打击，多重压力使得车企盈利空间持续收窄，下调预期成为无奈的现实选择。 裁员潮的蔓延更让德国汽车业的危机显得触目惊心。继9月底博世集团宣布额外裁减1.3万个工作岗位后，另一家德 国汽车零部件巨头采埃孚在10月1日宣布裁员7600人。而在此前，大众汽车已与工会达成协议，计划2030年前在德 国裁员超过3.5万人。裁员潮已经从主机厂席卷至整个供应链，中小型零部件厂商破产数量同比激增。德国，这个 曾经机器轰鸣不息的欧洲汽车工业"心脏"正逐渐失速。 下调业绩展望"没完没了" 大众集团又一次下调了公司2025年业绩展望。其中，2025年集团营业利润率被下调至2％～3％，而公司此前预期 为4％～5％，分析师预期为4.78％；预计全年汽车净现金流为零，原本预计为10亿～30亿欧元。 这已经不是大众集团今 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that U.S. consumers are expected to bear the burden of $30 billion in auto tariffs, leading to an estimated price increase of approximately $1,760 per vehicle [1] - General Motors and Ford are projected to face tariff impacts of $5 billion and $2.5 billion respectively, with both companies seeking to mitigate these costs through price adjustments [1] - AlixPartners predicts a reduction of about 1 million vehicles in U.S. auto sales over the next three years due to price increases, although sales are expected to rebound to 17 million by 2030, an increase of 1 million from last year [1] Group 2 - AlixPartners forecasts that the 25% auto tariff will eventually decrease to 7.5% for complete vehicles and 5% for parts, aligning with the USMCA agreement [2] - The reduction and elimination of electric vehicle incentives, such as the $7,500 tax credit, are expected to significantly impact consumer behavior, steering buyers away from electric vehicles towards traditional gasoline cars [2] - The forecast for electric vehicle sales has been cut nearly in half, with only 17% of U.S. auto sales expected to be electric by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 31% [2] Group 3 - The policy shift is anticipated to weaken the competitiveness of U.S. automakers, with a sarcastic remark about American manufacturers potentially being the only ones with V8 engines by 2028 [3]